tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post5818570681043035587..comments2024-03-28T14:59:35.045+05:30Comments on Vagaries of the Weather ©: Rajeshhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-24177618767662426792016-06-21T12:17:15.099+05:302016-06-21T12:17:15.099+05:30Both JAMSTEC and Australian Agency have forecasted...Both JAMSTEC and Australian Agency have forecasted negative IOD , which in turns means a drier monsoon for the western coast .<br /><br />Rajesh Sir, Based on your experience , how much important is IOD for monsoon for Konkan and western maharastra, are the signs bad from an overall monsoon picture ?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18266908479329414697noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-74684190254234456722016-06-21T10:53:58.984+05:302016-06-21T10:53:58.984+05:30Credit Australian government Bureau of meteorology...Credit Australian government Bureau of meteorology <br /><br />Latest ENSO Wrap-Up issued 21 June 2016<br /><br />The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.<br /> <br />Chance of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole event increases<br />The tropical Pacific Ocean remains in a neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state—neither El Niño nor La Niña—with all ocean and atmospheric indicators now near normal.<br /><br />Recent observations and climate model forecasts continue to suggest La Niña may develop in the coming months, hence the Bureau’s ENSO Outlook remains at La Niña WATCH. This means there is a 50% likelihood of La Niña developing during the second half of 2016. If La Niña does develop, climate models suggest it is unlikely to reach levels seen in the most recent event of 2010–12, which was one of the strongest La Niña events on record.<br /><br />La Niña is typically associated with higher than usual winter and spring rainfall over northern, central and eastern Australia, and cooler than normal daytime temperatures south of the tropics.<br /><br />Warm ocean temperatures to the north of Australia, in the Indian Ocean, and in the Tasman Sea, are also currently influencing Australia’s climate. Warm ocean temperatures surrounding Australia provide more moisture to weather systems that pass over the oceans and potentially change the path weather systems take, resulting in more systems reaching the continent.<br /><br />Warm ocean temperatures to the northwest of Australia can be associated with a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), especially when they occur at the same time as cooler than usual ocean in the tropical western Indian Ocean, near the African coast. Climate models and current observations suggest a negative IOD may be in the early stages of development. However several more weeks of similar ocean temperature patterns would need to be observed before 2016 is considered a negative IOD year. Negative IOD events typically bring higher than usual winter and spring rainfall to southern Australia.NilaY Wankawalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01044520060781153252noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-13139821415864439212016-06-21T09:53:14.680+05:302016-06-21T09:53:14.680+05:30Strong thunderstorms lashed western suburbs of Mum...Strong thunderstorms lashed western suburbs of Mumbai now partly cloudy with sunny intervals pressure was at 1000 now it's 1003 with south easterly winds Hrishikeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05732278309377500062noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-5716396333302224842016-06-21T07:37:50.487+05:302016-06-21T07:37:50.487+05:30Sir mumbai recorded torrential rains monday overni...Sir mumbai recorded torrential rains monday overnight,scz-106mm,colaba -61mm till now.whats your forecast for mumbai and north konkan.its absolutely dry in pen,nagothane from monday morning till now and mumbai getting heavy rains.<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00224077311647775592noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-42505434962274536042016-06-21T07:06:38.449+05:302016-06-21T07:06:38.449+05:30Navi Mumbai non stop torrential rains entire night...Navi Mumbai non stop torrential rains entire night - must be crossing classical 3 digit figure!ssethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06630570720915417629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-26792494308086503712016-06-20T23:55:08.169+05:302016-06-20T23:55:08.169+05:30Hoping that it rains heavy in north konkan as well...Hoping that it rains heavy in north konkan as well in coming days.Vinod Desaihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14437335217298178735noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-68484949760508126172016-06-20T22:10:49.951+05:302016-06-20T22:10:49.951+05:30
2015 june MAHA/GUJ rains - from vageries blogs - ...<br />2015 june MAHA/GUJ rains - from vageries blogs - see GUJ/MAHA floods<br /><br />http://www.vagaries.in/2015_06_01_archive.html<br />ssethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06630570720915417629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-56640194036327070072016-06-20T10:55:41.256+05:302016-06-20T10:55:41.256+05:30Sir, Nothing significant here in pune till now. Fe...Sir, Nothing significant here in pune till now. Few drizzles. When can pune expect good rains? Can you please share your views on next UAC which may get developed in few days. Will it have good impact on pune and ghat sections? Ghats sections are also not yet in their usual behaviour yet.Atulhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08917549740899173606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-22248867120789079752016-06-20T09:16:45.580+05:302016-06-20T09:16:45.580+05:30Rajesh sir,with this pace ,do you think Mumbai wil...Rajesh sir,with this pace ,do you think Mumbai will be able to cross its monthly average (june) of 523mm?Will north konkan and mumbai get heavy rains with merely 10days remaining for june's end?you forecasted excess of 10%in jun-jul.please tell when would our region get bounty rains in next 10 days.please answer.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00224077311647775592noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-3586229255539678772016-06-20T07:14:57.026+05:302016-06-20T07:14:57.026+05:30Thanks a lot sir. SWM made Very soft and silent en...Thanks a lot sir. SWM made Very soft and silent entry to mumbai :-)NilaY Wankawalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01044520060781153252noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-894371881883237742016-06-20T01:26:16.114+05:302016-06-20T01:26:16.114+05:30Rajesh sir- even though El Niño has ended why are ...Rajesh sir- even though El Niño has ended why are we not seeing the low pressure areas in BOB??Vijith Menonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09230260635872445141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-70250315446222996392016-06-20T01:23:01.837+05:302016-06-20T01:23:01.837+05:30Rajesh sir- when we will have strong and sustained...Rajesh sir- when we will have strong and sustained heavy monsoon rains in Mumbai and surrounding areas<br />The water situation is very serious nowVijith Menonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09230260635872445141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-57173942399106501572016-06-20T00:11:44.242+05:302016-06-20T00:11:44.242+05:30Any heavy rain forecast for Pune?Any heavy rain forecast for Pune?Rohithttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06240710092244653833noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-44036829130943810612016-06-19T23:46:07.165+05:302016-06-19T23:46:07.165+05:30Sir, what about Valsad and south Gujarat?Sir, what about Valsad and south Gujarat?Nilesh Ladhadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10983535121840914935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-31383148428471227552016-06-19T20:47:10.734+05:302016-06-19T20:47:10.734+05:30Very much awaited sir....Very much awaited sir....NilaY Wankawalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01044520060781153252noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-38615652450870484022016-06-19T20:31:10.793+05:302016-06-19T20:31:10.793+05:30Also forecast sir.Also forecast sir.Nilesh Ladhadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10983535121840914935noreply@blogger.com