tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post8459258105977008273..comments2024-03-28T14:59:35.045+05:30Comments on Vagaries of the Weather ©: Rajeshhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-85543912511111859102020-04-01T15:52:39.983+05:302020-04-01T15:52:39.983+05:30This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Shree Lekhahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10408263040760617842noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-29586888844163755272017-12-05T10:41:29.184+05:302017-12-05T10:41:29.184+05:30Complete dark Navi Mumbai -torrential storm in pl...Complete dark Navi Mumbai -torrential storm in place!ssethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06630570720915417629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-34785047433438850692017-12-05T09:47:08.822+05:302017-12-05T09:47:08.822+05:30Credit Australian government bureau of meteorology...Credit Australian government bureau of meteorology <br /><br />Issued 5 December 2017<br /><br />The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.<br /><br />La Niña established in tropical Pacific<br /><br />ENSO Outlook<br /><br />Our ENSO Outlook provides<br />up-to-date information on the likelihood of an El Niño or La Niña developing.<br /><br />Current status: LA NIÑA<br /><br />The Bureau’s ENSO Outlook has been raised to LA NIÑA, indicating that the tropical Pacific has reached La Niña levels. Climate models suggest this La Niña will be weak and short-lived, persisting until early southern autumn 2018.<br /> <br />Signs of La Niña in the equatorial Pacific have increased during spring. The central to eastern tropical Pacific Ocean has cooled steadily since late winter, and is now at La Niña thresholds (0.8 °C below average). Atmospheric indicators, including the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds and cloud patterns, also show clear La Niña signals.<br /> <br />In order for 2017–18 to be classed as a La Niña year, the event needs to last for at least 3 months. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest that while this event is likely to persist over the southern summer, it will be weaker than the strong La Nina of 2010–12.<br /> <br />La Niña typically brings above-average rainfall to eastern Australia during late spring and summer. However, sea surface temperature patterns in the Indian Ocean and closer to Australia are not typical of a La Niña event, reducing the likelihood of widespread above-average summer rainfall. La Niña can also increase the chance of prolonged warm spells for southeast Australia.<br /> <br />The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. IOD events are typically unable to form between December and April.<br /><br />Next update expected on 19 December 2017NilaY Wankawalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01044520060781153252noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-18046664586867847852017-12-05T07:51:11.537+05:302017-12-05T07:51:11.537+05:30Rajesh, this Ockhi is incredible. Against all odds...Rajesh, this Ockhi is incredible. Against all odds it is fighting dry cold air and still coming over to make a landfall as a weak depression. Truly a Vagary of Weather indeed. <br /><br />Looks like Mumbai is developing 2 monsoons now : SWM and NEM !!! <br /><br />Just shows how unpredictable Nature could and we are just a speck in front of it. Always a humbling experience. But hope that it does not affect people or property much more .<br /><br />SureshUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18428713258021417931noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-8587367006310780232017-12-05T07:41:58.914+05:302017-12-05T07:41:58.914+05:30MAHA declares schools close.... some models excpet...MAHA declares schools close.... some models excpet 150-200mm of rain for Mumbai....<br />Fun part is "NEM vigourous over MAHA/Mumbai/GUJ" supposed to be for TN/SAP...<br />Horizontal extended coast line of GUJ flavors all lows/cyclones.<br /><br />ssethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06630570720915417629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-58239401784344929872017-12-05T07:30:38.977+05:302017-12-05T07:30:38.977+05:30As vagaries forecast on BB-19 - hope this happens ...As vagaries forecast on BB-19 - hope this happens with good rains for Rayalseema/SAP/interiors TN before NEM season ends....<br />Heavy rains in belapur/navi mumbai - looks like july/aug!ssethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06630570720915417629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-883291237704017062017-12-05T07:17:04.095+05:302017-12-05T07:17:04.095+05:30Sir, heavy rains now in Goregaon!Sir, heavy rains now in Goregaon!Cumulus arjunhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11068570159021555200noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-39194510922291926292017-12-04T21:33:16.006+05:302017-12-04T21:33:16.006+05:30Navi Mumbai - heavy rains! Hardly a month has pass...Navi Mumbai - heavy rains! Hardly a month has passed with great difficulty SWM with excess rains stopped over GUJ/MAHA. And now GUJ/MAHA is getting share of NEM also. Look like entire SAP (Rayalseema,chitoor,Ananthapur - will end with serious drought) - same with Sri Lanka, TN interiors. Position, topology of GUJ is so good it is like extended hands - receives AS lows, Bay lows at receiving end. ssethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06630570720915417629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-84873963693656684772017-12-04T21:13:41.667+05:302017-12-04T21:13:41.667+05:30we already got over 10mm rains in many parts. time...we already got over 10mm rains in many parts. time to update forecast?SVThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09536084821428605284noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-41728043176259932492017-12-04T20:11:22.003+05:302017-12-04T20:11:22.003+05:30Rains upto 10 mms reported at Mumbai after duskRains upto 10 mms reported at Mumbai after duskRohit Aroskarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17453048539235982867noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-33860202441584219482017-12-04T18:30:13.519+05:302017-12-04T18:30:13.519+05:30As forecasted monday evening and it has started ra...As forecasted monday evening and it has started raining here @ khar west mumbai started arrd 6 20 pm.NilaY Wankawalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01044520060781153252noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-6153220398930635142017-12-04T07:11:10.872+05:302017-12-04T07:11:10.872+05:30Rajesh sor,Nagothane would witness how much rains?...Rajesh sor,Nagothane would witness how much rains?Abizer kachwalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04042135659315600211noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-64609303649355636692017-12-04T07:00:17.219+05:302017-12-04T07:00:17.219+05:30MAHA/GUJ has received rains every month since may ...MAHA/GUJ has received rains every month since may 2017. Guess now we have December rains after length and excess SWM !ssethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06630570720915417629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-16237967582718726902017-12-04T00:28:00.772+05:302017-12-04T00:28:00.772+05:30"Likely to strike land as a Low between Dahan... "Likely to strike land as a Low between Dahanu and Surat coast by Tuesday 5th."<br />Only few days back, knowing this weakening trend, I had mentioned "if it strikes land". Rajeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.com