tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post4429940979863024348..comments2024-03-28T22:32:17.248+05:30Comments on Vagaries of the Weather ©: Rajeshhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-68189789561076543322017-11-24T22:59:17.581+05:302017-11-24T22:59:17.581+05:30o@SSET Even punjab,haryana and delhi need WD rains...o@SSET Even punjab,haryana and delhi need WD rains for their winter crops as they didnt have good SWM...WD will impact only if bay system is stronger hopefully it stays with lower intensity..Narayanan chennaihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01062318714588165725noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-37538955015539819332017-11-24T22:10:08.645+05:302017-11-24T22:10:08.645+05:30If rains revive great relief for south TN - Kanaya...If rains revive great relief for south TN - Kanayakumari, Thotakudoi, Ramanathapuram.....ssethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06630570720915417629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-21875060379468129712017-11-24T22:03:23.352+05:302017-11-24T22:03:23.352+05:30All eyes on bay - Will SE India-> TN,Rayalseema...All eyes on bay - Will SE India-> TN,Rayalseema,Anantapur,Chittor receive rain or not? Culprit WD again on 29 Nov. If rains miss SE India again for drought. ssethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06630570720915417629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-58550586066778446022017-11-22T18:46:18.686+05:302017-11-22T18:46:18.686+05:30Thanks a lot rajesh sir for your update on NEM ple...Thanks a lot rajesh sir for your update on NEM please continue posting upcoming events.<br />Many of us feel very confident of rains whenever you post on rainy events for chennai. Narayanan chennaihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01062318714588165725noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-45137756603806413312017-11-22T07:04:11.724+05:302017-11-22T07:04:11.724+05:30Sir, when will be the WD impact North India?Sir, when will be the WD impact North India?Cumulus arjunhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11068570159021555200noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-30988313495315263212017-11-21T23:14:30.234+05:302017-11-21T23:14:30.234+05:30Prabhakaran Subramaniyam: Yes, very little update ...Prabhakaran Subramaniyam: Yes, very little update on NEM...but frankly, I get very little response or feedback from Chennai. A good and prompt feedback and comments would surely encourage me to write more. <br />Anyway, we may see another Low , BB-15 , coming and forming in South/SW Bay around 27th of this month. We will track this, but surely no meaningfull increase or rains in Interior TN till 27th. Later, after 28th, BB-15 may be effective.Rajeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-61800996400737569292017-11-21T19:39:06.481+05:302017-11-21T19:39:06.481+05:30Seems NEM is very weak - next few days moderate ra...Seems NEM is very weak - next few days moderate rain may happen but fear is will TN witness drought like 2016? Only saving grace is 2017 SWM during break period gave thunders for TN interiors..IMD says low formation may happen but always NE movement due to WD is culprit..ssethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06630570720915417629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-58014791958019483262017-11-21T18:41:17.761+05:302017-11-21T18:41:17.761+05:30Yeah sir Mumbai. Thanks for replying and predictin...Yeah sir Mumbai. Thanks for replying and predicting.Cumulus arjunhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11068570159021555200noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-10101639957975389042017-11-21T14:57:22.091+05:302017-11-21T14:57:22.091+05:30Disappointed to see no updates on NEM, especially ...Disappointed to see no updates on NEM, especially for interiors of TN.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02209963741891779465noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-8290051412777727172017-11-21T13:01:01.864+05:302017-11-21T13:01:01.864+05:30Arjun: Where are you referring to ? Mumbai ? Will ...Arjun: Where are you referring to ? Mumbai ? Will see a drop of 2/3c on Thursday morning.Rajeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-25754749185569588122017-11-21T09:47:45.535+05:302017-11-21T09:47:45.535+05:30Credit Australian government bureau of meteorology...Credit Australian government bureau of meteorology <br /><br />Issued 21 November 2017<br /><br /> The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.<br /><br />La Niña ALERT: Tropical Pacific near La Niña thresholds<br /><br />ENSO Outlook<br /><br />Our ENSO Outlook provides<br />up-to-date information on the likelihood of an El Niño or La Niña developing.<br /><br />Current status: La Niña ALERT<br /><br />The tropical Pacific is approaching La Niña thresholds. If the current progression continues, and thresholds are exceeded for a sustained period, 2017–18 will be considered a La Niña event. As a result, the Bureau’s ENSO Outlook has been raised to La Niña ALERT, meaning there is approximately a 70% chance—or triple the normal likelihood—of La Niña occurring. Climate models suggest that any event is likely to be weak and short-lived. This means it is expected to be very different to the strong 2010–12 La Niña.<br /> <br />Oceanic indicators of ENSO show a clear progression towards La Niña. Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have cooled since late winter, and waters beneath the surface remain cooler than average in the eastern Pacific. However, they are currently just shy of La Niña thresholds. Atmospheric indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and trade winds have shown signs of shifting into a La Niña-like state. In order for La Niña to become established, atmospheric and oceanic indicators need to be reinforcing each other, which will strengthen and sustain these changes.<br /> <br />All international climate models suggest further cooling of the tropical Pacific is likely. All models reach La Niña thresholds in December 2017, and most maintain these values until at least February 2018.<br /> <br />La Niña typically brings above average rainfall to eastern Australia during late spring and summer. However, sea surface temperature patterns in the Indian Ocean and closer to Australia are not typical of La Niña, reducing the likelihood of widespread summer rainfall. La Niña can also increase the chance of prolonged warm spells for southeast Australia. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. IOD events are typically unable to form between December and April.<br /><br />Next update expected on 05 December 2017<br /><br />NilaY Wankawalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01044520060781153252noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-48149648683214791952017-11-21T07:11:19.346+05:302017-11-21T07:11:19.346+05:30Can night temperatures decrease from Wednesday? IM...Can night temperatures decrease from Wednesday? IMD predicts so. What' your views sir on that.Cumulus arjunhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11068570159021555200noreply@blogger.com