Reader's Page

1st June 2017:
Superb click by Vagarian Santosh Subramanian from Kolkata...clicked during the Storm


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8th August 2016: Kitwade (Mah) is King this year...it seems today
Pics taken near(Ghatkarwadi Village) "Kitwade" towards Gavse and Ajara of Kolhapur District ,South Konkan,Maharashtra....by Vagarian Naveen Reddy

We can see Hiranyakeshi river in the pics which is a left-bank tributary of the "Ghataprabha River" !!






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Tuesday 28th June 2016..Karachi sent by Vagarian Tyronne..




and Porbundar sent by Vagarian Gaurav....




Hailstorm in Nagpur..15th March 2015:










Hailstorm Udaipur...14th March 2015







Rains in Oman and Dubai on Monday 19th Jan 2015...

Dubai Hails...

 These pics courtesy thru Vishal Kelkar



Muscat...14 mms


Oman


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Heavy Rains Brings Bangalore City to stand still . B'lore city has received 132 mm of rains in last 24 hours ....Santosh Sends these Pics...



.Sunset on 28th October 2014...
Goa ( Atul)

Karwar ( Potey)

Pune (Pawan)


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as the skies clear...Rare September 13th fog in Punjab...Sent and clicked by Arpit



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Pics of Flooding in Baroda sent by Gaurav Raninga on 10th September:






Pics sent by Hunaid from Udaipur..heavy rains on 9th September








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3rd September...Pics taken by Usman and sent by Vagarian Waqas from Gujrat , Pakistan...Super Shelf formation clouds ....






2nd August 2014..Sent by Hunaid from Udaipur

Clicked  From Monsoon Palace, Udaipur. Why it is called Monsoon Palace is Obvious. In earlier times King of Udaipur used to go up there to spend time during Monsoons. Now its a famous tourist spot, open for all free of charge


1st August 2014:

Gaurav Raninga writes..Quote "
According to local news channel junagadh and gir somnath district received rainfall upto 300mms till now since early morning.....junagadh 170mm.....flash flood warning issued by othority for many villages surrounding junagadh.....school colleges closed.."
 Junagad Heavy Rains Pic sent by Bhargav Agravat:


1st Aug 2014.... Pic from Gujarat City,
Punjab Pakistan sent from .M.Waqas


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Table of Kolkata Heatwave prepared by Vagarian Santosh from Kolkata....22nd May 2014
The Summary of the
‪#‎Heatwave‬ That ruled and Burnt ‪#‎Kolkata‬
"In Last 10 Days "
The Hottest Summer Of the "DECADE" for Kolkata



Pics of Kerala Floods on 8th May 2014 sent by Santosh




Pic sent by Pavan Gudee from Pune of Monday 21st rains in Pune...






Unique Pic from Junagadh sent and taken on Sunday 20th April 2014  by Gaurav Raninga 


Pic sent by Abhijit from Badlapur...Sunday 20th April


Pics of Thursday 17th Thunder showers from Raipur sent by vagarian Prateek...








True to vagaries' forecast, Parts of Kolkata received thunder showers on Sunday 23rd march 2014 evening...Vagarian Santosh has managed to take a superb Pic of a bolt ...risky, but too good !



Visit to Mahableshwar in Pics ( 10th March 2014 - 13th March 2014)..visited the Met Office there. Inter acted with the Scientists there from Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (Pune).
                                                  When I visited the Mahableshwar Met Observatory, i interacted with the scientists from IITM. They are stationed there and studying and working in the " High Altitude Cloud Physics Lab" set up there. The studies of cloud formation and cloud particles which the moisture clings on to like aerosol etc and the actual cloud formations and clouds rushing in from the Sea and their impurity contents and pureness are studied and analysed. Learnt a lot from them... Tejas Baxi
..Mshwar is at 850 hp level..










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Raining in Muscat on Sunday, 16th March 2014...see pics from there..

                                                                          
And snow in Ibri, Oman


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Mumbai Lake levels from Jayeshbhai         
             24th Feb 2014           24th Feb 2013
Modak Sagar5321
Tansa7988
Vihar1413
Tulsi55
Upper Vaitarna310240
Bhatsa608575
Middle Vaitarna00
1069
942


RK Chaudhary sends these pics of Tuesday ,21st Jan rain from Noida






Badlapur Overall Weather for year 2013 from Abhijit Modak's Private Observation.... 

January:  Temp Max & Min (Avg): 29.4°C/12.5°C 
 Lowest min temp was: 9.3c on 6 Jan 2013  

February:  Temp Max & Min (Avg): 31.6°C/15.9°C   
  Lowest min temp was: 12.6c on 18 Feb 2013  

March: Temp Max & Min (Avg): 35.1°C/18.7°C    
 Highest max temp was 38.8c on 8 Mar 2013  
 Lowest min temp was 15c on 5 Mar 2013   

April: Temp Max & Min (Avg): 36.0°C/21.6°C    
Highest max temp was 40.3c on 27 Apr 2013  
 Lowest min temp was 18.7c on 9 Apr 2013  
 Rainfall:  Trace on 20 Apr 
   
May: Temp Max & Min (Avg): 35.3°C/25.3°C     
 Highest max temp was 39.1c on 1 May 2013  
 Rainfall: Trace on 28 May 2013 & 15mm on 29 May 2013  
 Rainy Day: 1     
Rainfall from Jan to May: 15mms 

June: 
Temp Max & Min (Avg): 30.2°C/23.8°C 
Rainfall: 1300 mms 
Rainy Days (minimum 3mms/day): 25 days  
Highest rainfall in 24hrs period: 262.0mm on 17 June 2013   

July: 
Temp Max & Min (Avg): 27.5°C/22.9°C 
Rainfall: 1703 mms 
Rainy Days (minimum 3mms/day): 30 days 
Highest rainfall in 24hrs period: 222.0mm on 12 July 2013   

August: 
Temp Max & Min (Avg): 28.7°C/23.1°C 
Rainfall: 697 mms 
Rainy Days (minimum 3mms/day): 29 days 
Highest rainfall in 24hrs period: 88.0mm on 02 Aug 2013   

September: Temp Max & Min (Avg): 30.6°C/23.4°C 
Rainfall: 605 mms 
Rainy Days (minimum 3mms/day): 20 days 
Highest rainfall in 24hrs period: 174.0mm on 16 Sept 2013    
Rainfall from June to Sept (SWM): 4305 mms   

October: Temp Max & Min (Avg): 32.4°C/23.5°C 
Highest max temp was 34.5c on 19 Oct 2013  
Rainfall: 110 mms 
Rainy Days (minimum 3mms/day): 5 days 
Highest rainfall in 24hrs period: 50.0mm on 06 Oct 2013   

November: Temp Max & Min (Avg): 32.7°C/19.5°C 
Highest max temp: 34.6°C on 04 Nov 
Lowest min temp: 14.7°C on 17 Nov 
Rainfall: 48 mms 
Rainy Days (minimum 3mms/day): 2 days 
Highest rainfall in 24hrs period: 46.0mm on 27 Nov 2013   

December: Temp Max & Min (Avg): 30.4°C/16.1°C 
Highest max temp: 33.5°C on 01 Dec 
Lowest min temp: 12.5°C on 15 & 17 Dec 
Rainfall: 0.4 mms  
Rainfall from Oct to Dec: 158.4 mms  

Annual Temp for 2013 Max & Min (Avg): 31.7°C/20.5°C  

Annual Rainfall for year 2013: 4478.4mms


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Collection of Snaps from Muscat during heavy rains on 21st Night (2013):
Qumaira received torrential rains, measuring 130 mms, while Khasab AP got 54 mms, Sunaynah 48 mms, Sohar 44 mms and Muscat AP 25 mms.Muscat normal for November is 2 mms.










Posted 0n 18th November 2013

Life Cycle of BB-18..compiled by Santosh Subramanian;

See Video Here

and Video of Thphoon Haiyan by Santosh here

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Vagaries' Meeting at Panvel on 28th September 2013....




Another set from Kolkata taken by Santosh Subramanian...21st september 2013







What a lovely take by Santosh Subramanian at Kolkata...storm of 9th September 2013....Congratulations !



Heavy Rains in Kandivali on Saturday..as seen from Mahalaxmi..Big Cb cloud precipitataes. And Sunset pic on Saturday



MOODS OF SKY IN PUNE @ 17:15 17th August...Sent by Pavan





Kochi Airport..pics sent by Santosh Subraminian;



Super Pic of Kolkata Sunset by Santosh Subramanian




Where is this Place ? Any guesses ?


Mumbai region - Top 11 rain stations(rain in cms) as on June 30th.. .. (all 11 century makers)..from Rohit Aroskar

Mumbai Tulshi 187 
Badlapur 138..(source : Abhijit)
Ulhasnagar 121 
Thane 119 
Mumbai Vihar 117 
Karjat 117 
Panvel 115 
Khalapur 113 
Kalyan 109 
Ambarnath 103 
Mumbai SCZ 103



Mumbai Details as on June 30th .by Rohit Aroskar




Pics from Vagaries' Meet on 30th June 2013



The results of the Tutorials:Sorry, assessment  took some (of my) time..
I appreciate the efforts taken by all of you. I have tried my best to impart the finer details and complications of our Monsoon, without going into the finer details.
Most of you have done better than expected, and I am sure have gained and learnt more through these tutorials.
Have tried to be straight forward and point blank in my corrections..the results and markings turned out to be very close.
Results;

1. Rafeek: 67%                        1st Congratulations !
2. Rohit: 64%                           2nd Congratulations !
3. Atul (Goa): 55%
4. Avtansh: 50%
5. Mohan( Panvel): 49%
6. Neeraj (Kathmandu): 47%
7. Santosh S (Kolkata): 45%
8. Puneet :  42%

9. A.Joshi:  40%

Posted on June 3rd 2013:


GFS Forecast map from Jim (Accuweather) on Inter Active Page..


Computer-derived forecast (GFS) of total precipitation from Monday, June 3, to Sunday, June 9, 2013. Highest rainfall of 6-10 inches (about 15-25 cm), shown in magenta to near black, with nearly as much forecast near the coast of Karnataka state, South western India. In contrast, dry weather is forecast to persist ahead of the South West Monsoon in North western India and much of Pakistan.

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Winter News From Arpit:

Lake frozen in NCR Region last winter...see here...



Muscat Rains on Monday, 29th April 2013.....








From Left, Ron, Mohan, Rajesh, Puneet, Rohit, Abhijit, Salil and Gurvinder

Posted on 11 55 am IST Monday:

Karachi rains pics for Muhammad Zohair:




Posted on 7th April  2013:
Heavy rains in Oman and Light rains in Muscat.Storm in Dubai overnight.
Pics from North Oman ....







Posted on 30th March:



Coil-like shapes in clouds, created by their passage over the Prince Edward Islands in the south Indian Ocean. Credit: NASA/Terra/MODIS.
These are some of the strangest looking clouds I’ve seen from Earth-observing satellites.
These coil-like or bow-wave-shaped clouds were created by the clouds passing over the Prince Edward Islands, in the south Indian Ocean. It was taken by the Terra satellite with the MODIS instrument (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) on March 26, 2013.



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Superb Pics of Wednesday's (14th March) Thunderstorm at Nagpur Taken By Akshay Deoras...Thanks








Pics of Thursday 7th March Morning from Dubai...sent by Jignesh 



Vagaries' comments: alto Cumulus, but more flattish indicating stabilizing atmosphere...





Muscat on Tuesday:




And New Delhi on Monday as seen thru Rajiv's Camera..




3rd Feb.. Sunday Morning Weather Events ..from Muscat









and Ghaziabad From Arpit




Thick Fog ..Delhi NCR on 31st Jan..pics by Rajiv and RK..





Oymyakon, Siberia:



Overcast Oman Today...Pic received from Nikhil ...Thanks




Arpit wanted to know as to why the upper Punjab regions were not showing low temperatures at night.

Though not an expert in this, i have tried to reason out the meteorological facts and have presented my views. These may not be endorsed and different opinions could prevail;

Most regions in the plains from North Rajasthan Eastwards into Delhi and West UP have experienced below normal near freezing temperatures last 5 nights.


The reason, naturally is thick fog in the day and retention of constant temperatures. Now, as we saw the fog clearing by afternoon, the loss of heat in the evening hours by radiation was more. Even though fog returned after night hours, we see from the earlier fog images, that the intensity of early evening fog from the last 3 days in Delhi NCR was marginally less, and in Rajasthan, it was much less.
This also happens as the upper winds vorticity is stronger around the Punjab region. See image.



But in Punjab shows thicker fog formation and would not allow the heat to radiate out into space. Thus though day temperatures were low, the constant temperatures, though low of around 8/9c, were trapped in the regions like Punjab and plains of Jammu.


Certain patches in NCR and west UP actually "lost" fog around late evening, and would not thicken till past mid night. This allowed substantial loss of the trapped heat into space, and calm conditions allowed cooler air to replace, as well as fog to form equally fast.



An overall Outgoing Longwave Radiation Image shows the regions around Delhi and West UP, between 30N and 33N more receptive to the conditions than the region above 35N, that is North of Punjab. This image is not enlarged, so outlined regions are vague and have to be imagined.

Calculating these parameters,  i had predicted a rise of 2c in the regions shown in yesterday's vagaries map, (dark blue region) from Saturday, and a relative drop of 2c in the (light blue regions) from Friday.




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Pics of Rain Clouds over Dubai as of Sunday, 16th December  Evening 7.10pm..sent by Priya.






More pics from Muscat and Dubai of Friday rains..



Heavy Dubai rains on Friday..pics sent by Priya from there...she mentions of rain with thunder/lightning..




Dubai Pics recieved today, Thursday 29th November...



Dubai on Wednesday, 21st November..Thanks Jignesh




Picture from Dubai as on Tuesday, 20th afternoon....sent by Jignesh



Alto-cumulus outlined in a deep blue sky, portending rain.

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Pics from Dubai sent on Thursday, 8th Nov. Morning by Priya....





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From Pradeep:
Recent Wind Speed of various Cyclones in CHENNAI - Data from Kea metsite - only cyclones is considered
-----------------
Cyclone Jal 47 km/hr (7/11/2010)
Cyclone Thane 43 km/hr (30/12/2011)
Cyclone Laila 42 km/hr (19/5/2010)
Cyclone Nisha 42 km/hr (26/11/2008)
Depression BOB 08 40 km/hr (28/10/2007)
Depression BOB 07 45 km/hr (27/09/2007)
Cyclone Ogni 50 km/hr (28/10/2006)

Other cyclones in last 20 years when chennai witnessed 100 km/hr winds - IMD data
On 6th, December 1996 (Tropical Cyclone 08B) - a Cyclone which crossed Chennai produced 100 km/hr winds

On 31st, October 1994 (Severe Cyclonic Storm BOB 03) - a cyclone which crossed Chennai brought 120-130 km/hr winds
Cyclone Ogni 2006 and Cyclone Nisha 2008 remains as best cyclones for Chennai in last 15 years
———————————-
Cyclone Ogni 2006 – Around 500 mm in 6 days

Cyclone Nisha 2008 – Around 400 mm in 4 days

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Nisha_%282008%29

Rainfall – http://www.kea.metsite.com/2008_11.txt





Fog in Dubai..sent by Jignesh today (Wednesday), 10th October




Beautifull pics of Thunderclouds and Lightning taken by abhijit..near Badlapur..Saturday Evening...





Beautiful Pics of Thunderheads Near Badlapur and Matheran..sent by
FINAL MONSOON REPORT FOR THE YEAR 2012 (JUNE-SEP)...Prepared and Presented for Vagaries by GSB...Great Work , We appreciate it.
                      
                                        
                              
                       TOTAL ALL INDIA MONSOON RAINFALL ========  819.5 mm 
                  ALL INDIA RAINFALL DEFICIT AS ON 30TH SEP ========  8%
                      
                                    ABOVE/BELOW NORMAL DAILY RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION
                MONSOON RANKING (PAST 112 YEARS) ===========      88  (25TH from BOTTOM)
                                                TOP TEN SUBDIVISIONS THIS SEASON
 
  
                                         BOTTOM TEN SUBDIVISIONS THIS SEASON
  
                                TOP TEN SUBDIVISIONS (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)
                           BOTTOM TEN SUBDIVISIONS (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)
                                                  OVERALL SUBDIVISIONAL PERFORMANCE
 
                                                     ZONAL FIGURES
 PROGRESS OF THE MONSOON
ANDAMANS (23rd MAY) , KERALA (5th JUNE), BANGALORE (13th JUNE), MUMBAI (17th JUNE)
KOLKATTA (17th JUNE), DELHI (7th JULY) , ALL INDIA (11th JULY)
 The SW Monsoon has partially withdrawn from India as on the 30th September. It has withdrawn from Rajasthan, Kashmir, HP, Utterakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Gujarat, West MP and Western UP.

The Rainfall and other Monsoon total carry forwards are discontinued by IMD from 1st October. But, we shall try and continue maintaining the Monsoon records in the States where Monsoon is still active..subject to easy availability.

ALL FIGURES OF RAINFALL ARE IN MILLIMETERS.( data from IMD .. Pls point out any errors.)



Snapped at Dadar Mumbai by Salil Kawli...Monday's storm




Lightning snap by abhijit taken on Saturday evening...



Thunderclouds seen in the North-east from South Mumbai on Wednesday evening;



GSB with the Latest rainfall analysis:

THIS WEEK'S ALL INDIA (16/9/2012 to 23/9/2012) RAINFALL ANALYSIS
-----------------------------------
TOTAL ALL INDIA RAINFALL(SEASON+/-)
-----------------------------------
23/9/2012 ----------- 807 MM (-5%)16/9/2012 ----------- 764 MM (-7%)
RAINFALL THIS WEEK --- 43 MM

TO ACHEIVE BY 30TH SEPTEMBER..
-----------------------------------
min 700mm --- ACHEIVED ON 08/9/2012

LIKELY/EXPECTED TOTAL(845mm) -- 5.43mm p/d

CURRENT RAINFALL is 7.02 mm p/d
----------------------------------
TOP FIVE SUBDIVISIONS THIS WEEK..
------------------------------
A & N ISLAND ---------- 187.6 mm
ARUNACHAL PRADESH ----- 171.6 mm
ASSAM & MEGHALAYA ----- 170.2 mm
SHWB & SIKKIM --------- 150.1 mm
BIHAR ----------------- 90.2 mm

BOTTOM FIVE SUBDVISIONS THIS WEEK..
-----------------------------------
N.I KARNATAKA ---------- 5.2 mm
RAYALSEEMA -------------- 4.8 mm
S.I. KARNATAKA ---------- 4.7 mm
WEST RAJASTHAN ---------- 2.9 mm
LAKSHWADEEP ------------- 1.3 mm

Total ABOVE AVG days this week ------ 6

Total ABOVE AVG days
this season -------------- 42 (37%)

Total BELOW AVG days
this season -------------- 73 (63%)

TOP FIVE SUBDIVISIONS THIS SEASON 
-----------------------------------
SO FAR : -
-------
COASTAL KARNATAKA --------- 3073 mm
KONKAN & GOA -------------- 2802 mm
SHWB & SIKKIM ------------- 2052 mm
A & N ISLAND -------------- 1944 mm
ARUNACHAL PR. ------------- 1698 mm

BOTTOM FIVE SUBDIVISIONS THIS
----------------------------------
SEASON SO FAR : -
--------------
SAURASHTRA & KUTCH --------- 302 mm
WEST RAJASTHAN ------------- 296 mm
HAR.CH & DELHI ------------- 283 mm
PUNJAB --------------------- 266 mm
TN & PONDICHERRY ----------- 211 mm

--------------****----------------
Data from IMD. Any errors pls
point this out to me

Thundery Developments in Pune Today (Thursday,20th)..sent by Abhijit




The Usual  Analysis from GSB..great work GSB..

THIS WEEK'S ALL INDIA (09/9/2012 to 16/9/2012) RAINFALL ANALYSIS
-----------------------------------
TOTAL ALL INDIA RAINFALL(SEASON+/-)
-----------------------------------
16/9/2012 ----------- 764 MM (-7%)
09/9/2012 ----------- 708 MM (-9%)
RAINFALL THIS WEEK --- 56 MM

TO ACHEIVE BY 30TH SEPTEMBER..
-----------------------------------
min 700mm --- ACHEIVED ON 08/9/2012

Average 900mm ------ 9.71 mm p/d

CURRENT RAINFALL is 7.07 mm p/d
----------------------------------

TOP FIVE SUBDIVISIONS THIS WEEK..
------------------------------
A & N ISLAND ---------- 350.4 mm
SHWB & SIKKIM --------- 211.7 mm
ARUNACHAL PRADESH ----- 152.5 mm
KONKAN & GOA ---------- 132.5 mm
EAST U.P -------------- 122.6 mm

BOTTOM FIVE SUBDVISIONS THIS WEEK..
-----------------------------------
MARATHWADA ------------- 21.4 mm
S.I.KARNATAKA ---------- 16.9 mm
TN & PONDICHERRY ------- 16.9 mm
N.I KARNATAKA ----------- 8.4 mm
RAYALSEEMA -------------- 2.1 mm

Total ABOVE AVG days this week ------ 7

Total ABOVE AVG days
this season ---------------------- 36 (33%)

Total BELOW AVG days
this season ---------------------- 72 (67%)

TOP FIVE SUBDIVISIONS THIS SEASON SO FAR : -
-----------------------------------
COASTAL KARNATAKA --------- 3048 mm
KONKAN & GOA -------------- 2783 mm
SHWB & SIKKIM ------------- 1902 mm
A & N ISLAND -------------- 1756 mm
ARUNACHAL PR. ------------- 1527 mm

BOTTOM FIVE SUBDIVISIONS THIS SEASON SO FAR : -
-----------------------------------
SAURASHTRA & KUTCH --------- 294 mm
WEST RAJASTHAN ------------- 294 mm
HAR.CH & DELHI ------------- 273 mm
PUNJAB --------------------- 231 mm
TN & PONDICHERRY ----------- 201 mm

--------------****----------------
Data from IMD. Any errors pls
point this out to me
Vagaries' Comments: The next 2/3 days it seems will maintain between 8 to 8.5 mms/day. 


Latest Picture of Neral  sent by Abhijit on Tuesday Morning...


Scene from Badlapur near Matheran..sent by Abhijit on Monday 10th. 


THIS WEEK'S ALL INDIA (02/9/2012 to 09/9/2012) RAINFALL ANALYSIS
-----------------------------------
TOTAL ALL INDIA RAINFALL(SEASON+/-)
-----------------------------------
09/9/2012 ----------- 708 MM (-9%)
19/8/2012 ----------- 637 MM (-12%)
RAINFALL THIS WEEK --- 71 MM

TO ACHEIVE BY 30TH SEPTEMBER..
-----------------------------------
min 700mm --- ACHEIVED ON 08/9/2012
average 900mm ------ 9.14 mm p/d
maximum 1100mm ---- 18.67 mm p/d

CURRENT RAINFALL is 7.01 mm p/d
----------------------------------
TOP FIVE SUBDIVISIONS THIS WEEK..
------------------------------KONKAN & GOA -------- 297.4 mm
A & N ISLAND -------- 197.5 mm
COASTAL KARNATAKA --- 172.8 mm
GUJARAT ------------- 149.2 mm
GANGETIC WB --------- 148.5 mm

BOTTOM FIVE SUBDVISIONS THIS WEEK..
-----------------------------------BIHAR ---------------- 22.1 mm
WEST UP -------------- 20.7 mm
PUNJAB --------------- 20.5 mm
HAR.CHD & DELHI ------ 16.8 mm
TN & PONDICHERRY ----- 13.5 mm

Total ABOVE AVG days this week ------ 6

Total ABOVE AVG days
this season -------------- 29 (29%)

Total BELOW AVG days
this season -------------- 72 (71%)

This week I am giving seasonal top/bottom subdivisions;

TOP FIVE SUBDIVISIONS THIS SEASON 
-----------------------------------
SO FAR : -
-------
COASTAL KARNATAKA --------- 2952 mm
KONKAN & GOA -------------- 2651 mm
SHWB & SIKKIM ------------- 1690 mm
KERALA -------------------- 1437 mm
ASSAM & MEGHALAYA --------- 1416 mm

BOTTOM FIVE SUBDIVISIONS THIS
----------------------------------
SEASON SO FAR : -
--------------
WEST RAJASTHAN ----------- 272.1 mm
HAR.CHD & DELHI ---------- 243.5 mm
SAURASHTRA & KUTCH ------- 220.4 mm
PUNJAB ------------------- 203.0 mm
TN & PONDICHERRY --------- 183.8 mm

--------------****----------------
Data from IMD. Any errors pls
point this out to me



x---------------------------x------------------------------x------------------------------x---------------x



THIS WEEK'S ALL INDIA (26/8/2012 to 02/9/2012) RAINFALL ANALYSIS
-----------------------------------

TOTAL ALL INDIA RAINFALL(SEASON+/-)
-----------------------------------
02/9/2012 ----------- 637 MM (-12%)
26/8/2012 ----------- 588 MM (-13%)
RAINFALL THIS WEEK -- 49 MM


TO ACHEIVE BY 30TH SEPTEMBER..
-----------------------------------
minimum 700mm ------ 2.25 mm p/d
average 900mm ------ 9.39 mm p/d
maximum 1100mm ---- 16.54 mm p/d

CURRENT RAINFALL is 6.78 mm p/d
----------------------------------

TOP FIVE SUBDIVISIONS THIS WEEK..
-----------------------------------
COASTAL KARNATAKA ------- 336.4 mm
KONKAN & GOA ------------ 327.7 mm
A & N iSLAND ------------ 200.3 mm
KERALA ------------------ 160.2 mm
LAKSHWADEEP ------------- 147.4 mm

BOTTOM FIVE SUBDVISIONS THIS WEEK..
-----------------------------------
PUNJAB ------------------- 17.6 mm
GANGETIC WB -------------- 15.7 mm 
TN & PONDICHERRY --------- 11.5 mm
JHARKHAND ---------------- 7.6 mm
BIHAR -------------------- 7.1 mm

Total ABOVE AVG days this week - 3

Total ABOVE AVG days
this season -------------- 26 (28%)

Total BELOW AVG days
this season -------------- 68 (72%)

SUBDIVISIONS WITH +VE RAINFALL -- 8
SUBDIVISIONS WITH -VE RAINFALL - 28

NOTE: The required daily rainfall for a 900mm total Monsoon has gone over 9 mm. 

--------------****----------------
Data from IMD. Any errors pls
point this out to me 
7:33 PM, September 02, 2012
 Delete
x------------------------------x----------------------------------------------x----------------------------------------------x-----------------------------------x**********************-----------------------------------------------------****************************------------------------------*****8

THIS WEEK'S ALL INDIA (19/8/2012 to 26/8/2012) RAINFALL ANALYSIS
-----------------------------------

TOTAL ALL INDIA RAINFALL(SEASON+/-)
-----------------------------------
26/8/2012 ----------- 588 MM (-13%)
19/8/2012 ----------- 525 MM (-16%)
RAINFALL THIS WEEK -- 63 MM

TO ACHEIVE BY 30TH SEPTEMBER..
-----------------------------------
minimum 700mm ------ 3.2 mm p/d
average 900mm ------ 8.91 mm p/d
maximum 1100mm ----- 14.63 mm p/d

CURRENT RAINFALL is 6.76 mm p/d
----------------------------------

TOP FIVE SUBDIVISIONS THIS WEEK..
-----------------------------------
ARUNACHAL PRADESH ------- 166.2 mm
HIMACHAL PRADESH -------- 134.7 mm
SHWB & SIKKIM ----------- 125.3 mm
A&N ISLAND -------------- 117.9 mm
UTTARAKHAND ------------- 108.2 mm

BOTTOM FIVE SUBDVISIONS THIS WEEK..
-----------------------------------
TN & PONDICHERRY --------- 29.0 mm
MARATHWADA --------------- 26.4 mm
N.I.KARNATAKA ------------ 22.5 mm
GUJRAT ------------------- 17.3 mm
SAURASHTRA & KUTCH ------- 7.8 mm

Total ABOVE AVG days this week - 4
Total ABOVE AVG days
this season -------------- 23 (26%)

Total BELOW AVG days
this season -------------- 64 (74%)

SEASON'S EXCESS/SCANTY SUBDIVISIONS
-----------------------------------
EXCESS (0)----- N.A

SCANTY (1)----- SAURASHTRA & KUTCH

--------------****----------------
Data from IMD. Any errors pls
point this out to me 

NOTE: Data of Madhya Maharashta has been excluded from the analysis this week as IMD is showing negative (!!) rainfall of 16 mm. Total of 392.5mm on the 19th August has come down to 376.5 this 26th August!!



THIS WEEK'S ALL INDIA (12/8/2012 to 19/8/2012) RAINFALL ANALYSIS
-----------------------------------

TOTAL ALL INDIA RAINFALL(SEASON+/-)
-----------------------------------
19/8/2012 ----------- 525 MM (-16%)
12/8/2012 ----------- 473 MM (-16%)
RAINFALL THIS WEEK -- 52 MM

TO ACHEIVE BY 30TH SEPTEMBER..
-----------------------------------
minimum 700mm ------ 4.17 mm p/d
average 900mm ------ 8.93 mm p/d
maximum 1100mm ----- 13.7 mm p/d

CURRENT RAINFALL is 6.56 mm p/d
----------------------------------

TOP FIVE SUBDIVISIONS THIS WEEK..
-----------------------------------

COASTAL KARNATAKA ------- 161.7 mm
ORISSA ------------------ 134.0 mm
KERALA ------------------ 123.3 mm
LAKSHWADWEEP ------------ 121.4 mm
UTTARAKHAND ------------- 107.5 mm

BOTTOM FIVE SUBDVISIONS THIS WEEK..
-----------------------------------
RAYALASEEMA -------------- 12.0 mm
MARATHWADA --------------- 10.4 mm
N.I.KARNATAKA ------------ 9.7 mm
HAR.CH&DELHI ------------- 7.3 mm
SAURASHTRA & KUTCH ------- 4.8 mm

Total ABOVE AVG days this week - 2
Total ABOVE AVG days
this season -------------- 19 (24%)

Total BELOW AVG days
this season -------------- 61 (76%)

SEASON'S EXCESS/SCANTY SUBDIVISIONS
-----------------------------------
EXCESS (0)----- N.A

SCANTY (3)----- HAR.CH.DEL,PUNJAB, SAU&KUTCH

--------------****----------------
Data from IMD. Any errors pls
point this out to me 

x-----------x------------------------------------x-------------------------------------x--------------------------------------x
Very Good and Easy to Understand Analysis of Bangalore Rainfall done with meticulous hard Work by GSB:...Thanks.


I have done some basic analysis of the Bangalore data that was with me..

I dividied the year into FOUR SEASONS suitable for Banglore..

1.JAN and FEB (WINTER)
2.MAR to MAY (PRE MONSOON)
3.JUN to SEP (SW MONSOON)
4.OCT to DEC (NE MONSOON)

I then divided the data set of 1900 to 2004 into four periods..

1.1900 to 1925
2.1926 to 1950
3.1951 to 1975
4.1976 to 2004

These were the findings;

SEASON ONE (JAN and FEB)
---------------------------------
1. PERIOD ONE (1900 to 1925)..
AVERAGE RAINFALL ...... 15 MM

2. PERIOD TWO (1926 to 1950)..
AVERAGE RAINFALL ...... 19 MM

3. PERIOD THREE (1951 to 1975)
AVERAGE RAINFALL ...... 2 MM

4. PERIOD FOUR (1976 to 2004)
AVERAGE RAINFALL ...... 9 MM

SEASON TWO (MAR to MAY)
----------------------------------
1. PERIOD ONE (1900 to 1925)..
AVERAGE RAINFALL ...... 106 MM

2. PERIOD TWO (1926 to 1950)..
AVERAGE RAINFALL ...... 154 MM

3. PERIOD THREE (1951 to 1975)
AVERAGE RAINFALL ...... 141 MM

4. PERIOD FOUR (1976 to 2004)
AVERAGE RAINFALL ...... 176 MM

SEASON THREE (JUN to SEP)
----------------------------------
1. PERIOD ONE (1900 to 1925)..
AVERAGE RAINFALL ...... 411 MM

2. PERIOD TWO (1926 to 1950)..
AVERAGE RAINFALL ...... 402 MM

3. PERIOD THREE (1951 to 1975)
AVERAGE RAINFALL ...... 360 MM

4. PERIOD FOUR (1976 to 2004)
AVERAGE RAINFALL ...... 553 MM

SEASON FOUR (OCT to DEC)
----------------------------------
1. PERIOD ONE (1900 to 1925)..
AVERAGE RAINFALL ...... 186 MM

2. PERIOD TWO (1926 to 1950)..
AVERAGE RAINFALL ...... 222 MM

3. PERIOD THREE (1951 to 1975)
AVERAGE RAINFALL ...... 213 MM

4. PERIOD FOUR (1976 to 2004)
AVERAGE RAINFALL ...... 221 MM

AVERAGE ANNUAL RAINFALL
-----------------------------------
PERIOD ONE …….. 718 MM
PERIOD TWO …….. 797 MM
PERIOD THREE ….. 716 MM
PERIOD FOUR ……. 959 MM

OBSERVATIONS (upto 2004 only)
-----------------------------------
1. SEASON ONE rainfall has reduced in the last 100 years.
2. SEASON TWO rainfall has increased in the last 100 years.
3.SEASON THREE after showing decrease in PERIOD THREE has increased significantly in PERIOD FOUR.
4. SEASON FOUR is relatively stable over the entire period.
5. ANNUAL RAINFALL(AVG) has increased in PERIOD FOUR.

If the data is erroneous or my observations are faulty please let me know. I think debate over Bangalore rainfall should be settled once and for all.


x---------------------------------x-----------------------------------x-----------------------------x----------------------x-----------------------------------x---------------------------------x----------------------x
GSB Provides these figures:

THIS WEEK'S ALL INDIA (05/8/2012 to 12/8/2012) RAINFALL ANALYSIS
-----------------------------------

TOTAL ALL INDIA RAINFALL(SEASON+/-)
-----------------------------------
12/8/2012 ----------- 473 MM (-16%)
05/8/2012 ----------- 410 MM (-18%)
RAINFALL THIS WEEK -- 63 MM

TO ACHEIVE BY 30TH SEPTEMBER..
-----------------------------------
minimum 700mm ------ 4.63 mm p/d
average 900mm ------ 8.71 mm p/d
maximum 1100mm ----- 12.8 mm p/d

CURRENT RAINFALL is 6.48 mm p/d
----------------------------------

TOP FIVE SUBDIVISIONS THIS WEEK..
-----------------------------------
COASTAL KARNATAKA ------- 484.3 mm
KONKAN & GOA ------------ 207.6 mm
KERALA ------------------ 167.6 mm
WEST MADHYA PRADESH ----- 162.0 mm
EAST MADHYA PRADESH ----- 134.6 mm

BOTTOM FIVE SUBDVISIONS THIS WEEK..
-----------------------------------
JAMMU & KASHMIR --------- 16.9 mm
RAYALASEEMA ------------- 15.6 mm
MARATHWADA -------------- 13.3 mm
PUNJAB ------------------ 10.2 mm
SAURASHTRA & KUTCH ------ 1.1 mm

Total above avg days this week - 4
Total above avg days
this season -- 17 (23%)

Total below avg days
this season -- 56 (77%)

SEASON'S EXCESS/SCANTY SUBDIVISIONS
-----------------------------------
EXCESS (1)----- WEST M.P

SCANTY (3)----- HAR.CH.DEL, PUNJAB, SAU&KUTCH

--------------****----------------
Data from IMD. Any errors pls
point this out to me..


x-------------------x-------------------------------------------x-----------------------------------------x---------------------x
Fantastic Maharashtra Toppers from Pradeep:  1st Aug-6th August

Kitwade crosses 4000 mm for the SW monsoon 2012 ahead of Agumbe, Gaganbavada, Kollur, Amboli and Dajipur
------------------
The August rainfall in the past 6 days, from 1st August to 6st August, 2012, many places in Maharashtra has got very very heavy rainfall. Kitwade in Maharashtra crossed 4000 mm for SWM 2012 ahead of other heavy weights Agumbe, Gaganbavada, Kollur, Amboli and Dajipur. It is only the second station behin

Rainfall in mm (Min - 750 mm) 

Kitwade - 1080 mm
01.08.2012 - 100
02.08.2012 - 110
03.08.2012 - 161 
04.08.2012 - 283
05.08.2012 - 238
06.08.2012 - 188 

Amboli - 865 mm
01.08.2012 - 52
02.08.2012 - 65
03.08.2012 - 228
04.08.2012 - 160
05.08.2012 - 175
06.08.2012 - 185 

Mahabaleshwar - 841 mm
01.08.2012 - 244
02.08.2012 - 242
03.08.2012 - 131
04.08.2012 - 101
05.08.2012 - 42
06.08.2012 - 81

Mulshi Dam - 813 mm
01.08.2012 - 280
02.08.2012 - 178
03.08.2012 - 80
04.08.2012 - 87
05.08.2012 - 76
06.08.2012 - 112

Shirgaon Ghat - 810 mm
01.08.2012 - 280
02.08.2012 - 180
03.08.2012 - 80
04.08.2012 - 90
05.08.2012 - 70
06.08.2012 - 110

Tamini Ghat - 780 mm
01.08.2012 - 270
02.08.2012 - 200
03.08.2012 - 70
04.08.2012 - 120
05.08.2012 - 60
06.08.2012 - 60

The Top Maharashtra SWM rainfall places (minimum 3000 mm) till 6th August, 2012

Kitwade - 4161
Dajipur - 3644
Amboli - 3599 
Patagon - 3598
Gaganbawada - 3496
Sangameshwar - 3449
Tamini Ghat - 3261
Kasari - 3210
Mulshi Dam - 3208
Shiragon Ghat - 3130
Mahabaleshwar - 3029
Dawadi - 3005 


x------------------------------x-----------------------------------x------------------------------x----------x
GSB gives


THIS WEEK'S RAINFALL ANALYSIS
-----------------------------------

TOTAL ALL INDIA RAINFALL
-----------------------------------
05/8/2012 ------------- 410 MM
29/7/2012 ------------- 344 MM
RAINFALL THIS WEEK ---- 66 MM

TO ACHEIVE BY 30TH SEPTEMBER..
-----------------------------------
minimum 700mm ------ 5.18 mm p/d
average 900mm ------ 8.75 mm p/d
maximum 1100mm ----- 12.32 mm p/d

CURRENT RAINFALL is 6.21 mm p/d
----------------------------------
The figures last week were..
(29/7/2012)
(to achieve by 30th September..)
-----------------------------------
(minimum 700mm 5.65 mm per day)
(average 900mm 8.83 mm p/d)
(maximum 1100mm 12.0 mm p/d)
(current rainfall is 5.4 mm p/d)

TOP FIVE SUBDIVISIONS THIS WEEK..
-----------------------------------
KONKAN & GOA -------- 224.1 mm
UTTARAKHAND -------- 195.1 mm
CHHATTISGARH -------- 168.4 mm
COASTAL KARNATAKA -------- 157.4 mm
ORISSA -------- 136.2 mm

BOTTOM FIVE SUBDVISIONS THIS WEEK..
-----------------------------------
HAR. CHD & DELHI -------- 7.2 mm
LAKSHADWEEP -------- 3.1 mm
SAURASHTRA & KUTCH-------- 1.5 mm
TAMILNADU & PONDICHERRY--- 1.4 mm
WEST RAJASTHAN -------- 0.7 mm

Data from IMD. Any errors pls point this out to me..
----------------------------***----*****------------------------------

Today was the THIRTEENTH above average All India rainfall at 9.8 MM.
Thus far we have had 13 (20%) above average rainfall days and 53 (80%) below average rainfall days..
The above figures are till 8.30 am today.



x------------------------------x----------------------------------------x-------------------------------x---------------------x
THIS WEEK'S RAINFALL ANALYSIS
-----------------------------------

TOTAL ALL INDIA RAINFALL
-----------------------------------
29/7/2012 344 MM

22/7/2012 286 MM

RAINFALL THIS WEEK 58 MM


TO ACHEIVE BY 30TH SEPTEMBER..
-----------------------------------
minimum 700mm 5.65 mm per day
avgerage 900mm 8.83 mm p/d
maximum 1100mm 12.0 mm p/d

current RAINFALL is 5.83 mm p/d


The figures last week were..


(22/7/2012) 

(to achieve by 30th September..) 
-----------------------------------
(minimum 700mm 6.0 mm per day)
(avgerage 900mm 8.9 mm p/d)
(maximum 1100mm 11.8 mm p/d)

(current RAINFALL is 5.4 mm p/d)

TOP FIVE SUBDIVISIONS THIS WEEK..
-----------------------------------
WEST MADHYA PRADESH 186.1 MM
COASTAL KARNATAKA 180.5 MM
VIDARBHA 125.0 MM
UTTARAKHAND 116.3 MM
KONKAN & GOA 112.5 MM

BOTTOM FIVE SUBDVISIONS THIS WEEK..
-----------------------------------
GUJARAT REGION 12.0 MM
HAR. CHD & DELHI 7.4 MM 
WEST RAJASTHAN 3.0 MM
TAMILNADU & PONDICHERRY 2.4 MM
SAURASHTRA & KUTCH 0.3 MM

Data from IMD. Any errors pls point this out to me..


Today was the NINTH above average All India rainfall at 10.4 MM.






Thus far we have had 9 (15%) above average rainfall days and 51 (85%) below average rainfall days..

The above figures are till 8.30 am today.. 
x-------------------------------x-------------------------------------x----------------------------------------x--------------x


ALL INDIA..

22/7/2012 286 mm
---------
to achieve by 30th September.. 
minimum 700mm 6.0 mm per day
avgerage 900mm 8.9 mm p/d
maximum 1100mm 11.8 mm p/d
current RAINFALL is 5.4 mm p/d

The figures last week were..

16/7/2012 243mm
---------
to achieve by 30th September..
minimum 700mm 6.0mm per day
avgerage 900mm 8.6mm p/d
maximum 1100mm 11.3mm p/d
current RAINFALL is 5.28 mm p/d 


x--------------------------------x-------------------------------------x----------------------------------x---------------------x
Prepared By Pradeep for vagaries....

It is 50 days into the monsoon, Cherrapunji can be declared as a winner even before crossing half way into the monsoon. The lead is nearly 4000 mm between first and second spot. In 2011, we had 12 stations which crossed 2750 mm mark till July 20th. This year the list has gotten shrunken to just 1. There is no point in making ranking list for one station. So the cut-off has been reduced to 2000mm from 2750mm.

The 2011 link till 20.07.2011 is here - 
Rainfall in mm (Minimum of 2000 mm)
  1. Cherrapunji (Meghalaya) -6266
  2. Chepan (West Bengal) - 2610
  3. Sangameshwar (Maharashtra) - 2403
  4. Gazoldoba (West Bengal) - 2380
  5. Kumargram (West Bengal) - 2360
  6. Barobhisa (West Bengal) -2350
  7. Hasimara (West Bengal) -2340
  8. Agumbe (Karnataka) -2317
  9. Gokarna (Karnataka) - 2315
  10. Gaganbawda (Maharashtra) - 2309
  11. Pernem (Goa) - 2240
  12. Dajipur (Maharashtra) - 2224
  13. Passighat (Arunachal Pradesh) - 2210 
  14. Falakata (West Bengal) - 2180
  15. Patgaon (Maharashtra) -2173
  16. Amboli (Maharashtra) - 2122
  17. Gossaigaon (Assam) -2070
  18. Coochbehar (West Bengal) - 2058
  19. Kollur (Karnataka) - 2010
  20. Diana (West Bengal) - 2005
  21. Kokrajhar (Assam) -2000
  22. Quepem (Goa) -2000

x--------------------------x--------------------------------x------------------------------x------------------x

Badlapur station at 10 pm today...


Sent by Vijayanand :


Quoting Praveen from Keaweather:

Rainfall stats (total in cm) for bengaluru since 2004..

Year – City – HAL AP
2004 – 115 – 112
2005 – 149 – 142
2006 – 68 – 59
2007- 125 – 102
2008- 129 – 118
2009- 106 – 90
2010- 104 – 90
2011- 118 – 113

Avg – 114 – 103

Source : Compiled from weather report in Hindu newspaper
Time : Tonight around 8.30 pm (Wednesday)



x-----------------------x-----------------------------x-----------------------x----------x

A SINCERE THANK YOU...

The support is unrelenting, and interactions from readers wholehearted. No wonder Vagaries' visitor counter has crossed the 200,000 mark!

Each prediction made by Vagaries has been, as far as possible, supported by charts and reasoning. Its always prudent for a meteorologist to explain and not just prophesies. Things may eventually fall in place or go either way. 
Like I said, I am a meteorologist, not a magician.

When we started our 'Interactive' page, the contributions from readers were very helpful, and inflow of information and pictures from different regions became a reality. 
Vagaries is doing its small bit for farmers. The Aurangabad District farmers in Maharashtra are given the weather information to help them choose their crops and judge the sowing, watering and manuring timing.

Special thanks to all the well wishers and supporters of Vagaries whose constant feedback and suggestions has kept me going.
Local information from Neeraj (Kathmandu) and several followers from Islamabad, Karachi and Sukkur has given Vagaries the proper sub-continent touch. PWP, our 
exchange of views has benefited both.

Max, has always touched up my records, and kept the inflow of record breaking temperatures and events coming, from Thailand and elsewhere.
And cannot forget the suggestions and help extended by Jim (Accuweather) during my interactions with him in the U.S. 

Pradeep, I feel, with your superb compilation of  rain totals, readers are now waiting more for this than the actual Vagaries write up. Rajan, of "Dev Consultancy", surely our forthcoming "joint Notes" will be of immense interest to readers..

I appreciate the "likes" from my "FB" friends..

And above all, thanks to everyone for allowing me to feel that you actually trust my forecasting  -:)))

Vagaries is keeping the same "old" look...too much confusion and "dis-Likes"....-:))


Pradeep's compilation of All India Toppers as on 10th July 2012:

All India SWM Rainfall Toppers from 01.06.12 to 10.07.12
As you can see Cherrapunji has 100% lead over its second placed south India counterpart Agumbe. The surprise is no station from Kerala and Tamil Nadu are found in the list compared to last year.
Rainfall in mm (Minimum of 1500 mm)
  1. Cherrapunji (Meghalaya) - 3985
  2. Agumbe (Karnataka) - 1966
  3. Pernem (Goa) - 1917
  4. Gaganbawda (Maharashtra) - 1880
  5. Kumargram (West Bengal) - 1860
  6. Chepan (West Bengal) - 1850
  7. Falakata (West Bengal) - 1840
  8. Kollur (Karnataka) -1760
  9. Gokarna (Karnataka) - 1750
  10. Patgaon (Maharashtra) - 1742
  11. Amboli (Maharashtra) - 1742
  12. Sangameshwar (Maharashtra) - 1735
  13. Kokrajhar (Assam) - 1690 *
  14. Barobhisa (West Bengal) - 1680
  15. Coochbehar (West Bengal) - 1665
  16. Quepem (Goa) - 1643
  17. Shirali (Karnataka) - 1617
  18. Malvan (Maharashtra) - 1596
  19. Gossaigaon (Assam) - 1560 *
  20. Hasimara (West Bengal) -1550
  21. Karkala (Karnataka) - 1530
  22. Siddapura (Karnataka) - 1510
 * Some days rainfall is missing. 
In order to add more spice to the list, i have introduced the state wise top 5 places. This covers only the states which has Heavy Rainfall Sations (HRF).
State-wise Toppers (Rainfall in mm)
Meghlaya 
  1. Cherrapunji  - 3985
  2. Jowai - 1110
  3. Williamnagar - 1050
  4. Baghmara - 800
  5. Nongostin - 700
 Arunachal Pradesh
  1. Passighat - 1462
  2. Itanagar - 1132 
  3. Tuting -1090
  4. Tezu - 880
  5. Anini - 710
Assam
  1. Kokrajhar - 1690 *
  2. Gossaigaon 1560 *
  3. Kajalgaon - 1250 *
  4. Dhubri - 1184
  5. Chouldhowaghat - 1050
West Bengal 
  1. Kumargram - 1860
  2. Chepan - 1850
  3. Falakata - 1840
  4. Barobhisa - 1680
  5. Coochbehar - 1665
Maharashtra
  1. Gaganbawda - 1880
  2. Patagon - 1742 
  3. Amboli - 1742
  4. Sangameshwar - 1735
  5. Malvan - 1596
Maharashtra (Ghats)
  1. Pratapgad - 1200
  2. Tamini - 1050
  3. Dawdi - 1020 
  4. Navaja - 1000
  5. Shirgaon - 1000
Goa
  1. Pernem - 1917
  2. Quepem - 1643
  3. Panaji - 1479
  4. Mapusa - 1441
  5. Valpoi - 1423 
 Karnataka
  1. Agumbe - 1966
  2. Kollur -1760
  3. Gokarna - 1750
  4. Shirali - 1617
  5. Karkala - 1530 
Kerala
  1. Vadakara - 1390
  2. Kudulu -1150
  3. Hosdurg -1090
  4. Kannur - 987
  5. Enamakkal - 970
 Tamil Nadu
  1. Chinnakallar - 1210
  2. Devala - 940
  3. Sholayar - 890 
  4. Valparai - 790
  5. Upper Bhavani - 550
 * Some days rainfall missing and many places in Assam would have got similar or higher rainfall than the places quoted above.



Pic sent by Rajiv from Delhi of todays Storm..





Interesting Statistics Gathered by GSB for all Vagaries' Readers:

All the fans of Vagaries...

I have done some number crunching and come up with these interesting figures....

Overall monsoon in India was the WORST in these 10 years (last one being the worst i.e. 1972 with 697.4mm rainfall)..

(year,jun,jul,aug,sep,total)
1901, 109.1, 241.4, 284.2, 121.9, 756.6
1951, 152.6, 248.4, 227.6, 120.6, 749.2
1911, 189.5, 158.5, 212.5, 183.1, 743.5
1965, 114.9, 282.6, 205.4, 135.4, 738.3
2002, 180.1, 146.2, 259.8, 151.2, 737.3
1918, 206.3, 180.4, 240.7, 109.1, 736.5
1979, 132.4, 264.2, 199.3, 128.9, 724.8
1905, 88.7, 252.5, 202.6, 174.6, 718.5
2009, 85.7, 280.6, 192.5, 139.4, 698.2
1972, 127.4, 215.6, 218.1, 136.3, 697.4

The BEST 10 years (Top one being the best 1917 with 1124.2mm rainfall)....

(year,jun,jul,aug,sep,total)

1917, 218.1, 279.3, 300.7, 283.1, 1124.2
1988, 165.8, 381.6, 325.1, 221.5, 1094.1
1961, 193.5, 345.9, 295.7, 243.1, 1078.2
1933, 220.8, 293.8, 328.2, 218.2, 1061
1916, 233.8, 301.5, 318.8, 202, 1056.1
1942, 187.4, 356.6, 303.3, 193.2, 1040.5
1959, 168.4, 374.3, 263.3, 230.7, 1036.7
1964, 179.8, 358.3, 288.4, 205, 1031.4
1958, 123.7, 326.1, 328.7, 234.5, 1012.9
1975, 173.8, 314.4, 296.6, 226.7, 1011.4

some important conclusions.. 

1917 the best was followed by 1918 the fifth worst year on record.

1916 and 1917 were the fifth best and THE best on record.

All the top ten are in the 20th century.

Two of the worst are in the 21st century.

1988 was the last year to figure in the top ten best list.

Four of the best top ten are clustered between 1958 and 1964.

Three of the worst are nearby between 1901 and 1911.

Tomorrow some more interesting numbers... 

Wednesday Morning scenes from Mahalaxmi Mumbai......





Pradeep's Latest List of SWM Toppers as on June End..Thanks Pradeep:

All India SWM Toppers from 01.06.2012 to 30.06.2012
------------------------------
--
After 30 days into monsoon, Cherrapunji in Meghlaya has run away from the pack. (SWM 2011 comparative figures till June 30). There are only 35 stations which crossed 1000 mm mark for June 2012, compared to 53 stations in 2011.

 Maharashtra has 8 stations in the list in June 2012 compared to 25 stations in June 2011. Meanwhile, West Bengal which had 0 stations in 2011 has 7 stations in the list in June 2012. The surprise package is however Goa, almost all stations managed to cross 1000 mm rainfall. Karnataka which had 18 stations in 2011 has only 9 stations in 2012.  Kerala has only one entrant in Vadakara, last year it had 7 stations. The dry phase of MJO is coming to an end so watch out for the toppers during next list. I would keep an eye on Chinna Kallar in Tamil Nadu. It had a quite June and yet managed to get 800 mm. July is its wettest month. 

Rainfall in mm (Minimum of 1000 mm)

    Cherrapunji (Meghalaya) - 3445
    Chepan (West Bengal) - 1550
    Falakata (West Bengal) - 1520
    Kumargram (West Bengal) - 1470
    Barobhisa (West Bengal) - 1430
    Pernem (Goa) - 1387
    Gokarna (Karnataka) - 1380
    Agumbe (Karnataka) - 1366
    Malvan (Maharashtra) - 1332
    Kokrajhar (Assam) - 1320 *
    Shirali (Karnataka) - 1258
    Kollur (Karnataka) - 1240
    Panjim (Goa) - 1177
    Coochbehar (West Bengal) - 1177
    Quepem (Goa) - 1174
    Gossaigaon (Assam) - 1170 *
    Mormugao (Goa) - 1149 
    Patgaon (Maharashtra) - 1140
    Hasimara (West Bengal) -1140
    Vadakara (Kerala) - 1130
    Passighat (Arunachal Pradesh) - 1111
    Udupi (Karnataka) - 1110
    Dabolim (Goa) - 1096
    Karkala (Karnataka) - 1080
    Mapusa (Goa) - 1079
    Gaganbawda (Maharashtra) - 1065
    Buxaduar (West Bengal) - 1060
    Siddapura (Karnataka) - 1050 
    Amboli (Maharashtra) - 1047
    Karwar (Karnataka) - 1047 
    Devgad (Maharashtra) - 1037
    Honavar (Karnataka) - 1029
    Dodamarg (Maharashtra) - 1026
    Chiplun (Maharashtra) - 1015
    Sangameshwar (Maharashtra) - 1009 

* For Kokrajhar, Kajalgaon  and  Gossaigaon Some days of rainfall data is not available, yet they managed to make it to the list.

All figures compiled with limited data and IMD resources. Other places such as Mawsynaram, Hulikal, Barepta, Bongaigaon and Kajalgaon would have also have made it to the list. Next cutoff list is 1500 mm (to be published on 10th July 2012).


Pradeep's Latest List of SWM Toppers..Thanks Pradeep:

All India SWM Toppers from 01.06.2012 to 24.06.2012
The dry phase of MJO is spoiling the HRF figures. It is surprise that after 24 days into June, only one station from Peninsular India managed to cross 1000 mm. Just compare with 2011 figures for similar period. (SWM 2011 comparative figures). Meanwhile, the North Eastern HRF stations continue to impress. They failed miserably in 2011, but 2012 till June is definitely theirs. The MJO wet phase begins at end of first week of July, hopefully the peninsular HRF stations rock to their potential.
Rainfall in mm (Minimum of 700 mm)
  1. Cherrapunji (Meghalaya) - 1975
  2. Kumargram (West Bengal) - 1135
  3. Falakata (West Bengal) - 1110
  4. Malvan (Maharashtra) - 1080
  5. Chepan (West Bengal) - 1000
  6. Agumbe (Karnataka) - 990 
  7. Shirali (Karnataka) - 965 
  8. Coochbehar (West Bengal) - 930
  9. Gokarna (Karnataka) - 920
  10. Kollur (Karnataka) - 920
  11. Udupi (Karnataka) - 900
  12. Patgaon (Maharashtra) - 890
  13. Pernem (Goa) - 885
  14. Barobhisha (West Bengal) - 870
  15. Panjim (Goa) - 865 
  16. Gaganbawda (Maharashtra) - 820 
  17. Karkala (Karnataka) - 810
  18. Mayabunder (Andaman & Nicobar Islands) - 805
  19. Dhubri (Assam) - 800
  20. Hasimara (West Bengal) -795
  21. Dabolim (Goa) - 795
  22. Gazoldoba (West Bengal) - 790
  23. Vadakara (Kerala) - 785
  24. Vengurla (Maharashtra) - 785
  25. Mapusa (Goa) - 775
  26. Mormugao (Goa) - 770 
  27. Honavar (Karnataka) - 760
  28. Buxaduar (West Bengal) - 750
  29. Karwar (Karnataka) - 735
  30. Gangtok (Sikkim) - 730
  31. Passighat (Arunachal Pradesh) - 725 
  32. Dodamarg (Maharashtra) - 720
  33. Panambur (Karnataka) - 710
  34. Dapoli (Maharashtra) - 710
  35. Quepem (Goa) - 700
  36. Devgad (Maharashtra) - 700
  37. Silchar (Assam) - 700
  38. Nagarkata (West Bengal) - 700
  39. Chinnakallar (Tamil Nadu) - 700
  40. Siddapura (Karnataka) - 700 
  41. Diana (West Bengal) - 700 
  42. Enamakkal (Kerala)  - 700 
All figures compiled with limited data and IMD resources. Other places such as Mawsynaram, Long Island, Castle Rock and Hulikal would have also have made it to the list. Next cutoff list is 1000 mm (to be published on 1st July 2012). 






All India SWM Toppers from 01.06.2012 to 18.06.2012
-----------------------

The much awaited SWM toppers list is back. Due to slow and delayed progress of Monsoon, i have waited till the Heavy Rainfall Stations (HRF) get some mm's in their account before i publish the list.

Rainfall in mm (Minimum of 500 mm)
  1.     Cherrapunji (Meghalaya) - 1565
  2.     Kumargram (West Bengal) - 1100
  3.     Falakata (West Bengal) - 1050
  4.     Chepan (West Bengal) - 850
  5.     Barobhisha (West Bengal) - 810
  6.     Coochbehar (West Bengal) - 810
  7.     Mayabynder (Andaman & Nicobar Islands) - 780
  8.     Dhubri (Assam) - 760
  9.     Hasimara (West Bengal) - 690
  10.     Nagarkata (West Bengal) - 680
  11.     Gaganbawada (Maharashtra) - 670
  12.     Pernem (Goa) - 665
  13.     Udupi (Karnataka) - 660
  14.     Gangtok (Sikkim) - 655
  15.     Gokarna (Karnataka) - 640
  16.     Agumbe (Karnataka) - 635
  17.     Diana (West Bengal) - 630
  18.     Buxa (West Bengal) - 630
  19.     Vadakara (Kerala) - 620
  20.     Kollur (Karnataka) - 600
  21.     Patgaon (Maharashtra) - 595
  22.     Panaji (Goa) - 590
  23.     Shirali (Karnataka) - 580
  24.     Murti (West Bengal) - 560
  25.     Tadong (Sikkim) - 560
  26.     Dapoli (Maharashtra) - 555
  27.     Mathabhanga (West Bengal) - 540
  28.     Khowai (Tripura) - 530
  29.     Vengurla (Maharashtra) - 530
  30.     Karkala (Karnataka) - 525
  31.     Malvan (Maharashtra) - 520
  32.     Kudal (Maharashtra) - 515
  33.     Dabolim (Goa) - 510
  34.     Panambur (Karnataka) - 510
  35.     Mapusa (Goa) - 505
  36.     Honavar (Karnataka) - 500
  37.     Bagadora (West Bengal) - 500
  38.     Williamnagar (Meghlaya) -500
  39.     Champasari (West Bengal) - 500
  40.     Quilandy (Kerala) - 500

All figures compiled with limited data and IMD resources. Other places such as Mawsynaram, Long Island, Castle Rock and Hulikal would have also have made it to the list. Next cutoff list is 750 mm (to be published on 24th June 2012). 






Pic from Dinesh Tambat ,Aurangabad..

Guys, I'll surely write on this, sky colouring and sun set colours and the relation to weather forecasting..just give me some time  -:))



Pic sent by Akshay from Cherrapunji Today (Monday, 4th June).


Pic sent by Nimisha from HP: Self explanatory

y
Writes Nimisha:- "Sure Rajesh, this is 3rd of May, 15.51 hours and the altitude here is 3556 meters according to google but there on a board it was written 11,200 feet which is slightly more than 3556 meters. The thing here is that before climbing down to Har ki Dun which is a valley, you do cross a much higher altitude... you climb up, and then you climb down to Har ki Dun".


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Pic of Pune Sent by Shiraz from Mahableshwar:

Lightning strikes the Subrata Roy Sahara Stadium, Pune on Tuesday, 8th May.

x-----------------------------------x--------------------------------x--------------------x
SWM forecast,analysis and Discussions with Rajan:

Hi Rajesh!. From this forecast map it does look that around 30% of the country will receive below average rains. 

The forecasted excess rainfall areas maybe around 10%. 

This would leave less than 60% of the country with normal rainfall.

With such a geographic rainfall distribution, the overall mean rainfall should slip into the deficient category viz below 90% of LPA.

Is this the correct reading? 

Secondly, I borrowed a technique from Piers Corbyn, he checks back the past to see what similar parameters did then.

So before I made my forecast, I checked up all years where an IOD and El Nino superimposed themselves. I could find just 1930 when it happened and as such this year could be the only second time such a phenomenon can happen, if at all. But I could be wrong and I ask one and all do the same research for a confirmation.

So what did I find in 1930?

Rainfall: 831.5 viz. around 93% of LPA.

Now I do not know the values of IOD and El Nino in 1930 but considering that both the events are extremely weak, I took the gamble of predicting a normal monsoon.

Of course, the methodology could be rubbished but Piers Corbyn swears by it and has a success rate of 80%

I like to hear what all of you think. 

Hello Rajan,
Lets first discuss your observations on my forecast, the SWM over forecast. Like I mentioned, I calculate and evaluate my forecast by taking almost all of Gowariker's parametric and multiple power regression (MPR) models with 15 predictors. Tardy and time consuming, but exhaustive and time prove(again, my views).

1. My calculations were around 33% area under deficit. Ok, almost same as yours. 30% gets 70% of the normal rains.
2. 10% area as excess is ok with me. So this region gets 120% (at least).
3. And, around 57% recieves normal rains, so we take yours as 60 %.Ok. These regions get 100% of the normal rains.

Now, as you say, this comes to 93%, as you calculated (correctly) for India as a whole. Overall mean could move either way Rajan. Our country is so huge, that even if the "excess" regions get >120%, and manage say 140%, the overlall could become 95%, not be in in the deficit. Or the other way round, even with the 140% in "excess" regions, the deficit region show <60%, it could still manage a "normal" over all.

IMD LRF states: "Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall is likely to be  99% of the LPA with a model error of ± 5%".
For Vagaries 93% (I have not put any margin in this. But of-course some reasonable +_ is always considered), the IMD sees Quote-"The probability (24%) of season rainfall to be below normal(90-96% of LPA)".

Secondly, I would not link the IOD with events like ENSO. IOD, I personally feel, is still unproven. Its corelations and connections with ENSO have still to be established. But, ENSO in many ways has proved to have some direct and indirect connections with the "systems and waves" effecting our Monsoon.

About Piers Corbyn's method, though the methodology is correct, I would not link 2 events to a certain year, and compare with this year. 
There are so many other parameters, 16 in all, that also have to be seen, and not necassarily they will all be the same. 
For example, this year, I am noticing the 200 hpa jet streams to be lower South, but we cannot compare that with 2010, when they were low and brought heavy flooding to Pakistan. Other parameters were different.
In 1930, El-Nino year, India had a 5% deficit rain yesr, and a 10% deficit Monsoon in 1928, an Neutral ENSO year !

Like you said Rajan, we are all "young" in this field and always learining. No one can forecast perfectly, and Me too, am still trying to grasp the topic properly.

Regards, Rajesh.

Dear Rajesh,

Wonderful graphical analysis.

North Tamil Nadu seems to be on wetter side during SWM last few years. Taking that into consideration. Chennai should cross 100 mm rainfall in June this year too.

Chennai's June rainfall in last 5 years

2011 - 130 mm
2010 - 137 mm
2009 - 23 mm
2008 - 125 mm
2007 - 94 mm 

As you said Kerala will have reduced rainfall. Will it applicable to Andhra Pradesh too. I think my personal view is andhra this year will be on the normal or excess side.
Pradeep.

Hello Pradeep,
Thanks.
I feel, with the initial sluggishness, Chennai will get the amount I have mentioned, 50-60 mms.
And I have shown Southern Andhra as deficit. The Northern parts will be around normal as some systems will track that way.

Regards, Rajesh.







x---------------x--------------------------x------------------------x-------------x--x

Pradeep, thru his hard work and effort has again supplied us with the rainfall figures. 
And Cherrapunji has taken the lead now after lagging behind for the first 3 months...
Please also vote for the wettest place this SWM, complied by Pradeep, as Pradeep and myself would like to share with all our readers the actaul outcome after the seson, and we are following it up very keenly. The link to the polls is here Poll code or check on his blog.

The all India rainfall figures in mm for the Top 25 places - minimum 400 mm from 1.01.2012 - 30.04.2012.

Cherrapunji (Megahlaya) - 1417
Anini (Arunachal Pradesh) - 1140
Tuting (Arunachal Pradesh) -1080
Silchar (Assam) - 870
Tezu (Arunachal Pradesh) - 730
Piravom (Kerala) - 680
Manali (Himachal Pradesh) - 650
Car Nicobar (Andaman & Nicobar Islands) - 590
Gangtok (Sikkim) - 580
Kochi AP (Kerala) - 532 
Kanjirappally (Kerala) - 530
Passighat (Arunachal Pradesh) -530
Tadong (Sikkim) - 510
Nancowry (Andaman & Nicobar Islands) -490
Dharmashala (Himachal Pradesh) - 450
Punalur (Kerala) - 433 
Kailasahar (Tripura) - 430
Dibrugarh  (Assam) - 420
Perunchani Dam (Tamil Nadu) - 400
Kalpa (Himachal Pradesh) - 400
Shillong (Meghalaya) - 400
Pechiparai Dam (Tamil Nadu) - 400
Other places may also have obtained more rainfall than the station quoted above. 




Rajan's Pertinent Question on MW-4 and my reply copy/Pasted:




















































































































Hi Rajesh. Trust that you are enjoying your vacation (??) in the US.

Europe to face record cold wave:
http://devconsultancygroup.blogspot.in/2012/05/breaking-europe-to-face-record-cold.html

Just wanted to pick your brains whether this could affect the Indian Monsoon, and if so, how
7:18 PM, May 01, 2012
 Delete
Blogger rajesh said...
Rajan: Thanks, Rajan, yes, I'm on a holiday with my son in Cal.
Discussed with a few metmen here to about forecasting thru the computer method, and other ways of looking at the weather, the sub continent weather.
Actually, as per the method i rely on, the Eurasian snow in april,the far western region, is a parameter, that plays a important role in the quantum for our NW and N areas.There is a low predicted by Mark that would bring precipitation to the Central/Eastern Europe regions.The Easterly jet streams are still prevelent in our region, and with rain bearing lows around them over Eastern and SE Europe, the WDs are encouraged to move more Southwards. As a result, they "block" our required Monsoon lows from coming towards the Indian Peninsula. So, the lows, if any, move towards Banglaedash and Myanmar.
 I will be putting up this rainfall aspect in my seasonal forecast map today, showing our NE as excessive rain regions.


Sharing some Interesting pics from Yosemite Park and Bass lake , California 
The width between the rings can indicate how wet (wide) and dry (narrow) a season was ! So much to learn from a dead tree too !

The Giant Grizzly Tree, 1800 Years old !


Half Dome at Yosemite

Galcier Point View from 8000 ft and temperature showed 8c in the evening there.

Sunset from the Highway.

San Francisco Storm, on 6th April, the day after we arrived.
San Francisco photographer captures incredible Bay Bridge electrical storm photo 

San Francisco photographer Phil McGrew says he has been trying to make a picture like this since  two years. Thursday's violent storm finally allowed McGrew the opportunity to make the picture,  from inside his apartment.



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Thick Fog envelopes Dubai on Friday 27th Morning.
Some pics of the fog sent by Priya for vagaries




Beautiful Weather pics from Hawaii...
Development of Thunder clouds over the mountains nearby..these mountains develop thunderclouds almost daily, in the afternoon. The windward side of these mountains,rising upto 5000 feet, receive rainfall between 250 to 400 inches.

The beginning, clouds forming..around 1pm-2pm



Clouds grow and stratus clouds cover the top edges..these pics are taken from a distance.

Anvil is seen and precipitation has started

This pic is taken in the eveing from a nearby location..

another thunderhead across the ocean.



Picture of the Majestic Redwood Forest, Calif.









A pic of a typical "Sun Pillar" or Sun Dog taken in San Francisco.Suggestion: Put the pic as wall paper and see the effect !
and a Pic sent by Rajiv from Delhi..nice catch Rajiv, Thanks





Pic of Gurgaon on Tuesday, 10th at 5.30 pm. Courtesy METD Weather.





Pic sent By Jignesh from Dubai...Sandstorm In Dubai on Sunday 26th Morning. Posted Sunday 1.15 pm
Winds blowing at 40 kmph raised blowing sand.



Neeraj's Report From Kathmandu sent on 23rd Feb
 Yesterday's max was 28 C, which is pretty high. Certainly past few
years, the most it has gone is 27.5, and another 27 in 2010. All were
pre WD heat, as then there was rain afterwards. Not this year. Have to
check and wait for news reports (sometimes reports do not come up at
all), but 28 must be some sort of record.

why this heat ? (though , I have to admit, the low of 6.4 is keeping
things moderate, we still have to wear some sort of warm clothing
because mornings and evenings are still fairly cold, and unless
someone is walking in the midday sun, the real heat is not felt).




Akshay sends pics of Nagpur Rains on Wednesday, 15th,  morning....Thanks





A pic from Dubai as on Monday..
Rajesh, Overcast Monday Morning , as per Vagaries  -:)), ..Priya.



Foggy Delhi pic sent by Rajiv. @7.45 am Thursday 19th


Report from Dehra Dun.Recd on 17th Jan.
Hi Rajesh ,
Snow in Dehradun on Rajpur road after 50 years! Amrita standing on the driveway at 8am on the 9th of Jan.Cheers Ranjit






Report form Neeraj, Kathmandu.


Mornings are cold now. Around 2-3 degrees C everyday. The days are in 17-19 degrees range. Both are in the normal range for this time of the year.

I want to ask you about a few things though. In the past (maybe till the year 2000), the winter weather in Kathmandu used to be much more foggier in the morning. In fact,  Dec, Jan and Feb were defined by morning Fog. The temp in the morning would dip to around 2 C , and from 5:30 AM onward there would be quite thick fog for around three to four hours. Nearly everyday. The fog used to last till at least 10:00 AM; on someday persisting till even 12:00 noon. The days then used to be more or less sunny (unlike in the plains down south, the fog  never used to persist through out the day), some days more sunnier than other, but non the less sunny by large. And only on some especially cold days where the temp used to drop below freezing (to around -1 C at most), there would be no fog, and on those days there used to be quite extensive ground frost.For some reason frost and fog would never occur together. But after the year 2000, this trend has abruptly changed. Now , the morning fog is extremely rare, and even when it occurs its not as intense and does not last as much. And ground frost has all but disappeared. And the temp now does not get below 2.5 C on most winter mornings. I believe this is due to what is known as the 'heat island' effect. Till 2000, Kathmandu Valley had more open areas than the built up areas, now its the opposite. Lot of concrete and asphalt. I heard this would keep the temp of the city core a few degrees higher than the surroundings. True?? And of course a lot of people now live here. Many people who visit Kathmandu for the first time are quite surprised at the size,population and traffic of Kathmandu; they come here expecting a small, quiet mountain town but are faced with a chaotic urban environment.



Cloudy Friday in Dubai.Pics from Dubai sent by Jignesh on Friday, 25th November


x------------------------------x----------------------------------------x----------------------------x----------
Pic from Delhi sent by Rajiv on Tuesday

Posted on 20th November:
De sun! Trying hard to show up, on a foggy morning, in Delhi today (Sunday)...Sent by Rajiv



Posted on 7th November:
Pictures of Dubai taken on Monday sent by Priya.

Cloudy and overcast.



x--------------------------------------x---------------------------------------x---------------------------x----------------------------x-----------------------------------x----------------------------x------------x-






Here’s an interesting photo of the 22-degree Solar halo captured by Mark Shaw of England on September 27, 2011.
Mark used a Lumix DMC-FZ38 camera. He also made some editing using Luminance HDR software.


Instead of concocting, or touching up pics to make up "sights" of Heaven in the sky, this is a natural pic, untouched (you can see the jetplane trail) to run your own imagination.











Reply to Ananth: Posted on 7th September @ 10.50 pm:

Ananth,
Your point is the most commonly asked and discussed. Like you said earlier, when these questions are asked, it is a reaction to the current situation.
Each year is considered unique, and said to be "1 in many years". People's memory is short.


But, I felt the need to go a bit in detail, and probe into ananth's point of view.And this is what I saw:


1. Last 5 years trend of Kutch and Saurashtra:  2005, 2006, 2007: Both +ve by 10-20%, 2008: Kutch +10%, Saurashtra +30%. 2009 :Kutch -10%, Saurashtra +10%, 2010: Both +ve by 20-30%.


NE States: 2005, 2006: -30%, 2007:-10%. 2008, 2009:-20/30%, 2010:-15-20%.


The reasons are understood. All systems , UACs and lows from the Bay travel only Westwards and plough thru central India into Gujarat. Hardly a rare system has moved North into Bangladesh and cureve into the NE states. 
Another change these last few years. When we should be seeing 2/3 depressions from the Bay in June and another 2/3 in July, we have UAcs coming, and pouring depression like rains. BUT, these rains somehow do not commence from the states of entry, thatis Orissa or North A.P. They pick up only after the system tracks inland, with the help of Upper Air Circulations at 700 mb and 850 mb. Though UACs have never been un common or rare, these last 2/3 years they have been dominating, which is not common. 


Well, I see some trends taking a particular route , no doubt. And this year too, the same trend seems to be continuing. 
But, it has happened before too. May be a cyclic change . 


Over the years, I have records of Gujarat getting heavy rains many times in the past. Take Bhuj for example...Do you know what is heavest fall there in a 24 hr time frame ? It is 468 mms ! In July 1959. The same year the year's total reached 1311 mms in Bhuj.Nalliya, Kutch had 294 mms in a day on 12 th August 1979 !1959 was harsh on Kutch.Nalliya had total rainfall of 1398 mms.


Why, last year itself, overall ,yes NE states were low on rain, but Cherrapunji received extra heavy rains with 13511 mms.


But, we cannot come to any conclusion now, not in 3/4 years of happening.





Sent by Akshay. Thunderstorm in Nagpur.


http://youtu.be/g6S80L4n7nM




Replies to GW article comments:



Cmdr Potey: Absolutely in line with your views. Of-course we have to preserve our flora and fauna.
We destroy forests and trees mindlessly in the name of development. In the same tune we destroy the Planet's natural minerals and "eat up" our mountains. Why do we forget that we need Nature more than she needs us !
Man's selfish desire, it seems is to occupy this planet alone..and destroy all the other species. But, a few selfish desire more material wealth, which they feel will be their ultimate security..little realising that it is the Universe (Universal Law) that protects you.


Chowdary: Sure..its as always ..Blame it on the Weather.


Neeraj: sure we have data for some 125 years or so. But the GW pundits talking about the last 20-25 years. and, if i remember right, GW theory goes loke this: Britain will warm up to sub-tropical climates, and the tropics will heat up more, desertification on the increase.. Nothing about any region cooling. And of course, the region northern- most, say the GW papers, will heat up to melt the artic ice and drive the polar bears to extinction !!


Nimishbhai:
-1. All facts and figures put by the IPCC have been proved to be false and wrongly interpreted to suit the theory. If you get some time, please go thru vagaries previous series of articles on GW (Dec 2009)..where we had discussed the same points. On the totally wrong IPCC report.
-3. If, erratic weather and super cooling points to GW..then this GW matter is at least 125-150 years old..as some of my illustrations show. I can produce 50 more instances of erratic weahter phenomena in the last 100 years. 
-4.Leading to a greener planet..most welcome..and politically motivated ? You know how much money is budgeted and alloted for GW ..and how its spent and who gets the contracts !UN has worked a budget, allotment of $76 TRILLION for the next 40 years !! Read here for details on this !


Akshay: ok..will wait for your comments. Hope you get some free time soon. 


These are my personal views, and need not tally with else's. actually all are right in their own perspective.


Shall put up Part 2 by Thursday.





Hi Rajesh,
Managed to take this pic, when we had some thunder storm, here in Delhi...
Cheers
Rajiv



Mahableshwar pics and videos..for those interested..20th June-24th June





















Amboli.



Leech attack








Posted on 31st May:
A beautiful Monsoon Indicator clicked by Shiraz. 
This is a pre monsoon indicator , clicked by Shiraz in his hotel in Mahableshwar.
Issac identified it as an Golden Emperor Moth.


and, during my recent trip to Bandhavgarh, I clicked this Big Fellow walking towards our Jeep.








Posted on 18th May:


Very Interesting news from Ananth.

Hi Rajesh,
Today i came across this interesting set of pictures from reuters , 'Ghost trees of Pakistan". Have a look, Please share it with others if you find it intriguing and worthwhile.
Check here.



x-----------------------------------x-----------------------------x-------------------------x


Posted on 13th May:


Neearj shares these very interested articles from Nepal.


Neeraj, Vagaries had forecasted heavy showers for E.Nepal and Sikkim for Wed thru Sat..posted on 10th.



-------------------x------------------------------------x===================


Explanation of Radar Working...
I am not too well versed with this , and myself need to be educated in this line. But I have taken a clue to this from Akshay's blog at http://metdweather.blogspot.com/.. More explainations are also provided at the IMD Radar Page in FAQ.
 reproduce what Akshay explains:
Doppler Products shown by IMD are:
1] Maximum Reflectivity ( Z)
2] Plan Position Indicator
3] Volume Velocity Processing
4] Plan Position Indicator
5] Surface Rainfall Intensity
6] Precipitation Accumulation


1] The Maximum Reflectivity product determines the strength of reflection from the clouds
This is an indicator for strength of Thunderstorms .


The Maximum reflectivity is a classical product to determine the areas in thunderstorms which have potentials for producing Severe weather
It also determines the location where hails are forming and also about the precipitation outlooks
magenta: 65 dBZ (extremely heavy precipitation, possible hail)
red: 52 dBZ
yellow: 36 dBZ
green: 20 dBZ (light precipitation)


2] Plan Position Indicator is a large scale map showing a field view of radius 500km


3] Volume Velocity processing
A very important component of the Radar product.
This plot shows the wind direction and magnitude upto 8kms from the surface
It has a maximum capacity to detect winds upto 30km!


This helps to determine real time winds which helps to forecast cloud movements,winds etc.







Posted on 10th. Feb
Pics from Karachi, after the recent rains. Sent by our regular reader and contributor, Tyrone.








Ananth.

This article basically subsribes to the global warming view. As you know, I am against the so called GW theory. I have always pointed out to the fallacy of this theory, and have penned my thoughts several times, in a series of blogs sometime last year. And again last month I have vehemently written against the hyped up Gw matter.

The monsoon is not at all decreasing in intensity by any chance. Mumbai almost got an all time high rainfall, and so did several places in konkan.
Cherrapunji was at a very high rainfall figure this year, around 12000 mms, if I recall correctly.

Where is GW ? Latest on Vagaries is repeatedly pointing to new low records created in India and Internationally.

The article itself clarifies:
“But there is large uncertainty and spread among the projections made by different models and no clear trend could be made out’”

“The impact of climate change on the seasonal rainfall remains unknown, although the number of Bay of Bengal cyclones has been observed to decrease and that of depressions to increase”

There were NO depressions this year !!  And 2 cyclones !.
These are my personal views.


Pics of Christmas day fog near Karnala..sent by Ashish.


On this foggy Christmas morn.. decided to go to Karnala...and the pea-soup thick fog between Mumbai & Panvel made us abandon the idea..




Photo sent by Tejas of Mumbai lightning on 23rd Nov 2010

61084989@N00/5202013236/ 
"Distant lightning" shot by me looking towards west from borivali


Posted on 22nd. November.
Some interesting lightning hits on a ship in Mumbai harbour on Sunday morning. pics from a reader.





Posted on 13th. November . Feed back from Mohan Krishnan
Rajesh,
    on thursday and friday, on my exiting office from Fort have been observing a wonderful phenomena near Fountain in the evening. Bright eastern sky, due to flouroscent clouds on the eastern horizon
lightening the terra ferma while the western sky relatively dark due to Sun nearly on horizon.  Attaching a picture to give u an idea !!
- Mohan Krishnan


Matheran Posting:
Some pics of the dark clouds building up in Matheran on the 4th/5th.Nov. As mentioned, it rained very heavily on both these days in Matheran. a video (very un proffesional) taken by me from the varandah of the hotel on this link. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pciHwj73yZk
This is real time video, not edited. Please be patient and view the video. No comments -:)










posted on 23rd. October.
.
Pics i took near Indian Institute of Population Studies in deonar on 22nd October at 2pm..it was quite flooded & some portions of the road turned into a river.... Ron






Posted on 30th. September.
Rajesh,

Here's a photo taken from the office window at 6:15 pm on September 30, 2010. The location is Andheri (W), Mumbai
Regards
NT



Posted on Friday, 17th September.
Pics sent by Tyrone,from Karachi. Thanks Tyrone, its never too late !
here are some pics of the last monsoon system that reach Sindh's coasts.  These are pics from my balcony in Karachi".





























Posted on 15th. September:
Sent by Nimish Thaker.
Nimish, Thanks ,and well taken. One of the good ones chosen ! :) Sure chance to enjoy  beauty of monsoons.


In Nimish's Words: "Clicked this photo enroute to Lavasa from Pune on Saturday 11th Sept. 2010. For once the 'beauty' of Indian Monsoon in the western ghats 
This obviously does not qualify as 'severe weather' by any standards and therefore may not qualify to be posted on the blog. But sharing it anyways".