tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post8877681300009958689..comments2024-03-28T14:59:35.045+05:30Comments on Vagaries of the Weather ©: Rajeshhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-53136507351900726642015-06-18T00:17:22.028+05:302015-06-18T00:17:22.028+05:30Gaurav Raninga...you have mentioned of erratic rai...Gaurav Raninga...you have mentioned of erratic rains in 2013 in Gujarat...and wondered why >See 29th Sept post for rain amounts and 30th Sept post for an explanation in our meeting then..see here<br />http://www.vagaries.in/2013_09_01_archive.htmlRajeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-18511913658746228132015-06-17T23:24:10.968+05:302015-06-17T23:24:10.968+05:30Kaneyan: Thanks for the Update and informationKaneyan: Thanks for the Update and informationRajeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-73356130899502662052015-06-17T23:22:53.130+05:302015-06-17T23:22:53.130+05:30Atul: Ghats rains increasing this weekend...from F...Atul: Ghats rains increasing this weekend...from Friday...see updated blogRajeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-8382064716876396662015-06-17T19:52:48.963+05:302015-06-17T19:52:48.963+05:30Sir,
When can we expect rains in ghat section? ...Sir,<br /> When can we expect rains in ghat section? It's depressing :(<br /><br />Thanks,<br />AtulAtulhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08917549740899173606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-60473052853965912872015-06-17T17:43:34.504+05:302015-06-17T17:43:34.504+05:30Rains in saurashtra is always subject to research....Rains in saurashtra is always subject to research. ...in last ten years there was several occasions in which many centres shown extraordinary results. ...it's not new new for saurashtra if some centre receive 50% or more than it of its annual average within 24 hours. ....some years ago khambhaliya and jamnagar Received 2500+mms during monsoon which is almost 5 times of their annual average ..Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12344590179392211326noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-42790244392839741452015-06-17T10:56:07.382+05:302015-06-17T10:56:07.382+05:30Guess when low forms over the bay, excess rains ov...Guess when low forms over the bay, excess rains over GUJ Saurashtra may decrease...but September 2013 may haunt again???ssethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06630570720915417629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-50119100034352389102015-06-17T10:39:28.179+05:302015-06-17T10:39:28.179+05:30For information
1hpa = 1mb (however hpa is widely ...For information<br />1hpa = 1mb (however hpa is widely accepted SI unit)ssethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06630570720915417629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-15140172074488959312015-06-17T10:16:15.241+05:302015-06-17T10:16:15.241+05:30For past 5 years Gujarat has shown trends of displ...For past 5 years Gujarat has shown trends of displaying last moment surprises... (a) 2013 september extreme rains 300-500mm in 24hrs for 3-4 days guess 2013 September phenomenon is reverse of 2015 june present condition <br />(b) 2014 june Nanuk Arabian sea cyclone.. many parts of Gir forest region indeed received more than 300mm of rain in 24hrs <br />Regarding essence of 700hpa -- took from wiki..<br />Maps using isotherms show temperature gradients, which can help locate weather fronts. Isotach maps, analyzing lines of equal wind speed, on a constant pressure surface of 300 mb or 250 mb show where the jet stream is located. Use of constant pressure charts at the 700 and 500 hPa level can indicate tropical cyclone motion. Is this reason for popularity 700hpa rather than 500hpa - 700hpa is closer to earth surface than 500hpa.ssethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06630570720915417629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-10521415167604624252015-06-17T09:19:52.598+05:302015-06-17T09:19:52.598+05:30@ Kaneyan: Thanks for adding more points for clari...@ Kaneyan: Thanks for adding more points for clarification. But I would say Rest of India and saurashtra pre monsoon rain are of different timings <br /><br />Rest of India had good rains from March to May as there were systems present like WD dipping south till Rajasthan. Then good LWD for S. Interior Peninsula also Low/UAC off Kerala coast in May end so overall due to weather systems present we can know the excess rain fall had occurred. <br /><br />But Saurashtra rain were sudden without any storng system also non of models predicted such heavy even though it was isolated to 2-3 district. So was more curious on it. Also timing of Saurashtra rain was when monsoon was on door with just few 100kms as NLM was present till 20-21 N latitude that is of near Gujarat only. So comparing Rest of India Apr-May rain with this Saurashtra mid June is not comparable I think Abhijit Modakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08373516043657476859noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-46140471641967779812015-06-17T08:49:56.502+05:302015-06-17T08:49:56.502+05:30Sir, I was too asked the same that there are any r...Sir, I was too asked the same that there are any reason behind this rain or it's just 'aasmani sultani'? Now I think 700hpa became well organised and set to it's normal with proper onset of monsoon then rain in SE saurashtra will decrease and now SW saurashtra starts to get their typical monsoon rain. ...Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12344590179392211326noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-68706917873292749722015-06-17T07:04:46.065+05:302015-06-17T07:04:46.065+05:30Dear Abhijit,
Pre monsoon rains are EXCESS [or ...Dear Abhijit,<br /> Pre monsoon rains are EXCESS [or ABNORMAL]not only in Saurashtra but to large extend it is excess at many parts of the country. There has been some correlation with this excess pre monsoon rain and SWM for the entire country. that is SWM will be deficient in many parts of the country. The following reasons may be attributed for this:<br /><br />(a) The relatively weaker in strength of Mascarene High and its ensembles.<br /><br />(b) The tilly-tallying nature i.e west-east drift from its expected NORMAL position.<br /><br />(c) The "sea - change" that occurred in Pacific and Indian Ocean and its impact over atmosphere over there. That is the ocean-atmosphere reaction plays vital role.<br /><br />(d) When the SWM strength in lower level troposphere is weak formation of UAC helps to bring rainfall but it is amount will be less. This is an alternative mechanism and moisture absorption at local sea [with lesser area] will be converted into rain. <br /><br />(e) This can be evident {or widely generalised} of frequent appearance of optical phenomenon like "CARONA" in the sky. Where as during good SWM period more "HALO" will be seen generally.Kaneyenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06817360454417026229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-72057265668300967982015-06-16T23:16:37.384+05:302015-06-16T23:16:37.384+05:30Abhijit: good question showing enthusiasm...was wa...Abhijit: good question showing enthusiasm...was waiting for such a question...now, you will find your own answer ...do you see a trough at 700 mb level, remnant from Ashoba ?This has embedded as a low in the weak off trough Northern part at 700 level...and got concentrated rains .. Coastal South Gujarat and parts of Saurashtra...only 2 districts..restricted to the well fed regions affected by UAC...Now you tell me, how long these rains will last there ?Rajeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-16103700636747892532015-06-16T22:14:55.063+05:302015-06-16T22:14:55.063+05:30Rajesh Sir : What may be the reason of such abnorm...Rajesh Sir : What may be the reason of such abnormal heavy pre monsoon rain activity for Suarashtra ?? <br />As this year, Bay branch is still weak so East India onl waiting from long for there SWM arrival in Bhubaneshwar-Kolkata belt . So No Bay low to help Gujarat rain. Even Arabian sea don't have any UAC or MTC's off Gujarat/Saurashtra coast !! So how can only off shore trough till Gulf of Khambat can pour such heavy there ?? Also we see weak SWM onset as 700 hpa not properly organised and winds were weak !! So what condition helped for so much rain and that too without of "SWM onset" there ??Abhijit Modakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08373516043657476859noreply@blogger.com