tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post1025275326621417466..comments2024-03-28T22:32:17.248+05:30Comments on Vagaries of the Weather ©: Rajeshhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-82159989547272617002011-07-15T22:56:16.724+05:302011-07-15T22:56:16.724+05:30Will it reach souther sindh or give some rains her...Will it reach souther sindh or give some rains hereAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-79245252284937889862011-07-15T22:06:35.407+05:302011-07-15T22:06:35.407+05:30Kaneyen, thanks for the details and explanation to...Kaneyen, thanks for the details and explanation to NT. <br />BB3 has been without clouds, with minimum clouding initially in the western quadrant.<br />Today, with BB3 over M.P. it is suddenly enveloped with clouding.Rajeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-13155545994897767372011-07-15T21:13:08.388+05:302011-07-15T21:13:08.388+05:30I feel sat & sun will be heavier than what Raj...I feel sat & sun will be heavier than what Rajeshbhai is expecting !!...........poteyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-11871337568388937702011-07-15T21:02:29.182+05:302011-07-15T21:02:29.182+05:30Rajesh, couple of things that I find a bit strange...Rajesh, couple of things that I find a bit strange about the current rains, as rightly pointed out by Ananth, the states of Orrisa and Chhatisgarh were very dry, infact one could hardly see any cloud cover, you also mentioned in your blog that the LOW is devoid of any cloud cover around it, that is ......BY NT<br />-------------------------------------<br />Dear NT,<br />During SWM periods especially in India two wind branches will be dominant. One is Arabian SEa Branch and the other is Bay of Bengal branch. Climatologically speaking SWM will be active along 14-15 degree parallels. During this SWM 2011 Arabian Sea branch is relatively active and sometime vigorous than Bay branch. Even though there is no periodicity of Arabian Sea activeness, there are several historical evidences where Bay branch is weak. This may be inferred from the heavy rainfall distribution. <br />No cloud cover will be seen around the eye of the LOW. Usually during SWM period the formation of LOW in BOB will enhance rainfall in West Bengal, Odissa, MP, UP and interior land when the low is moving along the monsoon trough. The traditional monsoon trough from Ganga Nagar to Head Bay is NOT pronounced. During this SWM2011 period this trough is bleak and most of the time the orientation is distorted and confined to North to South direction in SLP CHARTS. However the Mid Tropical Circulation [MTC] and UACs are prominent.Kaneyenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06817360454417026229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-39636762489978204682011-07-15T14:13:08.593+05:302011-07-15T14:13:08.593+05:30Its been a productive week for Mumbai lakes, just ...Its been a productive week for Mumbai lakes, just checked mumbai lakes almost Appx 45 % of full capacity( 5 months of water i guess). A bright spot in waht was otherwise a tragic week for mumbaikars<br />Pune situation not so rosy, just 30percent full <br /><br />AnanthAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-30392137097419950282011-07-15T14:12:44.452+05:302011-07-15T14:12:44.452+05:30Thanks for the clarifications, Rajesh, get your po...Thanks for the clarifications, Rajesh, get your point. Had some incorrect beliefs, they are clarified now.NTnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-84374985614560378942011-07-15T11:20:56.199+05:302011-07-15T11:20:56.199+05:30Rajesh i wanted to ask can this low be able to mak...Rajesh i wanted to ask can this low be able to make its way towards sindh coast or it will fizzle out just in between like previous ones ???Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-28363571623545574352011-07-15T11:09:56.609+05:302011-07-15T11:09:56.609+05:30nt: Firstly the off shore trough matter.Things wil...nt: Firstly the off shore trough matter.Things will be easier for me to explain if you would plz go thru the Saturday blog. Have mentioned the off shore trough weakening, and the 3 things required to get rainfall again.Was expecting trough to pick up on Sunday, but was late, and the picture was "not rosy" as mentioned by me, and for whch you acknowledged.In fact on Sunday, vagaries mentioned of a ridge in the northern part of the trough.<br />Have also explained on Tuesday, that there will be heavy rainfall in Konkan due to an UAC embedded in the off shore trough. Thus the extreme rains.<br />Abs normal for low to form off .P. coast, and better in fact.<br />Most of the clouding rushing from the Arabian Sea to BB3 has been grabbed by the Vortex en-route over Marathwada. See Monday/Tuesday blog.<br />Feel free to ask, will answer to the best of my ability.Always most of the explanations are given when i put up mu forecast.Rajeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-83373296205941558502011-07-15T10:29:23.838+05:302011-07-15T10:29:23.838+05:30Rajesh, couple of things that I find a bit strange...Rajesh, couple of things that I find a bit strange about the current rains, as rightly pointed out by Ananth, the states of Orrisa and Chhatisgarh were very dry, infact one could hardly see any cloud cover, you also mentioned in your blog that the LOW is devoid of any cloud cover around it, that is really strange. Also, I noticed that BB2 and BB3 both formed around central BOB - North Andra / South Orrisa coasts, typically this happens in either forming or retreating Monsoons, in peak Monsoon period like mid-July, one would expect LOWs / Depressions to form around N - Orrisa / WB coasts, may be this is due to the fact that the Monsoon trough was South of it's normal position. The third thing that is the rains in Mumbai last couple of days, is this kind of rainfall just due to trough activation normal? In any case I thought the Offshore was activated last week itself, there were very heavy rains till Saturday and they resumed since Monday night (SCZ recieved 3 inch rain Monday night of this week), so never really thought the trough was de-activated. What's your take on the above?NTnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-20187652539571636032011-07-15T00:04:57.430+05:302011-07-15T00:04:57.430+05:30svt.according to me, which i have put up in vagari...svt.according to me, which i have put up in vagaries, this rainfall was due to off shore trough activation. Never due to BB3. Have explained it almost daily, step by step on blog.<br />As per AWS, Dadar got 60 mms during the day today. My rain guage at warden road measured 58 mms.Rajeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-23402115064807165212011-07-14T23:55:09.509+05:302011-07-14T23:55:09.509+05:30I will be surprise if dadar didn't got more th...I will be surprise if dadar didn't got more than 100 ml of rains from 6:00 am in the morning to 11:00 pm in the night. Two particularly heavy downpour happend 1) between 10 am to 1 pm 2) between 8:30 pm to 11:00 pm. Hard to believe that just feeble low brought this kind of rains in north konkan. Anyway few forecast models indicating heavy rains might return to mumbai by next tuesday/wednesday. But its too early to predict exact volume of rains.svtnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-17816972611376265872011-07-14T23:29:20.729+05:302011-07-14T23:29:20.729+05:30is it not weird that orissa and chatisgarh has bee...is it not weird that orissa and chatisgarh has been relatively dry last two days, the place of actual low pressue ?<br /><br />AnanthAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com