tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post6523444104993580749..comments2024-03-28T22:32:17.248+05:30Comments on Vagaries of the Weather ©: Rajeshhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-87094264382820065132018-10-23T12:23:39.995+05:302018-10-23T12:23:39.995+05:30The dew point has gone down to 11 - 22% relative h...The dew point has gone down to 11 - 22% relative humidity as per the Airport Metar at 12:00 noon today. The humidity levels have finally gone down over Mumbai. Hopefully we should see some reduction in temperatures in evening / night.Nimish Thakerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00119654323581646408noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-12561322869923875432018-10-23T11:11:05.068+05:302018-10-23T11:11:05.068+05:30Credit Australian government bureau of meteorology...Credit Australian government bureau of meteorology <br /><br />Issued 23 October 2018<br /> <br />The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.<br /> <br />El Niño ALERT; positive Indian Ocean Dipole may be underway<br /> <br />ENSO Outlook<br /><br />Our ENSO Outlook provides<br />up-to-date information on the likelihood of an El Niño or La Niña developing.<br /><br />ENSO Alert dial<br />Current status: El Niño ALERT<br />The Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño ALERT, indicating there is approximately a 70% chance of El Niño occurring in 2018—around triple the normal likelihood. In the Indian Ocean, there are signs that a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is underway.<br /><br />An El Niño and a positive IOD increase the likelihood of a dry and warm end to the year across most of Australia. They also raise the risk of heatwaves and bushfire weather in the south, while there are typically fewer tropical cyclones in the Australian region.<br /><br />The surface of the tropical Pacific has warmed over the past month due to weakening of the trade winds. Sub-surface waters also remain warmer than average, increasing the potential for further warming at the surface. However, atmospheric indicators in the tropical Pacific such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), cloudiness and trade winds, are yet to indicate that the ocean and atmosphere have coupled and hence are reinforcing each other. A positive feedback between the ocean and atmosphere is what defines and sustains an El Niño event.<br /><br />International climate models suggest further warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely, increasing the chance of coupling occurring in the coming months. Six of eight models predict that El Niño thresholds will be met or exceeded in November.<br /><br />The IOD index has exceeded the positive threshold (+0.4 °C) for five of the last six weeks. If these values persist for anther fortnight, 2018 will be considered a positive IOD year. Model outlooks suggest the positive IOD event will decay during November. The IOD is linked with drier weather in southern and central Australia during spring, but typically has little influence on Australian climate from December to April.<br />More information<br /><br />Media enquiries: (03) 9669 4057 media@bom.gov.au<br /> <br />Next update expected on 7 November 2018NilaY Wankawalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01044520060781153252noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-20303186328679793392018-10-21T14:54:13.932+05:302018-10-21T14:54:13.932+05:30The phrase "Keeping the views open for the NE...The phrase "Keeping the views open for the NEM commencement." is not looking good.<br /><br />All systems are going either towards Orissa, NE states or Oman/Saudi. Entire south east India (Tamil Nadu, south Andhra Pradesh,south east interior Karnataka) is becoming desert. Geography has to re-written for new desert regions. Almost every year NE monsoon is either failing, or very weak or system goes somewhere else. Only 1 month left.ssethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06630570720915417629noreply@blogger.com