tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post3703330400491256115..comments2024-03-28T22:32:17.248+05:30Comments on Vagaries of the Weather ©: Rajeshhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comBlogger23125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-64412046401829556432012-06-15T10:51:23.669+05:302012-06-15T10:51:23.669+05:30Whether forecasted low pressure in NW BOB can give...Whether forecasted low pressure in NW BOB can give rainfall in Gujarat?Shitijnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-87471709199006322572012-06-15T10:45:52.342+05:302012-06-15T10:45:52.342+05:30after a hiatus of 4 days monsoon clouds r back at ...after a hiatus of 4 days monsoon clouds r back at panvel!!!!so rleived to see the grey low clouds coming from south west and spreading their magic!!!!i guess offshore trough must be realigning!!!junaidnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-17898700196524405352012-06-15T10:33:39.308+05:302012-06-15T10:33:39.308+05:30A bleak situation as far as the Arabian Sea wing o...A bleak situation as far as the Arabian Sea wing of SWM goes !! But I was hoping for a better start to the Bay wing considering the fact that last year too Bay did not really host many lows. Over all if you look at it tendency of things to move eastwards - Burma/ NEast. Even Pacific storms are veering North Eastwards.<br />Praying this tendency gets arrested and tropical storms move westwards sending pulse into the Bay. If El-Nino sets in, we should be seeing series of storms in the China Sea. Am I right Rajesh ?<br /><br />Returning to West coast of the country, wondering why IMD has not rung the alarm bell !! BMC has start immediate water cuts in Mumbai. Heard from Kerala that Idukki Dam has just 10 days of water left.<br /><br />Overall Monsoon adding to the overall cynicism in the Nation.emkayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10678383518576804084noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-72930861224937275852012-06-15T09:33:07.812+05:302012-06-15T09:33:07.812+05:30now even the imd is predicting a low pressure in N...now even the imd is predicting a low pressure in NW BOB...so hopefully good rains in Central India..Ronhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15946827452706347910noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-13454801551726237742012-06-14T23:55:55.074+05:302012-06-14T23:55:55.074+05:30Oops! Should have said moving towards Mumbai from ...Oops! Should have said moving towards Mumbai from the NE. Some thing similar happened in gujrat yesterday.. giving them good rains.. (Guj 124% and SAUKUTCH 331% above normal!!)GSBnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-493260441743029982012-06-14T23:54:14.313+05:302012-06-14T23:54:14.313+05:30CA NILAY RAJNIKANT WANKAWALA/GSB : Thanks for the ...CA NILAY RAJNIKANT WANKAWALA/GSB : Thanks for the kind words and your encouragement.<br />Welcome to Vagaries' family, and i do hope to receive your comments and views to give a wider outlook to Vagaries.<br />Monsoon is sluggish, and with the MJO factor worrying us now, we have to wait and see...Rajeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-80228469931533164152012-06-14T23:50:13.879+05:302012-06-14T23:50:13.879+05:30A huge cloud formation moving towards Mumbai. Will...A huge cloud formation moving towards Mumbai. Will it rain tomorrow (Fri the 15th)?.<br /><br />Excellent analysis @Rajesh saar!! Feel like a kid waiting to see Harry Potter for a few years and the theatre doors are finally open.....GSBnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-34944956885540607582012-06-14T23:38:39.028+05:302012-06-14T23:38:39.028+05:30sure ron/pavan: I'll write a short note on vis...sure ron/pavan: I'll write a short note on visual obseravtions (crude method as per todays std) tom.<br />shall put it by night on inter active page...Rajeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-38755285728669504932012-06-14T23:26:40.438+05:302012-06-14T23:26:40.438+05:30wow..this is interesting..didn't know about th...wow..this is interesting..didn't know about these cloud patterns..Could you tell us more in brief pls rajesh sir??Ronhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15946827452706347910noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-72826636398474395192012-06-14T23:10:48.616+05:302012-06-14T23:10:48.616+05:30Thnx sir really a good information, in days 2 come...Thnx sir really a good information, in days 2 come u can publish books on meterolgy for common man, hope u considr my suggestionPavannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-46757573516206296922012-06-14T23:02:04.008+05:302012-06-14T23:02:04.008+05:30Pavan: when I did not have the computers, and othe...Pavan: when I did not have the computers, and other fast forecasting methods, even Sat images were rare, and could get them 1 day late, I managed and forecasted the weather then by visual observations. I am talking of the early 70s, 40 years back.<br />A deep blue sky, with sharp outlined clouds means good moisture in the atmos, and less dust particles. Generally observed during an approaching low or depression, or in case of a "front"<br />generally indicating approaching rains, specially if clouds are alto cumulus (dotted). But a faded light blue sky, where the clouds are not prominently seen or hazed, means no moisture and rains fading away, (munmbai today on Thursday).<br />A sunset showing deep red colouring heralds unstable weather while a plain sunset with a dull orange on the horizon shows fair weather.<br />Yellow sunset means storm.<br />This is brief..can make a seperate note later if required.Rajeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-66455111471980796042012-06-14T22:46:06.834+05:302012-06-14T22:46:06.834+05:30Ron: El-Nino may not worry us now..for the time be...Ron: El-Nino may not worry us now..for the time being..but cant say about the MJO ..<br />Rajan/Pradeep: Yes, Pradeep/Rajan, really worried and concerned about the MJO..indirectly we have already had a "break Monsoon from 5-15th June..like i mentioned in vagaries..and dont see really meaningfull rains in the west coast after the coming UAC fades away..-:<br />RK: yes these high temps were expected again in Delhi..dont see relief soon..Rajeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-73265586897012158462012-06-14T21:21:15.467+05:302012-06-14T21:21:15.467+05:30And Mumbai rainfall ....hmmm.... Rajesh....it will...And Mumbai rainfall ....hmmm.... Rajesh....it will be hard for mumbai to get to 550 mm mark in june. Anything above 300-400 is bonus for mumbai in june.Pradeephttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17355802908759787091noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-51624630841202518132012-06-14T21:03:56.672+05:302012-06-14T21:03:56.672+05:30Dear Rajesh,
I agree with what Rajan Alexander s...Dear Rajesh, <br /><br />I agree with what Rajan Alexander said and MJO forecasts looks very scary. All MJO models forecast dry phase of MJO till first week of July.<br /><br />And it looks damm bleak even for monsoon bounty states such as Maharashtra, Karnataka and Kerala They will also get below normal rainfall in june. And May be deficient too.<br /><br />So lets all wait till Super July where bountiful monsoon rains are expected.<br /><br /><br />And this statement of IMD<br /><br />http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/imd-expects-monsoon-advancing-vigorously-from-june-17/articleshow/14105680.cms<br /><br />of monsoon monsoon after 17 June may be true, but it will be weak monsoon wave.Pradeephttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17355802908759787091noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-79962706961928881802012-06-14T00:16:09.369+05:302012-06-14T00:16:09.369+05:30Hi Rajesh. All elements of a non-linear chaotic sy...Hi Rajesh. All elements of a non-linear chaotic system of weather are there to see. <br /><br />The IOD turned positive from negative two months ago. Most models have to eat their words.<br /><br />The El Nino international models from predicting very probable, now says 50-50 most probably ENSO neutral! Here too, there is a climb down. With a negative PDO and post 2 year La Nina, it maybe too much to expect a strong El Nino, in fact any El Nino at all. It may need another two weeks for a confirmation where ENSO is heading.<br /><br />The clouds are La Nina like - a any big positive<br /><br />So that leaves the MJO as you rightly concluded as the wild card.My knowledge of MJO's impact on monsoon is poor. What I learnt from you is that it moderates the breaks. When does the MJO expected to flip back?<br /><br />Despite the poor start, I still maintain a normal 99-104 LPA forecast. Plan to review in two weeks time.Rajan Alexanderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07496301416048254072noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-79134073774517831852012-06-13T23:33:43.155+05:302012-06-13T23:33:43.155+05:30so the el nino won't be that big a factor then...so the el nino won't be that big a factor then...thanks for the update...fingers crossed for the monsoon to reach mumbai on sundayRonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15946827452706347910noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-91570699383490671192012-06-13T22:28:53.657+05:302012-06-13T22:28:53.657+05:30Seems again Gujarat/Rajisthan are likely to hit ta...Seems again Gujarat/Rajisthan are likely to hit target, dense clouds giving rain to Gujarat - monsoon ahead of time. Last 5 years Gujarat/Rajisthan receiving more/excess rains. Next low over Arabian sea may move north and again bring bountiful rains to Guj/Raj/Mah?<br /><br />What is happening to south interior peninsula? Absolutely no rain. Forcast of rain to interiors and AP is null.<br /><br />Thanksssethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06630570720915417629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-73342294145427060332012-06-13T21:22:19.533+05:302012-06-13T21:22:19.533+05:30Yeah detailed weather report is the only thing i e...Yeah detailed weather report is the only thing i enjoy reading without getting bored ... so rajesh please publish the detailed version :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-41956964339925220812012-06-13T20:40:51.768+05:302012-06-13T20:40:51.768+05:30Please Rajesh sir give detailed explanation.Becaus...Please Rajesh sir give detailed explanation.Because of your detailed explanation I have gained lot of knowledge about meterology.Shitijnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-63245011015569569832012-06-13T18:54:18.219+05:302012-06-13T18:54:18.219+05:30i agree wid ron nd ananth we get to know many thin...i agree wid ron nd ananth we get to know many things about meteroelogy from detailingjunaidnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-63829575053439930542012-06-13T16:01:26.726+05:302012-06-13T16:01:26.726+05:30i agree with ananth..we don't mind it if it is...i agree with ananth..we don't mind it if it is detailed...Ronhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15946827452706347910noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-2618741238561685782012-06-13T14:40:54.887+05:302012-06-13T14:40:54.887+05:30Hi Rajesh,
considering your blog audience is vari...Hi Rajesh, <br />considering your blog audience is varied, i request you to publish concise and detailed version. <br /><br />Thank you<br />Regards, AnanthAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-51994122413204178802012-06-13T14:06:51.711+05:302012-06-13T14:06:51.711+05:30@Rajesh, Eagerly Waiting for your next monsoon wat...@Rajesh, Eagerly Waiting for your next monsoon watch. What is the current state of ENSO and how it will be for the monsoon period? I hope there is no El Nino. <br /><br />After last week's soothing rains, the temperature is back to low forties here in Delhi.RKnoreply@blogger.com