tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post8081510040108079192..comments2024-03-28T22:32:17.248+05:30Comments on Vagaries of the Weather ©: Rajeshhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-38675332978492592872018-10-10T19:25:55.366+05:302018-10-10T19:25:55.366+05:30This comment has been removed by the author.ssethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06630570720915417629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-84888192936050775452018-10-09T13:11:21.689+05:302018-10-09T13:11:21.689+05:30@Vinod Desai, I think what is really making things...@Vinod Desai, I think what is really making things miserable in Mumbai is the very high levels of Humidity, even though the Monsoon has withdrawn couple of days back, the humidity levels continue to be very high. I think the humidity continues to be high due to Cyclone Luban which is throwing moisture over the coastal areas.Nimish Thakerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00119654323581646408noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-68794397265588157572018-10-09T11:17:49.811+05:302018-10-09T11:17:49.811+05:30Sorry readers for deviating from the main post
C...Sorry readers for deviating from the main post <br /><br />Credit Australian government bureau of meteorology <br /><br />ENSO wrap up<br /><br />Issued 9 October 2018<br /> <br />The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.<br /> <br />El Niño ALERT; positive Indian Ocean Dipole likely underway<br /> <br />ENSO Outlook<br /> <br />Our ENSO Outlook provides up-to-date information on the likelihood of an El Niño or La Niña developing.<br /> <br />ENSO Outlook dial showing El Niño ALERT status<br /> <br /> <br /> <br />The Bureau's ENSO Outlook has been raised to El Niño ALERT. This means there is approximately a 70% chance of El Niño occurring in 2018 – around triple the normal likelihood. Similarly, in the Indian Ocean, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may have started.<br /> <br />When combined, these two events in spring increase the possibility of a dry and warm end to the year. It also raises the risk of heatwaves and bushfire weather in the south, but reduces the risk of tropical cyclone activity in the north.<br /> <br />The tropical Pacific Ocean has warmed in recent weeks due to weakening of the trade winds, while the Southern Oscillation Index has fallen to typical El Niño levels. Models suggest further warming of the Pacific is likely. Four of eight models predict El Niño thresholds will likely be exceeded in the coming months, with another two falling just short.<br /> <br />In the Indian Ocean, there are signs that a positive IOD is currently underway. The IOD index has exceeded the threshold (+0.4 °C) for the last four weeks. However, these values must persist until November for it to be considered a positive IOD event. Model outlooks suggest positive IOD values are likely to continue through the austral spring, before returning to neutral values in late November to December.<br /> <br />More information<br /><br />Media enquiries: (03) 9669 4057 media@bom.gov.au<br /> <br />Next update expected on 23 October 2018<br /><br />NilaY Wankawalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01044520060781153252noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-15370341786684568552018-10-09T10:03:22.841+05:302018-10-09T10:03:22.841+05:30It is unbearable heat in mumbai. Summer was better...It is unbearable heat in mumbai. Summer was better than this weather. Seems ElNino has taken away all rains and now there will be no winter as well.. even if no ElNino winters are becoming warmer every year.Vinod Desaihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14437335217298178735noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-12772956755433920702018-10-08T22:26:41.327+05:302018-10-08T22:26:41.327+05:30After this western disturbances will start giving ...After this western disturbances will start giving rains to Northern India again problem for NEM onset.ssethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06630570720915417629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-26303487210962070042018-10-08T22:25:59.612+05:302018-10-08T22:25:59.612+05:30Useless rogue Bay and Arabian low pressures which ...Useless rogue Bay and Arabian low pressures which have dismantled North east monsoon... south east india is becoming drier and drier. <br /><br />Below statements from IMD...<br /><br />Due to the above intense systems, the wind regime has changed over the Bay of Bengal and adjoining Sea areas. As a result, the rainfall activity is very likely to decrease over south peninsular India from tomorrow onwards. Hence the commencement of northeast monsoon rainfall over Tamilnadu & Puducherry, Kerala and adjoining areas of Andhra Pradesh & Karnataka is not likely to take place as assessed earlier. Development of favourable conditions for northeast monsoon will be closely monitored and its commencement over Tamilnadu will be assessed after the life cycle of the cyclonic system over the Bay of Bengal.ssethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06630570720915417629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-7899617575224962562018-10-08T21:50:35.802+05:302018-10-08T21:50:35.802+05:30So no cooler day and night for Mumbai...its unbear...So no cooler day and night for Mumbai...its unbearable heat in morning and night in Mumbai KHYATI PANDIThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16209261320698185674noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-58525520761194432862018-10-07T22:27:44.720+05:302018-10-07T22:27:44.720+05:30Vinod Desai: Mumbai will be hot and warm now. Expe...Vinod Desai: Mumbai will be hot and warm now. Expect below 20c in November.North should expect early winters from end October. As soon as these systems make the WD effective.<br /><br />Ravat: No,I dont think any norms changed for NE Monsoon.Rajeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-31246895266277152302018-10-07T19:39:25.083+05:302018-10-07T19:39:25.083+05:30For all bloggers who keep opposing...
https://tr...For all bloggers who keep opposing...<br /><br />https://truthout.org/articles/a-disrupted-climate-means-deadlier-cyclones-in-the-middle-east/<br /><br />Among other causes, one possibility is that the Arabian Sea surface becomes warmer than other seas during this period. Second, due to the interplay of global warming, climate variability and weather changes, the winter northeast monsoon circulation has been weakening over the year<br /><br />Cyclones are uncommon in the Arabian Sea and off the Eastern African Coast, but that is changing, thanks to human-caused climate disruption. Their frequency and strength is increasing dramatically with each passing decade as the atmosphere continues to warm due to human fossil fuel emissions.<br /><br />“One important factor is the wind shear, or the change in direction and speed of the winds from bottom to the top of the atmosphere. Generally, this wind shear is relatively strong in the Arabian Sea compared to the Bay of Bengal. That is, while the winds are generally in the same direction throughout the atmospheric column for Bay of Bengal, they are in the opposite direction for the Arabian Sea,” Koll said. “Opposing winds prevent cyclones from developing vertically, which is why the number of cyclones are fewer in the Arabian Sea.”<br /><br />“This is what Murakami says is changing. They show that the wind shear is weakening in the Arabian Sea with increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. They link the change in wind shear to a weakening of the north-easterly monsoon winds,” said Koll. “However, we have not found any evidence for a weakening north-easterly monsoon. Hence, we need more research to connect all the missing links to explain the mechanism behind increasing Arabian Sea cyclones.”<br /><br /><br />This anomalies may impact NEM - lifeline for SE India....<br />soon we see Middle east becoming greener and greener SE India becoming drier and drier...ssethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06630570720915417629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-33515609530575324742018-10-07T18:41:24.063+05:302018-10-07T18:41:24.063+05:30is Imd changing criteria of NEM onset which was no...is Imd changing criteria of NEM onset which was not declared before 10th October?YS rawathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15254543636041328410noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-32249233371614794562018-10-07T14:00:07.103+05:302018-10-07T14:00:07.103+05:30Is Oman a desert or undergoing climate change phen...Is Oman a desert or undergoing climate change phenomenon ? Lucky Oman 2 cyclones to hit in span of 4 months! May 2018 Cyclone Mekunu dumped 600-300mm of rains widespread - multiple days and now cyclone Luban. Should have at-least hit TN/AP. (I am disappointed).ssethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06630570720915417629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-37930905180191186012018-10-07T09:42:47.462+05:302018-10-07T09:42:47.462+05:30Serious impact on North east monsoon - missed 3 lo...Serious impact on North east monsoon - missed 3 lows which are phenomenal rain! During last phase BB-11 went to Orissa,central India,Northern India, AS-3 Oman,GUJ, BB-12 expected again to North east India- Orissa. I feel repetition of 2013 - serious drought hit TN,AP,interiors of KAR - missed all lows during oct-dec. ssethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06630570720915417629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-73415160297535824812018-10-07T09:38:34.811+05:302018-10-07T09:38:34.811+05:30This comment has been removed by the author.ssethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06630570720915417629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-51526714335891623992018-10-07T01:18:10.080+05:302018-10-07T01:18:10.080+05:30Sir what will be winter forecast for north india, ...Sir what will be winter forecast for north india, gujarat and mumbai.<br />Past some years winters are warmer and this year we have El Nino.<br />When would night trmperature start falling in mumbai..Vinod Desaihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14437335217298178735noreply@blogger.com