tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post5978433696384791898..comments2024-03-28T14:59:35.045+05:30Comments on Vagaries of the Weather ©: Rajeshhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comBlogger20125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-88602244662182312292016-05-04T22:53:31.935+05:302016-05-04T22:53:31.935+05:30abizer: MW-3 Part 2 will be published by 10.30 pm ...abizer: MW-3 Part 2 will be published by 10.30 pm IST Thursday 5th.<br /><br />Prasad Godase: Yes, we can expect rains in Maharashtra interior from 5th and on 6th and 7th.<br /><br />Neeraj: Western Disturbance M-1 has already "spoilt" the core of the seasonal Low. Will take 4 days to get back to normal.<br />I am expecting M-2 from 12th, and seems a stronger one. A bit early to say, possibly strong.Rajeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-20615761809758833632016-05-04T20:47:31.714+05:302016-05-04T20:47:31.714+05:30Currently experiencing a WD. Will it play 'spo...Currently experiencing a WD. Will it play 'spoilsport' for seasonal low ? must certainly disturb things there.Neerajhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04482856670300630431noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-4970643217087657222016-05-04T20:29:34.253+05:302016-05-04T20:29:34.253+05:30And For madhya maharashtra Rain Forecast Same or a...And For madhya maharashtra Rain Forecast Same or any changes for 5,6 and 7 may.Prasadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08626297112156485413noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-49170591839466265152016-05-04T18:55:18.841+05:302016-05-04T18:55:18.841+05:30Sir tommorow wheb will you publish MW-3 part (2)?Sir tommorow wheb will you publish MW-3 part (2)?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00224077311647775592noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-6199348909520843432016-05-04T12:41:59.714+05:302016-05-04T12:41:59.714+05:30Zohair: No chances of rain for KHI...Zohair: No chances of rain for KHI...Rajeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-35787012059992725942016-05-04T12:40:00.577+05:302016-05-04T12:40:00.577+05:30Khyati: I have been writing and concentrating on t...Khyati: I have been writing and concentrating on the Mw series. Each MW article takes 3/4 days to compile and write it in proper order. Getting less time on daily weather now.In addition, i need to study and follow every parameter in details, as much as possible. Rajeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-4993465234273199082016-05-04T11:41:11.886+05:302016-05-04T11:41:11.886+05:30LWD rains have started so as moisture incursion ha...LWD rains have started so as moisture incursion have started.it will help parameter 2Narayanan chennaihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01062318714588165725noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-70569570813830433372016-05-04T06:05:03.669+05:302016-05-04T06:05:03.669+05:30Sir what's the forecast for weather in Mumbai....Sir what's the forecast for weather in Mumbai..Sir no updates from you part so many daysKHYATI PANDIThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16209261320698185674noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-36957970772254313402016-05-03T10:50:28.349+05:302016-05-03T10:50:28.349+05:30Sir, do u see chances for karachi during coming WD...Sir, do u see chances for karachi during coming WD? 4 to 6th May?Zohairhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15257726219820360313noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-21490044780028856112016-05-02T22:50:28.485+05:302016-05-02T22:50:28.485+05:30srikanth: I have given my views on the likely expe...srikanth: I have given my views on the likely expectations of the MJO...and that should help the Bay branch 3rd week of May.<br />Generally, the Arabian sea high pressure can remain upto end May, without actually disturbing the Monsoon. The MOnsoon arrives from the Maldives to Sri Lanka by 24th May.<br /><br />Moshin: There is always a chance for a cyclone in Arabian Sea in end June. <br />Rajeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-43069708919439332272016-05-02T22:02:36.874+05:302016-05-02T22:02:36.874+05:30Hi rajesh sir.
Any chances of cyclone in arabian s...Hi rajesh sir.<br />Any chances of cyclone in arabian sea before onest of monsoon.Mohsin mullahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06450461757360526311noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-26201175369914430612016-05-02T21:21:44.615+05:302016-05-02T21:21:44.615+05:30Ok sir and thanks a lot as prompt as ever your rep...Ok sir and thanks a lot as prompt as ever your replies to queries....NilaY Wankawalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01044520060781153252noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-12129633058356457242016-05-02T20:45:37.554+05:302016-05-02T20:45:37.554+05:30Nilay: I am glad you noticed this "anomaly&qu...Nilay: I am glad you noticed this "anomaly"...and it was obviously staring at us as something very odd...SOI going _ve ? Was waiting for some extra careful observant :-)<br />We have to be cautious of these "violent " falls in the Cyclone season..fluctuations of the SOI during Australia's northern wet season (October-April) are not unusual as the passage of tropical systems near Darwin and Tahiti affects atmospheric pressure<br /><br />It is temporary, and will reflect back to normalcy next week. The 90 day SOI is -13.2Rajeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-70344432387390560842016-05-02T18:00:30.789+05:302016-05-02T18:00:30.789+05:30sir parameter 1 ENSO
Sustained positive values of...sir parameter 1 ENSO<br /><br />Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 typically indicate La Niña while sustained negative values below −7 typically indicate El Niño. Values between about +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.<br /><br />I am confused since I read in morning .......<br /><br />But, (SOI) has become negative over the past two weeks, with values returning to neutral bounds. <br /><br />Sir it has fallen further from -7.5 to -20.<br /><br />Should we watch positively? or is it values returning TO neutral bounds or values returning FROM neutral bounds?NilaY Wankawalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01044520060781153252noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-44053781043473226952016-05-02T14:38:17.222+05:302016-05-02T14:38:17.222+05:30thank u so much sir for ur explanation ....i know ...thank u so much sir for ur explanation ....i know the concept but some words confused me...thnk u sir for clear my doubts .....Ankihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12839899399871972319noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-67976598340654626522016-05-02T13:44:07.450+05:302016-05-02T13:44:07.450+05:30Ankit: In simple terms, it means the jet stream at...Ankit: In simple terms, it means the jet stream at 200 hpa has diverted direction a bit in between 19N and 34N , which is the main flow, to flow in from the North East. This has changed as a rough has formed in the East.<br />The maximum core winds are at 128 kts over the Punjab region.<br /><br />Change of direction to finally Easterlies is seen in jet streams in peak Monsoon time. We should expect a gradual change soon.Rajeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-68299001502384914722016-05-02T12:00:18.709+05:302016-05-02T12:00:18.709+05:30" The 200 Jet Streams too, show some awkward ..." The 200 Jet Streams too, show some awkward anomaly, in the last week. <br />The 200 hpa Jet Streams: core was located between Lat.19°N & Lat. 34°N with the wind speed varying between 65 kts & 128 kts around 200 hPa. The highest wind speed of 128 kts was recorded over Patiala on 21st April at 203 hPa".....which core are u talking about sir?? i mean wt this actually mean?? pls explain in simple language.... <br /><br />Ankihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12839899399871972319noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-89932849285291814442016-05-02T08:40:52.096+05:302016-05-02T08:40:52.096+05:30Thanks for the detailed and well illustrated write...Thanks for the detailed and well illustrated write up. As always, your analysis help in learning as well as informing!Atul P Naikhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16721754616918324487noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-62188132885587309632016-05-02T07:32:49.725+05:302016-05-02T07:32:49.725+05:30Thank you Sir for another good explanation on the ...Thank you Sir for another good explanation on the current scenario. The MJO forecast from various models show some inconsistency with the likes of POAMA expecting weak amplitude for the first fortnight. How much do you think it is likely to influence the possible evolution of tropical disturbance in North Indian Ocean. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016050118/gfs_mslp_uv850_ind_53.png Around middle of May we are seeing the trade winds reach some velocity in the Bay Branch but the High Pressure in the Arabian Sea continues to hold strong. What is your take on this Sir?Srikanthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05187934773147266718noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-74985231243512938092016-05-02T06:30:02.929+05:302016-05-02T06:30:02.929+05:30Battling with negative factors over weighing posit...Battling with negative factors over weighing positive ones,let's hope part 2 MW 3 swings the factors positively. ...keeping fingers crossed....Thanks for a lovely write up ...juSt lil curious jet streams factor is numbered 5 but in summary only 4 factors +/- considered. I guess this factor along with other ones would play part later in your MW series. ..NilaY Wankawalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01044520060781153252noreply@blogger.com