tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post3698068594565913580..comments2024-03-18T13:23:09.365+05:30Comments on Vagaries of the Weather ©: Rajeshhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-23687604195804872062022-03-01T12:06:07.677+05:302022-03-01T12:06:07.677+05:30Credit Australian Government Bureau of metereology...Credit Australian Government Bureau of metereology latest issued 01 03 2022<br /><br />Issued 1 March 2022<br /> <br />The latest Climate Driver Update and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.<br /> <br />La Niña to persist until mid-autumn<br /><br />The 2021–22 La Niña is past its peak, with outlooks indicating a return to neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) levels—neither La Niña nor El Niño—during the southern hemisphere autumn. As La Niña weakens, it will continue to influence global weather and climate. <br /><br />Atmospheric and oceanic indicators over the Pacific remain at La Niña levels. Eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures remain cooler than average despite a slow warming of deeper waters. Warming below the surface of the Pacific Ocean typically foreshadows a breakdown in La Niña, and typically occurs in the southern autumn. In the atmosphere, several indicators remain at La Niña levels, including decreased cloudiness along the Date Line, strengthened trade winds in the western Pacific, and a positive Southern Oscillation Index (SOI).<br /><br />La Niña increases the likelihood of tropical cyclones within the Australian region, as well as increasing the chances of above average rainfall across large parts of eastern Australia during autumn. <br /><br />The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) recently weakened while in the Australian region and is now indiscernible. Most climate models suggest the MJO is likely to remain weak for the coming fortnight, meaning it is unlikely to influence tropical climate during this time. <br /><br />The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is neutral and is forecast to remain neutral over the coming three weeks. A neutral SAM has little influence on Australian climate. <br /><br />The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. It typically has little influence on global climate from December to April due to the influence of the monsoon. <br /><br />Climate change continues to influence Australian and global climate. Australia's climate has warmed by around 1.47 °C for the 1910–2020 period. Rainfall across northern Australia during its wet season (October–April) has increased since the late 1990s. In recent decades there has been a trend towards a greater proportion of rainfall from high intensity short duration rainfall events, especially across northern Australia. <br /> <br />More information<br /><br />Media enquiries: (03) 9669 4057 media@bom.gov.au<br /> <br />Next update expected on 15 March 2022NilaY Wankawalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01044520060781153252noreply@blogger.com