tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post960721862788363252..comments2024-03-28T22:32:17.248+05:30Comments on Vagaries of the Weather ©: Rajeshhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comBlogger21125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-74569721869791492442017-04-12T21:06:16.107+05:302017-04-12T21:06:16.107+05:30Karjat IMD AWS max 42°C today.
Badlapur max temp ...Karjat IMD AWS max 42°C today.<br /><br />Badlapur max temp 41°C with 12% humidity today.<br /><br />Thane max 39.6°C (Vagarian Ameya Swar reports).<br /><br />Deonar max 37.4°C (Vagarian Ronnie Bhaumik reports).<br /><br />Palghar IMD AWS max 36.3°C today.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Abhijit Modakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08373516043657476859noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-12768858883763575532017-04-12T20:52:23.143+05:302017-04-12T20:52:23.143+05:30@ Vinod . Yes just up to 5-7 km inland area from c...@ Vinod . Yes just up to 5-7 km inland area from coastal sea face is under influence of sea breeze when it is weak in nature so beyond that area it is most time hot with calm or in N breeze conditions in summer season. So interior Konkan always record high temp by 4-5c than SCZ reading. Even in Mumbai one can feel hot beyond Ghatkopar while traveling toward Thane. So Kanjurmarg,Bhandup, Mulund also can report 40c but no station from there.. <br /><br />Unfortunately most IMD official stations are limited to just Konkan coast like Dahanu, Santacruz, Colaba, Alibaug, Harnai,Ratnagiri, Vengurla,Panaji.. So all this mentioned station are within 5km range from sea shore .. So interior Konkan heat is remained ignored always !!<br /><br /><br /><br />Only Bhira is single representative from interior Konkan but that too is uncertain as in month will report for just 8-10 days as being part time station of IMD and may be due to improper location setup as media suggest it has pucca surface and is located in Bhira power plant than actual Patnus(Bhira) village so it may be over reporting by to 3-4c higher than actual !Abhijit Modakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08373516043657476859noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-47478420607810075442017-04-12T18:52:02.946+05:302017-04-12T18:52:02.946+05:30Thanks you rajesh sir..The analysis as always easy...Thanks you rajesh sir..The analysis as always easy to understand even for person who does not have any background in meteorology.<br />It seems the interior region is very hot compared to mumbai(santacruz) since last 3 days. Places like Badlapur, karjat,dombivali, even thane.Vinod Desaihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14437335217298178735noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-75960289151636157122017-04-12T14:56:23.047+05:302017-04-12T14:56:23.047+05:30https://www.skymetweather.com/content/weather-news...https://www.skymetweather.com/content/weather-news-and-analysis/cyclonic-circulation-forms-in-bay-of-bengal-maiden-cyclone-of-the-season-in-offing/Karan Kumbharhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07384334105008782220noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-83886126911543314762017-04-12T11:15:36.857+05:302017-04-12T11:15:36.857+05:30Always eagerly looking forward to your detailed an...Always eagerly looking forward to your detailed analysis of the current monsoon parameters. Easy to understand and follow! awaiting the next instalment!Atul P Naikhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16721754616918324487noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-17054624774225627082017-04-11T23:10:53.322+05:302017-04-11T23:10:53.322+05:30Badlapur max temp 41.7°C with 10% humidity today !...Badlapur max temp 41.7°C with 10% humidity today !! <br /><br />Bit relief compare to yesterday. But still next 48 hrs are crucial..Abhijit Modakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08373516043657476859noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-80321164915394891332017-04-11T22:25:40.741+05:302017-04-11T22:25:40.741+05:30Thanks sir for detailed analysis in monsoon watch ...Thanks sir for detailed analysis in monsoon watch 1. Hope this year monsoon both SWM And NEM are good and remove drought like situations of south. thanks Sanjeev Gokhale Mulund Mumbai sanjeev Gokhalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13594730464927361040noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-72269210756732412412017-04-11T21:38:41.968+05:302017-04-11T21:38:41.968+05:30
Drought situation worsens over Southern India. Ma...<br />Drought situation worsens over Southern India. Maybe advance warning for 2017 SWM will help for government to wake up? Will it drought again or normal? We understand it is highly complex to predict but maybe models should improve for advance drought forecasts.<br /><br />http://bangaloremirror.indiatimes.com/bangalore/others/Its-time-to-pray-Unprecedented-drought-turns-out-to-be-much-worse-than-expected/articleshow/58117498.cms<br />ssethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06630570720915417629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-78421284528162936192017-04-11T21:24:20.212+05:302017-04-11T21:24:20.212+05:30@ Rohit - noted your replies and thanks a ton for ...@ Rohit - noted your replies and thanks a ton for inviting attention.NilaY Wankawalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01044520060781153252noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-2275509434553521502017-04-11T21:06:27.873+05:302017-04-11T21:06:27.873+05:30Today's skymet weather forecast mentioned a cy...Today's skymet weather forecast mentioned a cyclonic circulation over Andaman sea with potential for development into cyclone. Hopefully this satisfies one of the conditions of MW series.Karan Kumbharhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07384334105008782220noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-5446862407209095782017-04-11T20:20:01.593+05:302017-04-11T20:20:01.593+05:30Wonderful analysis as always..cheers to MWS Wonderful analysis as always..cheers to MWS Rohit Aroskarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17453048539235982867noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-47254662327381728282017-04-11T20:19:01.981+05:302017-04-11T20:19:01.981+05:30Nilay..the straight line distance between khar wes...Nilay..the straight line distance between khar west nd scz observatory is 4 to 5 kmsRohit Aroskarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17453048539235982867noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-44313210608425329742017-04-11T10:50:34.368+05:302017-04-11T10:50:34.368+05:30Credit Australian government Bureau of meteorology...Credit Australian government Bureau of meteorology. <br /><br />Latest ENSO Wrap-Up issued 11 April 2017<br /><br />The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summaryare now available on the Bureau's website.<br /><br /> El Niño WATCH continues; eastern tropical Pacific waters warm<br />The tropical Pacific remains neutral with respect to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, there are signs that El Niño may develop in 2017, with the Bureau's ENSO Outlook status at El Niño WATCH. El Niño WATCH means there is around a 50% chance of El Niño developing in 2017, which is approximately twice the normal likelihood.<br /><br />Sea surface temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean have warmed, with the warmth progressively spreading westwards since the start of the year. Additionally, waters in the eastern Pacific subsurface have also warmed over the past few weeks. Waters near the South American coastline near Peru remain warmer than average, which has contributed towards heavy rains and flooding in parts of South America.<br /> <br />The pattern of very warm ocean conditions in the far eastern Pacific but neutral conditions overall is unusual. International climate models suggest the steady warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to continue in the coming months. Seven of eight models indicate that sea surface temperatures will exceed El Niño thresholds during the second half of 2017. However, some caution should be exercised as models have lower accuracy at this time of year, and there remains a significant spread in possible forecast outcomes.<br /><br />El Niño is often, but not always, associated with below average winter–spring rainfall over eastern Australia and warmer than average winter–spring maximum temperatures over the southern half of Australia. For example, of the 27 El Niño events since 1900, 18 have resulted in widespread dry conditions for Australia.<br /><br />The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has little influence on Australia from December to April. Current outlooks suggest the IOD is likely to remain neutral at least through to the end of winter.<br /><br />Next update expected on 26 April 2017<br /><br />NilaY Wankawalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01044520060781153252noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-74193323881376803032017-04-11T06:53:40.974+05:302017-04-11T06:53:40.974+05:30Wonderful analysis as ever been always sir. Your M...Wonderful analysis as ever been always sir. Your MW series all awaits very eagerly and enthusiasm prevails over revealing and releasing the same. With first part the monsoon season 2017 getting published, curtain has been raised for the entire show to follow up with forecasting vis a Vis performance.NilaY Wankawalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01044520060781153252noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-49304459083949272732017-04-11T02:38:00.883+05:302017-04-11T02:38:00.883+05:30Thanks for the detailed post as usual Sir, look fo...Thanks for the detailed post as usual Sir, look forward to the second in the series when we could possibly have better clarity. Looking at long term OLR charts it appears we could see a weak onset for the monsoon though its too early to say as things can evolve in the days to come. Some models indicating a weak disturbance evolving in Central Bay a few days from now though am not sure if it would work as the trigger for the change into Westerlies.Srikanthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11106019154470913453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-56467908997950367852017-04-11T00:21:35.392+05:302017-04-11T00:21:35.392+05:30Nice explanation sir jee.
Hope things get positive...Nice explanation sir jee.<br />Hope things get positive for monsoon as days progressAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02323599102581673299noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-41088898196388764122017-04-11T00:15:37.582+05:302017-04-11T00:15:37.582+05:30As usual it's just an amazing experience to wa...As usual it's just an amazing experience to watch monsoon unfolding with Vagaries here :)<br />Very nice detailed analysis covering all main parameters. <br /><br /><br />Heat wave once again grips North Interior Konkan !!<br /><br />Some max temp from the region for today(10-04-2017):<br /><br />Karjat IMD AWS max 43.5°C <br /><br />Badlapur max temp 43°C with 10% humidity(personal reading) !🔥<br /><br />With this broken recent made all time record of 42.8c on 27 March 2017. And mine device recorded first ever 43c since started tracking the temp personally from 2012 onward !!<br /><br />Thane max 41.4°C (Vagarian Ameya Swar reports)<br /><br />Palghar IMD AWS max 40.4°CAbhijit Modakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08373516043657476859noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-81124518729513612782017-04-10T22:54:58.454+05:302017-04-10T22:54:58.454+05:30Thanks Ashokbhai...corrected the Months.
Shreyas:...Thanks Ashokbhai...corrected the Months.<br /><br />Shreyas: Eurasion Snow cover does effect the Monsoon, especially the March/April cover. It was originally taken as one of the parameters.Rajeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-45883949698259876552017-04-10T22:48:39.062+05:302017-04-10T22:48:39.062+05:30Nice explanation as always :) . Thanks sir. Was ea...Nice explanation as always :) . Thanks sir. Was eagerly waiting for mw series.Atulhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08917549740899173606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-21130823593176834062017-04-10T22:46:11.882+05:302017-04-10T22:46:11.882+05:30Very good analysis of the main parameters. Always ...Very good analysis of the main parameters. Always like to follow the MW series here. Also it remains to be seen if Eurasian snow cover or IOD can impact the monsoon this time or not.Shreyas Dhavalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01664184782958774453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-78568595303031821482017-04-10T22:41:27.336+05:302017-04-10T22:41:27.336+05:30Rajeshbhai,
The updated (February-March) MEI is s...Rajeshbhai,<br /><br />The updated (February-March) MEI is steady at -.056 (in December-January was -0.055),<br /><br />should read as<br /><br />The updated (January-February) MEI is steady at -.056 (in December-January was -0.055),<br /><br />Second point to note is ONI latest is -0.2.ugaaphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06077634022571591004noreply@blogger.com