tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post880028645696986403..comments2024-03-28T22:32:17.248+05:30Comments on Vagaries of the Weather ©: Rajeshhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-46301959535819781592018-06-21T11:38:53.898+05:302018-06-21T11:38:53.898+05:30I wonder why Chennai is so hot and rain starved. I...I wonder why Chennai is so hot and rain starved. I do know Chennai doesn't have a monsoon per se, only TS' masquerading as rain. And today there were Mammatus type of formations which resulted in nothing and dissipated quickly.Ashhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04384405458738717509noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-3896868795673440312018-06-19T11:53:51.582+05:302018-06-19T11:53:51.582+05:30CREDIT AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEREOLOGY...CREDIT AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEREOLOGY<br /><br />Issued 19 June 2018<br /> <br />The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.<br /> <br />El Niño WATCH; chance of El Niño in spring increases to 50%<br /> <br />ENSO Outlook<br />Our ENSO Outlook provides<br />up-to-date information on the likelihood of an El Niño or La Niña developing.<br /> ENSO Outlook dial showing El Niño WATCH status<br />Current status: El Niño WATCH<br />The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. However, latest model outlooks and recent warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean indicates that the chance of El Niño forming in spring has increased. As a result, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook status has moved to El Niño WATCH. El Niño WATCH means the likelihood of El Niño forming in 2018 is approximately 50%; double the normal chance.<br /> <br />Oceanic indicators are currently neutral—neither El Niño nor La Niña—but show some signs of potential El Niño development. Sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean, though currently neutral, have been slowly warming since April. Importantly, waters below the surface of the tropical Pacific are now warmer than average—a common precursor to El Niño.<br /> <br />The majority of international climate models surveyed by the Bureau forecast the tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to warm but stay in the neutral range during July and August. However, five of eight models indicate the ocean warmth is likely to reach El Niño thresholds in the southern hemisphere spring, while a sixth model falls just short.<br /> <br />During El Niño, rainfall in eastern Australian is typically below average during winter and spring. A neutral ENSO phase has little effect on Australian climate.<br /> <br />The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral. Five of six climate models indicate the IOD is likely to remain neutral in the coming months, and one model suggests a positive IOD. <br />More information<br /><br />Media enquiries: (03) 9669 4057 media@bom.gov.au<br /> <br />Next update expected on 3 July 2018NilaY Wankawalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01044520060781153252noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-793515568689733072018-06-18T19:56:21.845+05:302018-06-18T19:56:21.845+05:30@ Abizer. Nagothane rainfall not available yet !
...@ Abizer. Nagothane rainfall not available yet ! <br /><br />Pen & Shrivardhan 130 mm , Tala 129 mms & nearby Roha received 125 mms ending 8.30am today.<br />Abhijit Modakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08373516043657476859noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-87604377330430244672018-06-18T14:26:54.118+05:302018-06-18T14:26:54.118+05:30Abizer: Yes, we were expecting heavy rains in Raig...Abizer: Yes, we were expecting heavy rains in Raigadh District sat/sun...will give the amount soonRajeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-5325947973979957792018-06-18T06:51:18.392+05:302018-06-18T06:51:18.392+05:30Rajesh sir,in Nagothane its raining non stop since...Rajesh sir,in Nagothane its raining non stop since yesterday afternoon.....can any vagarian give the rains amount for nagothane?Abizer kachwalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04042135659315600211noreply@blogger.com