tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post4840256375714157619..comments2024-03-28T22:32:17.248+05:30Comments on Vagaries of the Weather ©: Rajeshhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-62120249462109449312015-03-17T11:05:20.346+05:302015-03-17T11:05:20.346+05:30ENSO wrap up from bureau of metereology Australia....ENSO wrap up from bureau of metereology Australia.17 03 2015.<br />Tropical cyclone activity may lead to further ocean warmingThe past fortnight has seen unusual conditions in the tropical Pacific, which may increase the chance of El Niño in 2015.In the western Pacific, severe tropical cyclone Pam and tropical storm Bavi straddled the equator, producing one of the strongest reversals in the trade winds in recent years. This change is expected to increase the already warm sub-surface temperatures currently observed in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which may in turn raise tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures in the coming months. However, it remains too early to say whether the reversal in the trade winds is a short term fluctuation or the beginning of a sustained trend.International models surveyed by the Bureau have strengthened their outlooks for the likelihood of El Niño, with all eight models suggesting ocean temperatures will exceed El Niño thresholds by mid-year. However, model outlooks spanning the traditional ENSO transition period, February to May, generally have lower accuracy than outlooks made at other times of year.The Bureau's ENSO Tracker remains at El Niño WATCH. This is due to a combination of warmer-than-average sub-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean and models indicating that central and eastern tropical Pacific will warm to El Niño thresholds by mid-year. An El Niño WATCH indicates that there is about a 50% chance of El Niño forming in 2015—double the normal likelihood of an event.El Niño is often associated with below-average winter–spring rainfall over eastern Australia and above-average daytime temperatures over the southern half of Australia.NilaY Wankawalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01044520060781153252noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-91989620946824999942015-03-15T02:22:24.332+05:302015-03-15T02:22:24.332+05:30Thnx Sir. Nice explanationThnx Sir. Nice explanationAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18160569670992564421noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-62140057342487074852015-03-14T23:58:33.146+05:302015-03-14T23:58:33.146+05:30Raj Katalkar: Monsoon rains of course come from Sw...Raj Katalkar: Monsoon rains of course come from Sw as monsoon winds . They are seasonal and chnage direction from SE to SW after crosssing equator. Off season, also we get major rains from SW, as they are induced by Lows in central India. I have explained this low coming on Friday/Saturday in this post. So, the air rushes towards the Low. Mumbai gets thunder storms in the beginning of Monsoon and end of Monsoon from East. This is because the thunder cells form over the ghats and drift towards Mumbai.<br /><br />Hrishikesh: Current rains are due to the induced low over central India. Explained in this post as coming from M-3. April ? It is beyond my capacity and knowledge to forecast 1 month in advance :-)Rajeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-19976649719365574122015-03-14T17:28:13.966+05:302015-03-14T17:28:13.966+05:30Sir what is the forecast up ahead for mumbai and w...Sir what is the forecast up ahead for mumbai and what are the views on current rains maybe we will get again in AprilHrishikeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05732278309377500062noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-21651806475154352712015-03-14T15:15:15.105+05:302015-03-14T15:15:15.105+05:30South and west are the directions from where Mumba...South and west are the directions from where Mumbai and Konkan areas mainly receives Rains during Monsoons and unseasonably also. Very rare from East and North. Sir, Why we are getting rains usually from these directions only?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18160569670992564421noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-67344961547883705572015-03-14T15:11:03.685+05:302015-03-14T15:11:03.685+05:30Rains with Thunders early morning around 4-5am her...Rains with Thunders early morning around 4-5am here in South-central Mumbai?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18160569670992564421noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-45699749990962812942015-03-14T14:15:19.193+05:302015-03-14T14:15:19.193+05:30hope the ghat and the western parts including navi...hope the ghat and the western parts including navi mumbai are under evergreen vegetation..so no rains required for making them more greener...Pavanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01900714294169189482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-81070290190239659652015-03-14T14:10:58.406+05:302015-03-14T14:10:58.406+05:30ya sset agreed with your comment two day heavy rai...ya sset agreed with your comment two day heavy rains had made situation totally grim...farmers are in huge loses in state...no summer only hottest places are from the state...Pavanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01900714294169189482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-75684139307910026362015-03-14T13:59:18.340+05:302015-03-14T13:59:18.340+05:30What an start for the day.. Woke up at 6am with hu...What an start for the day.. Woke up at 6am with huge thunder sound. Badlapur received two TS back to back. 1st TS gave thick drop light rain with huge lightning and loud thundering from 6.15am to 6.45am. Then 2nd TS came from 7.15am to 7.45am which was more intense with huge vertical lightning strike & ear crackling thunder and with very gusty South winds.Abhijit Modakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08373516043657476859noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-66760163294195428662015-03-14T09:19:47.846+05:302015-03-14T09:19:47.846+05:30Western disturbances are increasingly becoming str...Western disturbances are increasingly becoming stronger for past 4-5 years. Erstwhile dry areas like RAJ,Haryana,GUJ are increasingly becoming wetter - apart from regular monsoons. Myself still have same opinion driest regions of India - South east India -> Rayalseema(AP),SE interior KAR,interiors of TN - much left to mercy of ever failing NE monsoons... ssethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06630570720915417629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-8339542965080171362015-03-14T07:16:48.939+05:302015-03-14T07:16:48.939+05:30Navi Mumbai very heavy lightings + thunderstorms e...Navi Mumbai very heavy lightings + thunderstorms early dawn... looks like start of SWM. Maharashtra has received rains throughout the year...Very windy now - entire landscape has become dense greemssethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06630570720915417629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-38428505256574808262015-03-14T04:47:16.618+05:302015-03-14T04:47:16.618+05:30Extremely loud thunder storm and heavy rain in Wes...Extremely loud thunder storm and heavy rain in Western mumbaiHrishikeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05732278309377500062noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-9420289590600567532015-03-13T00:06:55.308+05:302015-03-13T00:06:55.308+05:30vikas: Thanks for the information. Expect rains ag...vikas: Thanks for the information. Expect rains again in Ujjain on Saturday night and Sunday Afternoon.Rajeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-36468319777859377472015-03-12T23:55:06.405+05:302015-03-12T23:55:06.405+05:30This comment has been removed by the author.vikas hunk gayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05296815380012816458noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-74696262185140489092015-03-12T23:49:00.275+05:302015-03-12T23:49:00.275+05:30This comment has been removed by the author.vikas hunk gayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05296815380012816458noreply@blogger.com