tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post3268277955783278837..comments2024-03-28T22:32:17.248+05:30Comments on Vagaries of the Weather ©: Rajeshhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comBlogger19125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-81830181209992193702017-04-28T10:28:05.227+05:302017-04-28T10:28:05.227+05:30* legacy in creation..* legacy in creation..Rohit Aroskarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17453048539235982867noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-63318516899318046112017-04-28T09:48:42.098+05:302017-04-28T09:48:42.098+05:30Thanks Atulji..MWS is a wonderful legacy created b...Thanks Atulji..MWS is a wonderful legacy created by Rajesh sirRohit Aroskarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17453048539235982867noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-34019564531761425022017-04-27T11:12:36.903+05:302017-04-27T11:12:36.903+05:30Excellent and detailed analysis as always. Thank y...Excellent and detailed analysis as always. Thank you Rajeshbhai and Rohit. A necessary reading every year for all those, who are trying to understand the intricacies of SW Monsoon!Atul P Naikhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16721754616918324487noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-9737789683189928862017-04-27T07:54:51.463+05:302017-04-27T07:54:51.463+05:30Good rain in mysore and KGF area's on Tuesday ...Good rain in mysore and KGF area's on Tuesday evening. <br />In bangalore most area's got drizzle for 1 hour and infact the only place with heavier rain was the cricket ground. Which led to IPL match being cancelled. Cricket grounds and rain, there is some correlation ...hahahhaVijayanandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04706324999400934992noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-793014332668300952017-04-26T11:19:07.898+05:302017-04-26T11:19:07.898+05:30Credit Australian government Bureau of meteorology...Credit Australian government Bureau of meteorology .<br /><br />Latest ENSO Wrap-Up issued 26 April 2017<br /><br />The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.<br /><br />ENSO neutral, but tropical Pacific waters continue to warm<br /><br />The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. However the Bureau's ENSO Outlook is currently at El Niño WATCH, meaning there is around a 50% chance—twice the normal likelihood—of El Niño developing in 2017.<br /><br />Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have warmed since the start of the year. SSTs in the central tropical Pacific are now 0.5 °C warmer than average, still below the +0.8 °C threshold for El Niño levels. Atmospheric indicators of ENSO remain firmly neutral, although the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has returned to negative values over the past fortnight.<br /><br />International climate models suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to continue warming in the coming months, though in recent weeks some models have reduced the expected extent of warming. Five of eight models indicate that sea surface temperatures will exceed El Niño thresholds during the second half of 2017, a reduction of two models since the last Wrap-Up release. It should be noted that models have lower accuracy at this time of year.<br /><br />El Niño is often, but not always, associated with below average winter–spring rainfall over eastern Australia. Of the 27 El Niño events since 1900, 18 resulted in widespread dry conditions for parts of Australia.<br /><br />The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Four out of six climate models suggest a positive IOD is likely during winter. When a positive IOD coincides with El Niño, the typical El Niño dry signal expands, and generally stretches further west over eastern and central Australia.<br /><br />Next update expected on 9 May 2017<br />NilaY Wankawalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01044520060781153252noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-63485852639612938202017-04-26T10:23:56.791+05:302017-04-26T10:23:56.791+05:30Hello sir,
I will be visiting patan(North Gujarat)...Hello sir,<br />I will be visiting patan(North Gujarat) between 2 may - 6 may. How would be the weather there during that time. At present temperatures are below normal.Vinod Desaihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14437335217298178735noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-38940247003313689952017-04-25T09:36:04.637+05:302017-04-25T09:36:04.637+05:30Thanks AbhijitThanks AbhijitRohit Aroskarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17453048539235982867noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-73824354404609458382017-04-24T22:35:54.632+05:302017-04-24T22:35:54.632+05:30Great MW-2 presentation as usual from Rajesh Sir.....Great MW-2 presentation as usual from Rajesh Sir.. And amazing detailed contribution from Rohit. <br /><br />Current WD has disturbed the heat low. Abhijit Modakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08373516043657476859noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-15171831384687161742017-04-24T15:58:54.346+05:302017-04-24T15:58:54.346+05:30Great analysis Rajesh Sir.
It would be nice if y...Great analysis Rajesh Sir. <br /><br />It would be nice if you can put some kind of comparison graph between Vagraies prediction V/s actual arrival dates(for last 5-6 years) of monsoon in MW-3.<br /><br />And similarly for MW-4, comparison of prediction V/s actual of overall rainsDattarajhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13739654244013674728noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-89809467067738480342017-04-24T12:38:45.319+05:302017-04-24T12:38:45.319+05:30Thanks GSB sir Thanks GSB sir Rohit Aroskarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17453048539235982867noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-12321671177730538022017-04-24T09:55:56.139+05:302017-04-24T09:55:56.139+05:30Great refresher as usual from Rajesh Sir.
Was on ...Great refresher as usual from Rajesh Sir. <br />Was on a quick official visit to Mumbai Fri/Sat. Got some time to enjoy the feeble sea breeze late evening on Marine Drive. Seems the peak dry heat has abated. But humidity levels are below par for the month I suppose. emkayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10678383518576804084noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-90021318602089982912017-04-24T09:02:15.342+05:302017-04-24T09:02:15.342+05:30Great detailed analysisGreat detailed analysisVijayanandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04706324999400934992noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-70794947462199956742017-04-23T22:46:40.712+05:302017-04-23T22:46:40.712+05:30Thanks...
Arjun: Wait for MW-3Thanks...<br /><br />Arjun: Wait for MW-3Rajeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-31018211946900119962017-04-23T20:11:05.638+05:302017-04-23T20:11:05.638+05:30Rajesh sir, can you predict the time of the onset ...Rajesh sir, can you predict the time of the onset of monsoon over the west coast. Will it be early this year or late as usual?Cumulus arjunhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11068570159021555200noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-1594662961975589532017-04-23T09:45:55.804+05:302017-04-23T09:45:55.804+05:30Thanks to Rajesh sir for great Monsoon Watch serie...Thanks to Rajesh sir for great Monsoon Watch series -> evergreen information....<br /><br />Very interesting article....<br />Finally Karnataka wakes up. Reliability of IMD mathematical models are in question? KAR is looking for its own models..<br /><br />In the last 16 years, Karnataka has faced drought for 13 years. But in all these years, national reports, drawn from Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) data, have said that monsoon was either normal or above average. (for example 2016 IMD failed massive southern Indian drought)<br /><br />http://bangaloremirror.indiatimes.com/bangalore/others/Drought-years-Karnataka-looks-to-weather-the-storm-with-its-own-forecast/articleshow/58319910.cmsssethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06630570720915417629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-5085118072099284212017-04-23T09:18:34.205+05:302017-04-23T09:18:34.205+05:30What a painstaking effort to give readers scenario...What a painstaking effort to give readers scenario of earlier years too so that comparison becomes painless for readers. Your work always carry your signature abd by reading one can make out its Rajesh sir write up. Congratulations sir.<br /><br />In MW 2 Factors have turned up better than what they were Under MW1. Let's hope things would turn even better as time unfolds itself. NilaY Wankawalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01044520060781153252noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-29919672608132650322017-04-23T07:29:29.130+05:302017-04-23T07:29:29.130+05:30Good Read Rajesh Sir, looking at some long term mo...Good Read Rajesh Sir, looking at some long term models there appears to be some issue with CEW with some parts of Arabian Sea seeing Easterlies even as late after 20th May though as you rightly say things could drastically change. Srikanthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11106019154470913453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-29331870976404762632017-04-23T02:02:20.610+05:302017-04-23T02:02:20.610+05:30Dear rajesh sir,
El nino is forecasted to strike...Dear rajesh sir,<br /><br /><br />El nino is forecasted to strike again after July - your thoughts on this and effect on the monsoon.<br />Vijith Menonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09230260635872445141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-48825244071403812372017-04-23T00:18:50.164+05:302017-04-23T00:18:50.164+05:30Great analysis as always Rajesh Sir...
Congrats R...Great analysis as always Rajesh Sir...<br /><br />Congrats Rohit for the excellent inputs...we got to see some of them in our WA group....!!!!GSBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13248409324603442514noreply@blogger.com