tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post1047586375665290837..comments2024-03-28T14:59:35.045+05:30Comments on Vagaries of the Weather ©: Rajeshhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-88583558177464505172017-08-11T11:09:52.716+05:302017-08-11T11:09:52.716+05:30Cherrapunji recorded 295.6 mm rainfall today and c...Cherrapunji recorded 295.6 mm rainfall today and crossed 5000 mm seasonal rainfall mark.<br /><br />Seasonal rainfall: 5208 mm (Till today)<br />Annual rainfall: 8740 mm (Till today)Maharashtra Weatherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07759502377669511984noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-30334339398922302662017-08-10T20:56:11.446+05:302017-08-10T20:56:11.446+05:30Tamilnadu was -21% deficit on 31 July to +10% abov...Tamilnadu was -21% deficit on 31 July to +10% above normal on 10th Aug.. So 31% gain in 10 days of break SWM !! <br /><br />And SI Kar not benefiting from break SWM TS also as -33% deficit as till today.. Now whom @ sset would blame ? whether TN as SI Kar share is grabbed by TN as per his theory by saying Guj/Raj lows making SI Kar deficit ! So in break SWM TN gaining but SI Kar not so now who is stopping SI Kar. Abhijit Modakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08373516043657476859noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-57498546833809637212017-08-10T16:42:56.188+05:302017-08-10T16:42:56.188+05:30Good news Bangalore crosses 100mm since june! With...Good news Bangalore crosses 100mm since june! With great difficulty- sept supposed to be rainiest month hope it rains before monsoon ends.ssethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06630570720915417629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-12996825513228495332017-08-10T12:53:04.515+05:302017-08-10T12:53:04.515+05:30Rohit Sir any updates for weekend forecaste for m ...Rohit Sir any updates for weekend forecaste for m mbaiDeepakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05068222482163376844noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-40422506582058772382017-08-10T00:12:34.523+05:302017-08-10T00:12:34.523+05:30Rajesh Sir weekend forecaste for Mumbai Rajesh Sir weekend forecaste for Mumbai Deepakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05068222482163376844noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-51949673837758459742017-08-09T19:53:16.235+05:302017-08-09T19:53:16.235+05:30Many companies have started flood relief fund for ...Many companies have started flood relief fund for GUJ and RAJ.<br />Same needs to be started for south India - drought relief fund!<br />KEA blog says weak NEM - another disaster for south India...ssethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06630570720915417629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-52341363338696303142017-08-09T19:53:06.077+05:302017-08-09T19:53:06.077+05:30Shivkumar mogal quick update on rainfall figures Shivkumar mogal quick update on rainfall figures NilaY Wankawalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01044520060781153252noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-38558055994103632572017-08-09T17:08:01.306+05:302017-08-09T17:08:01.306+05:30East Vidarbha rainfall Yesterday and Today.
Rainf...East Vidarbha rainfall Yesterday and Today.<br /><br />Rainfall on 8 Aug (Above 100 mm)<br /><br />Malewada (Nagpur) 180 mm<br />Bhiwapur (Nagpur) 177 mm<br />Kondha (Bhandara) 168 mm<br />Aasgaon (Bhandara) 163 mm<br />Kargaon (Nagpur) 148 mm<br />Pachkhedli (Nagpur) 131 mm<br />Shankarpur (Chandrapur) 116 mm<br />Pavani (Bhandara) 112 mm<br />Masal (Bhandara) 109 mm<br />Nimkheda (Nagpur) 101 mm<br />Mauda (Nagpur) 101 mm<br /><br />Rainfall on 9 Aug (Above 150 mm)<br /><br />Bedgaon (Gadchiroli) 211 mm<br />Palandur (Bhandara) 211 mm<br />Masal (Bhandara) 195 mm<br />Barwha (Bhandara) 195 mm<br />Pachkhedli (Nagpur) 178 mm<br />Adyal (Bhandara) 167 mm<br />Mandhal (Nagpur) 160 mm<br />Korchi (Gadchiroli) 160 mm<br />Kondha (Bhandara) 159 mm<br />Arjuni Morgaon (Gondia) 157 mm<br />Kotgul (Gadchiroli) 152 mmMaharashtra Weatherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07759502377669511984noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-7816087309429444522017-08-08T15:23:34.103+05:302017-08-08T15:23:34.103+05:30SOURCED FROM IMD WEBSITE
PRESS RELEASE
New Delhi,...SOURCED FROM IMD WEBSITE<br /><br />PRESS RELEASE<br />New Delhi, 08th August, 2017<br />Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES)<br />Earth System Science Organization (ESSO)<br />India Meteorological Department<br /><br />Long Range Forecast for the Rainfall during Second Half (August –<br />September) of the 2017 Southwest Monsoon and Updates for the<br />Seasonal Forecasts<br /><br />Highlights:<br /><br /> Quantitatively, the rainfall over the country as a whole during the second half of<br />the season is likely to be 100% of LPA with a model error of ±8%.<br /><br /> The rainfall during August is likely to be 99 ± 9% of LPA as was forecasted in June.<br /><br /> The seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be<br />normal (96% to 104% of LPA) as was forecasted in June.<br /><br />1. Background and details of the 5- Parameter Operational Model<br /><br />The forecast for the rainfall over the country as a whole for the second half of the 2017<br />monsoon season has been prepared using a Principal Component Regression (PCR) Model and<br />Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS). The PCR model is based on 5 predictors<br />with a model error of ±8% of long period average (LPA). The LPA of the rainfall over the country as a whole for the second half of the monsoon season (August to September) based on the 1951-2000 period is 43.5cm (49% of the average season rainfall) with a coefficient of variation (C.V) of 15%.<br /><br />2. SST conditions in the Pacific and the Indian Oceans<br /><br />Since mid-March, warm ENSO neutral conditions are prevailing with SSTs over east-central<br />tropical Pacific close to El Niño threshold in recent weeks. However, the atmospheric conditions over the Pacific continue to reflect neutral ENSO conditions. Latest forecast from MMCFS indicates neutral ENSO conditions are most likely till 2018 spring season with high probability (80-90%) till end of 2017. Most of the other global models also suggest neutral ENSO conditions during the remaining part of 2017. Over Indian Ocean, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing. The MMCFS forecast indicates nearly equal probabilities for neutral and negative IOD conditions to continue during the remaining part of the monsoon season.<br /><br />3. Forecast for the Rainfall during the Second Half of the 2017 Southwest Monsoon<br />Rainfall and Updates for the Seasonal Forecasts<br /><br />(a) The rainfall over the country as a whole during second half of southwest monsoon season<br />(August to September) is most likely to be normal (94%-106% of LPA).<br /><br />(b) Quantitatively, the rainfall for the country as a whole during the second half of the season is likely<br />to be 100% of LPA with a model error of ±8%.<br /><br />(c) The rainfall during August is likely to be 99 ± 9% of LPA.<br /><br />(d) The seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be normal (96%- 104% of LPA) as predicted in June.<br /><br />NilaY Wankawalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01044520060781153252noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-34036987247091688882017-08-07T17:30:46.719+05:302017-08-07T17:30:46.719+05:30Defecit= Deficit- regret the spell errorDefecit= Deficit- regret the spell errorNilaY Wankawalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01044520060781153252noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-46464358043848533642017-08-07T12:56:34.195+05:302017-08-07T12:56:34.195+05:30Heavy rain in Faridabad of NCR.But
AS of now no r...Heavy rain in Faridabad of NCR.But <br />AS of now no raining in Delhi Rawathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10912449083844686623noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-2242763036566033072017-08-07T12:31:55.748+05:302017-08-07T12:31:55.748+05:30Mumbai city put under defecient category recording...Mumbai city put under defecient category recording 21% defecit from 01.06.2017 to 06.08.2017.<br /><br />Kolhapur Sangli Dhule Jalgaon Aurangabad Jalna Parbhani Hingoli Latur Nanded Akola Amravati Yavatmal Nagpur Bhandara Gondiya Chandrapur all with Red Dots categorised in defecient category having defecit > 20% till 06.08.2017. Parbhani being Highest amongst listed -45%.<br /><br />Above listing for Maharashtra state Only<br /><br />Source Hydromet Division IMD- <br /><br />NilaY Wankawalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01044520060781153252noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-12639563359108322032017-08-06T21:05:55.582+05:302017-08-06T21:05:55.582+05:30Hope Rajesh sir will make a comeback soon.... And ...Hope Rajesh sir will make a comeback soon.... And predict the 2nd part of swm-2017Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00224077311647775592noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-51054359826925110282017-08-06T19:40:36.526+05:302017-08-06T19:40:36.526+05:30Thanks Rohitji for region-wise toppers. We see ma...Thanks Rohitji for region-wise toppers. We see many new places in toppers list overtaking classic places. Hope this does not happen next year - for instance we see Mt.Abu same as Augumbe, Augumbe no longer in top slots - same goes with Kerala.<br />Hope Rajesh Sir is in good phase - probably doing deep research - leaving weather domains to new scientists like you and vagaries core group.ssethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06630570720915417629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-88523907515263281442017-08-06T13:30:45.796+05:302017-08-06T13:30:45.796+05:30Great work Rohit. Monsoon in Mumbai city has enter...Great work Rohit. Monsoon in Mumbai city has entered defecient region. SWM 2017 for mumbai is missing Rajesh sir's script this time. NilaY Wankawalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01044520060781153252noreply@blogger.com