tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post408540907425312820..comments2024-03-28T22:32:17.248+05:30Comments on Vagaries of the Weather ©: Rajeshhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-18482469279493780482016-04-12T22:30:59.446+05:302016-04-12T22:30:59.446+05:30Bangalore soon to touch 40c - +5c above normal. La...Bangalore soon to touch 40c - +5c above normal. Lack of Trees prime factor<br /><br />http://www.bangaloremirror.com/bangalore/others/Is-Bengaluru-the-new-Chennai-Avg-temps-have-gone-up-by-5C/articleshow/51785715.cms<br /><br />City is witnessing another problem - GARBAGE BOMB!!ssethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06630570720915417629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-80046781282301142632016-04-12T16:48:08.500+05:302016-04-12T16:48:08.500+05:30IMD HAS RELEASED PRESS RELEASE LRF - 1 and it can...IMD HAS RELEASED PRESS RELEASE LRF - 1 and it can be reached at <br /><br />http://www.imd.gov.in/pages/monsoon_main.php?adta=LRF&adtb=&adtc=&adtd=lrf_1_2016<br /><br />NilaY Wankawalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01044520060781153252noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-90358893763964578682016-04-12T16:40:00.787+05:302016-04-12T16:40:00.787+05:30SOURCE : THE ECONOMIC TIMES
PUBLISHED : 12 Apr, 20...SOURCE : THE ECONOMIC TIMES<br />PUBLISHED : 12 Apr, 2016, 04.07PM IST <br /><br />NEW DELHI: In a major relief for the India's farm sector, India Meteorological Department said the monsoon will be 106% of normal this year. "Monsoon rains will be above long-period average this year and the El Nino conditions will be seen diminishing by June and July," IMD said, adding that it will come out with the second stage of prediction in June.<br /><br />"The monsoon rains could be above average, as the El Nino weather pattern, which can lead to dry spells in South Asia, is gradually fading and giving way to La Nina," an IMD official said.<br /><br />The forecast, which comes after two straight years of drought - is likely to boost the farm sector, which has been weighed down by subdued agriculture output and falling farmers' income.<br /><br />Two back-to-back monsoon failures, 2015 being the hottest year on record, poor post-monsoon rain, an alarming depletion of reservoirs and a heat wave that's forecast to continue and even intensify — all this has changed the country's water economics drastically for farmers, households, businesses and hydropower.<br /><br />While this year's monsoon is expected to be good, officials say it may take up to three months for water scarcity to ease as soil moisture has dropped sharply.<br /><br />Depleted reservoirs will take time to fill up to normal levels after rainfall gathers pace in June and July. <br />NilaY Wankawalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01044520060781153252noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-6420899985590676182016-04-12T16:01:14.061+05:302016-04-12T16:01:14.061+05:30SOURCE INDIAN EXPRESS
Published: 11th April 2016 1...SOURCE INDIAN EXPRESS<br />Published: 11th April 2016 11:05 PM<br /><br />NEW DELHI: With nine states facing drought like situation in the country, the India Meteorology Department (IMD) has decided to advance forecast for the 2016 Southwest Monsoon nearly by two weeks seemingly to build a positive atmosphere as there is a likelihood of country receiving good rainfall this year.<br /><br />The IMD for past few years has been releasing forecast in the fourth week of April and the second one in June. But this time it has been decided to advance it as many parts in the country Bundelkhand and Marathwada reeling under acute shortage of water. Last year, the forecast was released on April 22 and in 2014 it was on April 24 and April 26 in 2013.<br /><br />IMD officials, however, denied advancement of monsoon due to prevailing drought condition in the country. <br /><br />“IMD has come out with monsoon forecast in mid-April earlier also and there is no specific reason. We are ready with the forecast so we are releasing it,” said a senior IMD official.<br /><br />Skymet, a private weather forecasting agency, also released its forecast today predicted an above normal Southwest monsoon this year. The forecast of above normal monsoon would augur well for the agriculture sector which is under stress due to two consecutive years of poor seasonal rainfall.<br /><br />"There is 35 percent chance of above normal seasonal rainfall that is between 105 to 110 percent of Long Period Average (LPA), while there are 30 percent chances of normal (between 96 to 104 per cent of LPA)," the Skymet said in its forecast for this year.<br /><br />Central India and West Coast are expected to receive a good amount of rainfall while Tamil Nadu, Northeast India and South Interior Karnataka may witness less rainfall, it said.NilaY Wankawalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01044520060781153252noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-63637374957570413792016-04-12T10:49:49.201+05:302016-04-12T10:49:49.201+05:30Credit Australian government Bureau of meteorology...Credit Australian government Bureau of meteorology <br /><br />Latest ENSO Wrap-Up issued 12 April 2016 <br /><br />The latest ENSO Wrap-Up, ENSO Outlook and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.<br /><br />El Niño declining; 50% likelihood of La Niña later in 2016<br /><br />While the 2015–16 El Niño remains at weak to moderate levels, recent changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere, combined with current climate model outlooks, suggest the likelihood of La Niña in 2016 has increased to around 50%. As a result, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook status has moved to La Niña WATCH. <br /><br />Temperatures below the Pacific Ocean surface have declined since late 2015, with all but the top 50 metres now cooler than normal. At the sea surface, temperatures have cooled by over 1 °C since their peak, but remain warmer than average and still at El Niño levels. The Southern Oscillation Index and trade winds also show clear signs that El Niño is in decline. <br /><br />International climate models suggest El Niño will continue to weaken during the southern autumn, returning to neutral levels by mid-2016. By spring, five of the eight surveyed models suggest La Niña is likely, with three neutral. ENSO forecasts made at this time of year tend to have lower accuracy than at other times, with a clearer picture to emerge over the coming months. <br /><br />La Niña is often, but not always, associated with above-average winter-spring rainfall over northern, central and eastern Australia. <br />Australia's climate is also being influenced by record warm temperatures in the Indian Ocean. The warmth in the Indian Ocean will likely provide extra moisture for rain systems as they cross Australia during the southern autumn.<br /><br /> ENSO Outlook<br /><br />Our ENSO Outlook provides <br />up-to-date information on the likelihood <br />of an El Niño or La Niña developing.<br /><br /> <br /><br />The status is La Niña WATCH.<br /><br />NilaY Wankawalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01044520060781153252noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-18794025166808642992016-04-11T22:44:48.454+05:302016-04-11T22:44:48.454+05:30Last few days Page views...
India 4548
United Stat...Last few days Page views...<br />India 4548<br />United States 558<br />Pakistan 149<br />Ukraine 142<br />United Arab Emirates 135<br />Singapore 41<br />Russia 35<br />Germany 32<br />United Kingdom 30<br />Australia 21<br />Rajeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-16904307504377109102016-04-11T22:37:16.596+05:302016-04-11T22:37:16.596+05:30sset: Thanks...trying to maximise information and ...sset: Thanks...trying to maximise information and keep it simple (to some extent)Rajeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-67940041773504874032016-04-11T21:00:27.574+05:302016-04-11T21:00:27.574+05:30Thanks Rajesh sir- your MW series educates people ...Thanks Rajesh sir- your MW series educates people all over world unfolds mysteries of monsoon, climate, nature, weather<br />Actually was wondering independent, dependent variables will be useful for modelling - data scientist.<br />Today u have given new information to all - parameter1 is proportional to pre-monsoon + relation between el-nino and WDs. NO other blogs nor climate portals have this information.<br /><br />ssethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06630570720915417629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-47667618686527259922016-04-11T10:36:14.635+05:302016-04-11T10:36:14.635+05:30Sir, wonferful and insightful monsoon watch series...Sir, wonferful and insightful monsoon watch series Rohit Aroskarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17453048539235982867noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-55271931169569485662016-04-10T21:58:17.833+05:302016-04-10T21:58:17.833+05:30zohair/srikanth/abizer: I have mentioned in MW-1, ...zohair/srikanth/abizer: I have mentioned in MW-1, that there are other parameters still to be considered. Since some parameters are to be seen and considered in April, they will come up in subsequent MWs...The developments of Lows and tropical storms in the future will be watched, and no comments can be made on the forecasts 10 days away.<br /><br />Anoop: As the El Nino gradually weakens, the frequency of WDs will reduce.<br /><br />sset: Parameter 1, which was -ve last year, is linked to rainfall in the pre monsoon period.Rajeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-89515109524315050912016-04-10T19:12:26.543+05:302016-04-10T19:12:26.543+05:30From vagaries blogs
parameters as of apr 12 - 2015...From vagaries blogs<br />parameters as of apr 12 - 2015 MW1<br />"Summary for arrival Date: Parameter 1). -ve. Parameter 2). -ve, Parameter 3). Normal. Parameter 4). -ve."<br />Except for first 2 rest seem to be same (for now).<br /><br />In spite of (2nd parameter -> heating of subcontinent was -ve during 2015 still very good pre - monsoon rains all over india + LWD over southern india + it was el-nino year - 2015 monsoon started much earlier)<br /><br />As anoop states - WD seems to be getting prominent every passing yearssethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06630570720915417629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-55718920905952991652016-04-10T12:14:40.684+05:302016-04-10T12:14:40.684+05:30Last two years there has been too many WD in April...Last two years there has been too many WD in April and May.what Will be frequency of WD in this summer.Rawathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10912449083844686623noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-79072220494185944882016-04-10T08:45:39.341+05:302016-04-10T08:45:39.341+05:30Congratulations sir as tidy and as meticulous as e...Congratulations sir as tidy and as meticulous as ever MW1 is here. Releasing one day in advance and 4 days in advance from last year ( I guess it was 12th April 2015) and 4 indicators thats been followed by you in MW 1 this season, position considering those factors we are right now better than what has been the situation last year same time. <br />Let's hope as other factors comes to play their role as time progresses, we have a normal monsoon across the india both in quantum and timeliness. Eagerly awaiting all of us here for follow ups with MW series as factors develops and leads you to forecast the date of arrival and quantum later on.NilaY Wankawalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01044520060781153252noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-1793528610441358082016-04-10T07:58:15.559+05:302016-04-10T07:58:15.559+05:30Rajesh sir,if things and all parameters have not s...Rajesh sir,if things and all parameters have not structured properly,and the cyclone "FANTALA"which is going to be created in S-W indian ocean around the 20th of april may affect monsoon and cause delay in its onset.isnt it?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00224077311647775592noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-32710421078005456942016-04-10T06:21:34.421+05:302016-04-10T06:21:34.421+05:30As usual clear and lucid Sir. I am no expert but a...As usual clear and lucid Sir. I am no expert but as I see it we could possibly see marginal El Nino conditions persist till May end possibly which is likely to impact the onset. As you rightly point out the bigger worry is the subdued Bay that is likely to play a role in the shift of winds. <br /><br />Models indicate a fairly strong Tropical Disturbance in the South Indian Ocean around 20th of April http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016040918/gfs_z850_vort_ind_44.png which is likely to prevent the Cross Equatorial trade winds establishing firmly. This is showing in the charts with winds at 850hPa still Easterlies just north of Equator even as late as 23rd / 24th of April.<br /><br />Early days still will look forward to further analysis from your side Sir. Srikanthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05187934773147266718noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-10460204496523095502016-04-10T00:58:55.192+05:302016-04-10T00:58:55.192+05:30Siru didnt mentioned about 200hpa jet stream,and a...Siru didnt mentioned about 200hpa jet stream,and a forecast shows 999 hpa seasonal low by 20thZohairhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15257726219820360313noreply@blogger.com