tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post5620714311080096743..comments2024-03-28T14:59:35.045+05:30Comments on Vagaries of the Weather ©: Rajeshhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-13750394138887781522023-05-09T10:59:14.360+05:302023-05-09T10:59:14.360+05:30Credit Australian government Bureau of metereology...Credit Australian government Bureau of metereology <br /><br /><br />Issued Tuesday 9 May 2023<br /><br /> <br /><br />The latest Climate Driver Update and Climate Model Summary are now available on our website.<br /><br />El Niño WATCH – tropical Pacific warming but little atmospheric response<br /><br />The ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño WATCH. The eastern and central tropical Pacific continues to warm with little to no shift towards El Niño in atmospheric ENSO indicators. <br /><br />Six of the seven International models indicate El Niño thresholds will be met or exceeded from July, with all models meeting thresholds by August.<br />The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. All five models suggest that a positive IOD event may develop by June. A positive IOD typically supresses winter and spring rainfall over much of Australia, and if it occurs with El Niño, it can exacerbate the drying effect.<br /><br />A strong Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) pulse lies over the Maritime Continent and is forecast to move into the western Pacific region in the next few days which may weaken trade winds across the equatorial Pacific Ocean and potentially push the Pacific Ocean and atmosphere more towards El Niño thresholds.<br /><br />The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is currently positive and is expected to return to neutral towards the end of May. Positive SAM in winter often has a drying influence for parts of south-west and south-east Australia, but has little rainfall influence in autumn. <br /><br />More information<br /><br /> Media liaison (03) 9669 4057<br /> Technical enquiries helpdesk.climate@bom.gov.au<br />Next update expected by 23 May 2023NilaY Wankawalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01044520060781153252noreply@blogger.com