tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post4479882496309026078..comments2024-03-28T22:32:17.248+05:30Comments on Vagaries of the Weather ©: Rajeshhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-66788467576966803902012-04-28T21:27:29.618+05:302012-04-28T21:27:29.618+05:30This year surprising Guj/Raj are much cooler and i...This year surprising Guj/Raj are much cooler and infact no droughts for past 5years. KAR/AP we know are in severe droughts.ssethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06630570720915417629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-83690082498994043032012-04-28T21:24:33.738+05:302012-04-28T21:24:33.738+05:30Excellent blog from inter-active site by Ananth.
...Excellent blog from inter-active site by Ananth.<br /><br />Gujarat and Rajisthan from past 5 years have been receiving more rains. We can see Vortex,UAC and monsoon axis. But at the same time entire interior Karnataka, Rayalseema AP,TN are receiving very less rains and are towards desertification. Infact I have seen from June-Sept there is no rain in much of southern state - they are towards desertification. Maharashtra since last few years has emerged as intense rain spot with Mumbai as rainiest city and Amboli as most extreme rain spot overtaking Cherrapunji.In next next few years deserts may disappear from Raj/Guj but start appearing in Kar/AP/TN. It is time our scientist analyze this trend. <br /><br /><br />"" But, I felt the need to go a bit in detail, and probe into ananth's point of view.And this is what I saw:<br /><br />1. Last 5 years trend of Kutch and Saurashtra: 2005, 2006, 2007: Both +ve by 10-20%, 2008: Kutch +10%, Saurashtra +30%. 2009 :Kutch -10%, Saurashtra +10%, 2010: Both +ve by 20-30%.<br /><br /><br />NE States: 2005, 2006: -30%, 2007:-10%. 2008, 2009:-20/30%, 2010:-15-20%.<br /><br /><br />The reasons are understood. All systems , UACs and lows from the Bay travel only Westwards and plough thru central India into Gujarat. Hardly a rare system has moved North into Bangladesh and cureve into the NE states. <br />Another change these last few years. When we should be seeing 2/3 depressions from the Bay in June and another 2/3 in July, we have UAcs coming, and pouring depression like rains. BUT, these rains somehow do not commence from the states of entry, thatis Orissa or North A.P. They pick up only after the system tracks inland, with the help of Upper Air Circulations at 700 mb and 850 mb. Though UACs have never been un common or rare, these last 2/3 years they have been dominating, which is not common. Well, I see some trends taking a particular route , no doubt. And this year too, the same trend seems to be continuing. But, it has happened before too. May be a cyclic change . Over the years, I have records of Gujarat getting heavy rains many times in the past. Take Bhuj for example...Do you know what is heavest fall there in a 24 hr time frame ? It is 468 mms ! In July 1959. The same year the year's total reached 1311 mms in Bhuj.Nalliya, Kutch had 294 mms in a day on 12 th August 1979 !1959 was harsh on Kutch.Nalliya had total rainfall of 1398 mms.Why, last year itself, overall ,yes NE states were low on rain, but Cherrapunji received extra heavy rains with 13511 mms.<br /><br />But, we cannot come to any conclusion now, not in 3/4 years of happening.""ssethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06630570720915417629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-8819995849867349732012-04-27T11:06:40.722+05:302012-04-27T11:06:40.722+05:30Junaid:No Junaid, in fact Western Mah and Marathwa...Junaid:No Junaid, in fact Western Mah and Marathwada are prone to heavy pre monsoon thunder showers. Pune, Nasik, Nagar and all cities south and Satara dist and all of Marathwada do get pre monsoon thundershowers , normally from 3rd week april onwards..Rajeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-44272240716440750012012-04-27T00:51:04.621+05:302012-04-27T00:51:04.621+05:30@rajesh the seasonal trough ,,never intrudes in we...@rajesh the seasonal trough ,,never intrudes in western parts of maharshtra rytt???because i have observed that that most of maharshtra and entire gujarat are unfavourable locations for premonsoon rainfall,,,rarely they receive rain during april-mayjunaidnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-77238158411880060752012-04-26T20:50:32.537+05:302012-04-26T20:50:32.537+05:30Rajan - it just rained 6mm in Bangalore, this is j...Rajan - it just rained 6mm in Bangalore, this is just a drop compared to extreme drought entire Karnataka is facing. Couple of days back Bangalore was about to touch 39-40degrees. Problem here is Bangalore locals have never seen Mumbai kind of rains wherein in a day it dumps around 400-500mm of rain!!!!<br /><br />What Karanataka requires now is torrential rains for atleast 3months for agriculture to start, rivers to fill and ofcourse Bangalore should not abuse nature- protect its lakes and plant trees. Lesson for BBMP,BMRCL,BDAssethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06630570720915417629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-53395699131723104612012-04-26T20:49:11.213+05:302012-04-26T20:49:11.213+05:30Rajan - it just rained 6mm in Bangalore, this is j...Rajan - it just rained 6mm in Bangalore, this is just a drop compared to extreme drought entire Karnataka is facing. Couple of days back Bangalore was about to touch 39-40degrees. Problem here is Bangalore locals have never seen Mumbai kind of rains wherein in a day it dumps around 400-500mm of rain!!!!<br /><br />What Karanataka requires now is torrential rains for atleast 3months for agriculture to start, rivers to fill and ofcourse Bangalore should not abuse nature- protect its lakes and plant trees. Lesson for BBMP,BMRCL,BDAssethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06630570720915417629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-20794910638039917662012-04-26T12:48:50.296+05:302012-04-26T12:48:50.296+05:30Rajan:Thanks, and a compliment from you certainly ...Rajan:Thanks, and a compliment from you certainly means a lot to me..your patronising Vagaries holds value for the blog.<br />Will also be refering to your blog when I put up MW-4 on the 2nd of May for quantum forecast. <br />emkay: system to move N/NE..read on current weather page.Rajeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-23523673205945229342012-04-26T10:38:59.832+05:302012-04-26T10:38:59.832+05:30Will 91A take Oman direction seeing warmer waters ...Will 91A take Oman direction seeing warmer waters in West Arabian Sea ?emkayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10678383518576804084noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-89274511966790253612012-04-25T19:36:51.285+05:302012-04-25T19:36:51.285+05:30imd press conference tom at 4pm regarding the mons...imd press conference tom at 4pm regarding the monsoon prediction...Ronhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15946827452706347910noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-60176189564011504582012-04-25T17:04:14.712+05:302012-04-25T17:04:14.712+05:30Awesome Rajesh. As you previously predicted we had...Awesome Rajesh. As you previously predicted we had good rains in Bangalore and I hope like you further precyed, it will last till Saturday.<br /><br />Keep up these postings.Rajan Alexanderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07496301416048254072noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-89117417915308049292012-04-25T12:47:48.542+05:302012-04-25T12:47:48.542+05:30Ananth:I have answered Ron to a similar question. ...Ananth:I have answered Ron to a similar question. Please see the "comments" below MW-2.You will get your answer there.Thanks.Rajeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-52928105990317386632012-04-25T12:29:59.118+05:302012-04-25T12:29:59.118+05:30useful update, i am curious Rajesh, do you also fa...useful update, i am curious Rajesh, do you also factor in the Idnian IOD in your MW series. If yes, does it play a role in Monsoon onset ?<br /><br />Regards, AnanthAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com