tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post7639492692161888327..comments2024-03-28T22:32:17.248+05:30Comments on Vagaries of the Weather ©: Rajeshhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-28413081733312130612020-12-08T11:26:02.977+05:302020-12-08T11:26:02.977+05:30Credit Australian Government Bureau of metereology...Credit Australian Government Bureau of metereology latest issued cliamte driver update 08 12 2020<br /><br />Issued 8 December 2020<br /> <br />The latest Climate Driver Update and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.<br /> <br />La Niña continues in the tropical Pacific.<br /><br />Ocean and atmosphere indicators reflect a mature La Niña with little variation over last fortnight. Model outlooks suggest the event will peak at moderate levels during December, returning to a neutral phase during the late summer or autumn.<br /> <br />The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is expected to increase to strong positive values over the coming week. This is driven in part by the La Nina influence, and in part by a stronger than average polar vortex over Antarctica. Positive values are expected at least into early 2021, and typically increase the chance of rainfall in eastern Australia. <br /> <br />The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is relatively weak and is currently over the Maritime Continent (Indonesia). It is forecast to move east and across Australian longitudes over the next fortnight. The MJO, in conjunction with other tropical influences, is looking favourable for monsoon onset and producing above-average rainfall over northern Australia.<br /> <br />Climate change is also influencing the Australian climate. Rainfall across northern Australia during the wet season (October–April) has increased since the late 1990's, with a greater proportion of high intensity short duration rainfall events. <br /> <br />Climate outlooks, which include all climate drivers, indicate rainfall during December 2020 is likely to be above average over most of northern Australia. Rainfall over January to March 2021 is likely to be above average, particularly for eastern Queensland. <br /> <br />More information<br /><br />Media enquiries: (03) 9669 4057 media@bom.gov.au<br /> <br />Next update expected on 22 December 2020<br /> NilaY Wankawalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01044520060781153252noreply@blogger.com