tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post7072092282681462699..comments2024-03-28T22:32:17.248+05:30Comments on Vagaries of the Weather ©: Rajeshhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-20543657397470750072014-09-21T18:05:03.530+05:302014-09-21T18:05:03.530+05:30abizer: I see some thunder shower activity increas...abizer: I see some thunder shower activity increasing from 24th for 4/5 days. Will see showers in the afternoon or evening during the period. Rajeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-63093390038751388252014-09-20T17:50:03.097+05:302014-09-20T17:50:03.097+05:30rajesah sir, there were moderate rains in nagothan...rajesah sir, there were moderate rains in nagothane, near roha [raigad ] for more than 2 hours non stop light and some heavy.. what is your forecast ahead.sir weather from 22nd to 28th in this area. thanks in advance sir.kindly inform me about that.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00224077311647775592noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-23517617750619698462014-09-20T12:02:20.646+05:302014-09-20T12:02:20.646+05:30Raining very heavy and non-stop in Navi Mumbai - i...Raining very heavy and non-stop in Navi Mumbai - inline with vagaries forecast yesterday... hope dreadful rains are not back again...<br />But Bangalore no rain - over last few years rains are continuously eluding BANG - massive climate change - still at 250-300mm since june.<br />ssethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06630570720915417629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-73397997735546554082014-09-19T22:41:55.157+05:302014-09-19T22:41:55.157+05:30sset: Good follow up ! yes, I am observing the 200...sset: Good follow up ! yes, I am observing the 200 jets now, and also the anticyclone at the 850 level.<br />200 jet streams are the season changers....read more in the latest posting for a follow up...Rajeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-30917503827545713232014-09-19T21:47:18.432+05:302014-09-19T21:47:18.432+05:30RK Chaudhary: I suppose the WD option would be bet...RK Chaudhary: I suppose the WD option would be better, but, a WD now may not precipitate up to Delhi...<br /><br />The other option will surely bring rains in Gujarat, but not extending further NortwardsRajeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-38338149242171755992014-09-19T21:45:13.674+05:302014-09-19T21:45:13.674+05:30Sharp showers at Vagaries ( Mahalaxmi) from 9 pm ...Sharp showers at Vagaries ( Mahalaxmi) from 9 pm IST..recorded 29 mms ...still raining...Posted Friday 9.45 pm ISTRajeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-1190094536826578312014-09-19T20:36:06.140+05:302014-09-19T20:36:06.140+05:30
If we refer to vagaries withdrawal parameters tak...<br />If we refer to vagaries withdrawal parameters taken from Rajesh sir 2013 august blog..<br />point 2 may not allow NEM to set??<br /><br />Anyway I need to google to understand blogs complex weather terms...<br /><br />-1. Let us initially keep a watch on the 200 hp jet streams. During the monsoon , they are Easterlies approximately below the 30N line.This is the Southern periphery of an anticyclone at 200 hp, with the core between 30N and 35N at 150 hp. Peak winds at core exceed 100 knots. Westerlies are to the North of the Himalayas. <br /><br />Now, when the withdrawal process starts, we may see a deviation, gradually from the Northern regions. The anticyclone in the Northern most regions vanishes, and westerlies start taking over below the 35N.<br /><br />-2. A trough, in the westerlies, in the Afghanistan/ North Kashmir region, would mean the movements of WDs in the upper atmospheres. The frequent movements of these troughs and WDs would hasten a withdrawal. <br /><br />But what we need for the NEM to advance is a prominent anti-cyclone at 500 hpa over the Central Myanmar region. <br /><br />ssethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06630570720915417629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-42281890816914034802014-09-19T19:12:10.798+05:302014-09-19T19:12:10.798+05:30Guess driest spot in India as far as SWM is concer...Guess driest spot in India as far as SWM is concerned is "PAMBAN" - southern most tip of TN - 0mm since june. Next to follow are Thothukudi,Rameshwaram,Coimbatore... < 50mm of rain since june.ssethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06630570720915417629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-12698288705920092062014-09-19T18:00:19.908+05:302014-09-19T18:00:19.908+05:30rajesh sir, great forecast. but sir can you say ab...rajesh sir, great forecast. but sir can you say about the weather on 26th and 27th sep in raigad disrict. kindly sir.please<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00224077311647775592noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-33559033504193054512014-09-19T15:56:28.582+05:302014-09-19T15:56:28.582+05:30Hi,
A low as mentioned by rajesh by sep 23,24 wil...Hi,<br /><br />A low as mentioned by rajesh by sep 23,24 will be instrumental in shaping NE because it is likely to affect TN/AP.<br /><br />I remember in 2005 NE monsoon set in as early as oct 8-9 and we had a tremendous season..<br /><br />Waiting for NE..<br /><br />Regards<br />KrishnaKrishnahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17408522074688801032noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-53541743689144580802014-09-19T13:00:00.335+05:302014-09-19T13:00:00.335+05:30HI,
As rajesh mentioned, this is exactly what we ...HI,<br /><br />As rajesh mentioned, this is exactly what we want for NE monsoon to pick up and be on time.. A low should form around AP/TN coast (15 N Latitude) to pull the NE winds...now a low forming around 23/24 lets see..<br /><br />else any system which forms around orissa durign the fag end of the SW monsoon can only the NE monsoon to a great extent.Krishnahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17408522074688801032noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-17165059863542098982014-09-19T10:34:43.517+05:302014-09-19T10:34:43.517+05:30All are very thankful for Rajesh sir scientific ex...All are very thankful for Rajesh sir scientific explanation. But so many "if" and "probabilities" sounds scary for NEM onset. Last year 26-sept-2013 reversal of SWM happened - monsoon axis went up - low pressure on GUJ/RAJ brought around 1000mm of rain in 4-5days!!. Explanation is in vagaries knowledge repository. If this happens again then almost entire SE India/Sri Lanka will become desert (already in that state now).ssethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06630570720915417629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-245935892628398802014-09-19T10:23:41.953+05:302014-09-19T10:23:41.953+05:30Sir you mention speedy widthrawal of SWM so will b...Sir you mention speedy widthrawal of SWM so will be nothing like last year when it recurved into haryana . This time it may withdraw around normal date in Delhi which is 21 sept. Rawathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10912449083844686623noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-39251936436249026332014-09-19T08:35:34.607+05:302014-09-19T08:35:34.607+05:30Wonderful post RajeshbhaiWonderful post Rajeshbhaiemkayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10678383518576804084noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-88822828426894279072014-09-19T00:29:00.543+05:302014-09-19T00:29:00.543+05:30Rajesh Sir, which scenario of long term forecast, ...Rajesh Sir, which scenario of long term forecast, a or b, could be beneficial for rain in Delhi?<br />SW moisture from Gujarat low or the WD??Rajiv Kumarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03133470781164846907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-42737031507331030532014-09-18T23:00:39.804+05:302014-09-18T23:00:39.804+05:30I feel south india will get rains andhra and karn...I feel south india will get rains andhra and karnataka..swm will withdraw from gujarat by next week end.Vinod Desaihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14437335217298178735noreply@blogger.com