tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post3215309884023625965..comments2024-03-28T22:32:17.248+05:30Comments on Vagaries of the Weather ©: Rajeshhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-88324162215643858282017-05-12T20:03:48.323+05:302017-05-12T20:03:48.323+05:30Noticed lightening Eastern skies borivali arrd 7 4...Noticed lightening Eastern skies borivali arrd 7 45. Noted 3 of them. Vagaries rocks.NilaY Wankawalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01044520060781153252noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-37166006709434437722017-05-12T18:23:18.749+05:302017-05-12T18:23:18.749+05:30Nice write-up and forecast sir. IMD is saying mons...Nice write-up and forecast sir. IMD is saying monsoon likely to advance in SE of Nicobar sea by 15-May. Fingers crossed.<br /><br />Thanks for considering my request of putting comparison between vagaries forecast v/s actual. Dattarajhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13739654244013674728noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-37827063150120774522017-05-10T22:52:41.805+05:302017-05-10T22:52:41.805+05:30Nilay: We should bear in mind that El Nino or La N...Nilay: We should bear in mind that El Nino or La Nina is one of the parameters in gauging the rain quantum...it is not the ONLY parameter. There are 6/7 others.How will one parameter change the forecast ?Rajeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-77313755082947044502017-05-10T22:33:44.882+05:302017-05-10T22:33:44.882+05:30@ abizer kachwala- I guess it's parameter el n...@ abizer kachwala- I guess it's parameter el nino that has made them changed their statement, the probability of which has been reduced as compared to what it was on April 18 when they issued 1st L R F SWM 2017.NilaY Wankawalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01044520060781153252noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-73313541836087104212017-05-10T22:04:48.685+05:302017-05-10T22:04:48.685+05:30Wow...,but surprised to see IMD changimg statement...Wow...,but surprised to see IMD changimg statements by getting influenced by International weather forecasting agenciesAbizer kachwalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04042135659315600211noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-31282541419399936562017-05-10T11:09:47.812+05:302017-05-10T11:09:47.812+05:30IMD is now predicting 100% of the LPA (long period...IMD is now predicting 100% of the LPA (long period average) of rains this year. Earlier IMD predicted 96% of the LPA.Cumulus arjunhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11068570159021555200noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-30300040728100579632017-05-10T11:04:50.249+05:302017-05-10T11:04:50.249+05:30Now IMD is forecasting that there will be higher r...Now IMD is forecasting that there will be higher rainfall than the previous forecast in April because of easing of El Niño. Good news for Indian farmers. IMD is also predicting above average rainfall.Cumulus arjunhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11068570159021555200noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-46219666792870245822017-05-10T08:59:10.984+05:302017-05-10T08:59:10.984+05:30Credit Econmic Times
India facing higher monsoon ...Credit Econmic Times<br /><br />India facing higher monsoon rains than forecast: Weather office chief<br /><br />By Reuters | Updated: May 09, 2017, 10.22 PM IST<br /><br />NEW DELHI: India looks likely to receive higher monsoon rainfall than previously forecast as concern over the El Nino weather condition has eased, the chief of the weather office said on Tuesday, raising prospects of higher farm and economic growth. <br /><br />The state-run India Meteorological Department on April 18 forecast this year's monsoon rains at 96 percent of the 50-year average of 89 cm. <br /><br />"Things have changed for the good since then," said K.J. Ramesh, director general of the state-run India Meteorological Department, told Reuters in an interview. <br /><br /><br />The monsoon delivers about 70 percent of India's annual rainfall, critical for growing crops such as rice, cane, corn, cotton and soybeans because nearly half of the country's farmland lacks irrigation. <br /><br />"We assessed 96 percent based on theclimatological conditions up to March. Now, conditions are becoming favourable for an improvement over our April 18 estimate," Ramesh said. <br /><br />Australia's Bureau of Meteorology recently said there were signs of concerns easing over El Nino. <br /><br />El Niño, a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific that typically occurs every few years and was linked to crop damage, fires and flash floods, faded in 2016. <br /><br /><br />The establishment phase of the monsoon north of the equator has already started, and the Indian Ocean Dipole phenomenon - which counters the impact of an El Nino - will have an incremental positive effect on the Indian monsoon, Ramesh said. <br /><br />Pre-monsoon showers have already hit certain dry areas in the southern part of the country, he said, bringing much needed relief to farmers ahead of the start of the four-month monsoon season beginning June. <br /><br />India defines average, or normal, rainfall as between 96 percent and 104 percent of the 50-year average. <br /><br />NEW PREDICTION MODEL <br />Jettisoning a statistical method introduced under British colonial rule in the 1920s, theIndia Meteorology Department has for the first time relied on the so-called dynamic model to improve the accuracy of one of the world's most vital weather forecasts. <br /><br />The new system, based on a U.S. model tweaked for India, requires large computing power to generate three-dimensional models to help predict how the monsoon is likely to develop. <br /><br />Experts say better forecasting could help India raise its farm output by nearly 15 percent, by helping farmers tweak the best time to sow, irrigate or apply fertiliser and if rains fail, plan state-wide measures. <br /><br />This would be a major boon for a country already either the world's biggest or second-biggest producer and consumer of rice, wheat, sugar and cotton. <br /><br />Higher farm output will raise the income of some 600 million people, who depend on farming for their livelihood, and boost demand for an array of goods and services.<br />NilaY Wankawalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01044520060781153252noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-41996719113100129362017-05-10T08:22:33.024+05:302017-05-10T08:22:33.024+05:30So, this year, Monsoon will reach Mumbai on 12-14 ...So, this year, Monsoon will reach Mumbai on 12-14 June.Cumulus arjunhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11068570159021555200noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-89470039952835102662017-05-10T07:55:42.006+05:302017-05-10T07:55:42.006+05:30Great detailed info sir
What's EL Nino affect ...Great detailed info sir<br />What's EL Nino affect as now models say it may decline?Vijith Menonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09230260635872445141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-51296989505696206692017-05-10T06:51:55.419+05:302017-05-10T06:51:55.419+05:30As always great sir. It's indeed a commendable...As always great sir. It's indeed a commendable job to provide estimated dates of arrival at this juncture based on parameters prevailing as of now. Rajesh sir has been doing since years.NilaY Wankawalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01044520060781153252noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-84219269186282664962017-05-10T06:06:31.072+05:302017-05-10T06:06:31.072+05:30Sir if you remember during your first two Monsoon ...Sir if you remember during your first two Monsoon Posts I was mentioning about the possibility of a slow onset. There could be a possibility of a Arabian Sea disturbance under the influence of MJO around 3rd / 4th week of May which could possibly play spoilsport as well in my opinion. What is your take on the possibility of an Arabian Sea disturbance evolving under MJO & monsoon surge SirSrikanthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05187934773147266718noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-42202177091331373932017-05-10T00:36:56.421+05:302017-05-10T00:36:56.421+05:30Brilliant Brilliant Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04656513528070258821noreply@blogger.com