tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post1017629694560148320..comments2024-03-28T22:32:17.248+05:30Comments on Vagaries of the Weather ©: Rajeshhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comBlogger25125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-73668000377054471742012-07-21T10:39:41.635+05:302012-07-21T10:39:41.635+05:30If I am correct, Bangalore never received measurab...If I am correct, Bangalore never received measurable NE monsoon for last 5 years- NE monsoon continues to remain weak. <br /><br />Leo Saldana,Suresh Hubbilkar,Yallapa Reddy,Janet Yagneshwaran prominent environmentalist from Bangalore all agree - and we all have continues fight with corrupt BBMP,BDA,BMRCL wrong planning.<br /><br /><br />Anyway as mentioned - let nature take its course- only reason it was repeated here was change in rainfall pattern - partly due to large scale tree felling, no afforestation,lakes dried up for IT / real estate/ malls. <br /><br />Imagine with serious drought Karnataka is facing, karanataka state government is performing pujas worth 20crores!!! Money could have been utlized to help poor people in drought - farmeres, tree plantation. Faith to God is important but not at expense of suffering. Karnataka state MLAS are going abroad with another expenses worth 200crores - when city planning they can learn from NAVI MUMBAI- MAHARASHTRA- GREATEST PLANNED CITIES WITH ENVIRONMENT- CIDCO makes cities.ssethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06630570720915417629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-65648359861311862462012-07-21T00:01:10.756+05:302012-07-21T00:01:10.756+05:30On the dot Rajesh. The central govt asked Maharash...On the dot Rajesh. The central govt asked Maharashtra, Karnataka to go for contingency plans. Why would they do that if they feel optimistic the rains will pick up?<br /><br />Next week the IMD will announce a further downgrade of their forecast, unless the rains from now on is better than those forecasted by them.Rajan Alexanderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07496301416048254072noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-10640516723314019172012-07-20T23:15:30.550+05:302012-07-20T23:15:30.550+05:30Low rainfall conditions are faced by many states o...Low rainfall conditions are faced by many states of India as on today..I have put up the latest map from IMD on current weather Page..whether it is NW India or South India, we need the rains for the betterment of the cities and rural areas...if Blore gets NE Monsoon, Delhi gets the WD rains, and quite substantial at times..anyway, its critical that all regions get rains..The latest deficits are:<br />Delhi -56%, North Karnataka -37%, South Karnataka -50%, B'Lore -38%, Punjab -69% and Saurashtra/Kutch -73%.<br />Rajan: Yes, there is a partial recovery of the monsoon, infact, the june deficit regions ran into excess for the July period...However, I see a back to back low in the last week also, and then for Aug. i have my doubts, as a weak MJO till 12 th Aug will bring High pressure over the Peninsula region...<br />Readers, Please be free to correct or modify my assessment..Rajeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-12271247987775756412012-07-20T23:04:56.928+05:302012-07-20T23:04:56.928+05:30@ annoy Yes, agreed. Of late i see the discussion ...@ annoy Yes, agreed. Of late i see the discussion here getting repetitive. Its my personal opinion that some readers exercise restraint.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-67623262027762769572012-07-20T22:58:12.268+05:302012-07-20T22:58:12.268+05:30Nothing to say much about the weather because from...Nothing to say much about the weather because from the last few days weather is same i.e. partly cloudy weather and no meaningful rain. In the terms of weather July=May.Shitijnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-45646535808523479932012-07-20T22:36:59.613+05:302012-07-20T22:36:59.613+05:30It does look that from now to until end of this mo...It does look that from now to until end of this month, there should be a recovery as all elements of the monsoon apparently in place. During this period, we should probably see the the best rainfall seen for the two months - June-July.<br /><br />But a "real, sustained" agricultural recovery is only possible if the first two weeks of August is at least 90-95% of LPA and are evenly distributed, particularly covering the NW.<br /><br />Does any one have some preliminary inkling how the first two weeks of Aug could pan out and why?<br /><br />The El Nino seems to have petered out for the time being but should re-surface again some time down the lineRajan Alexanderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07496301416048254072noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-29447182746152630862012-07-20T21:25:06.698+05:302012-07-20T21:25:06.698+05:30so the low pressure has indeed formed..imd also pr...so the low pressure has indeed formed..imd also predicting another low in NW bob on 26th...Ronhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15946827452706347910noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-87215037127282750992012-07-20T19:24:52.043+05:302012-07-20T19:24:52.043+05:30I stay in Koramangala, Bangalore and I can say tha...I stay in Koramangala, Bangalore and I can say that no one is going anywhere. Also, as one of the reader from Delhi suggests, Bangalore does recieve rains in NE monsoon too.<br />It's understood that this is a bad year, let's see how things develop further. Continuously saying Bangalore is going to be desert will not make it happen, also I would suggest that writing the same thing again and again is not interesting reading and does not add any value.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-88438297488675726712012-07-20T19:07:46.419+05:302012-07-20T19:07:46.419+05:30@Rajesh, your forecast till Sunday is a bad news f...@Rajesh, your forecast till Sunday is a bad news for Delhi region, it is already facing very dry conditions with temperature around 40. Seems like monsoon has forgotten this region...<br />I hope for a change soon else NW India is heading for drought...RKnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-73275898094068613362012-07-20T17:44:42.135+05:302012-07-20T17:44:42.135+05:30Karnataka Plateau :
1982-2006 sharp decrease.
186...Karnataka Plateau :<br />1982-2006 sharp decrease. <br />1865-1981 increase<br /><br />Sharp decrease is specified only for 24 years. Prior to that 116 years show increase. <br />Unless numbers are available for years from 1982 to 2011 , the observation from the report cannot be validated.<br /><br />Overall its a nice report.Vijayanandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04706324999400934992noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-49679305286254356142012-07-20T17:22:12.811+05:302012-07-20T17:22:12.811+05:30@GSB : Thanks for sharing the doc.
I have not yet...@GSB : Thanks for sharing the doc.<br /><br />I have not yet gone through the entire document. The stats collected for Karnataka plateau is from a very large area.<br />(Bangalore, Shimoga, Tumkur, Mysore, Belgaum, Dharwar, Bellary, Bijapur, Mercara,<br />Chitaldurg, Chikmagalur, Kolar, Mandya, Bidar, Gulbarga, Raichur and Hassan)<br />One can divide it into 3 area. North Part of plateau [Belgaum, Dharwar, Bellary, Bijapur]<br />Malnad Regions [Chikmagalur, Mercara]<br />South Interior Karnataka [Bangalore , Hassan, Mysore]<br />I guess the stats for each of these area would throw up different picture.<br /><br />Its going to take some time to review the document. Its very huge :)Vijayanandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04706324999400934992noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-4568018045832050152012-07-20T14:57:25.241+05:302012-07-20T14:57:25.241+05:30for second weekend in succession IMD sends out a f...for second weekend in succession IMD sends out a false alarm of heavy rains next 48 hours for Mumbai !! feel like telling those guys to look up vagaries before rushing to press.emkayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10678383518576804084noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-72307160300163773002012-07-20T14:20:14.703+05:302012-07-20T14:20:14.703+05:30@Vijayanand , did you see my comment in the previo...@Vijayanand , did you see my comment in the previous section? I have provided a link to the report which says that rainfall has been decreasing over the Karnataka plains in the past fifty years...<br /><br />www.tropmet.res.in/~lip/Publication/RR-pdf/RR-121.pdf<br /><br />Ofcourse the last ten years might have been good but that has to be analysed..GSBnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-67223422467692205302012-07-20T12:43:45.109+05:302012-07-20T12:43:45.109+05:30Thanks to our reader's contributions and updat...Thanks to our reader's contributions and updates, We, at Vagaries, get International and National Weather reports well in advance, and much before it is published on press.<br />What is published in the Mumbai TOI on the 20th, about the drought in the US, was informed to us by Cmdr. Potey on the 19th itself...<br />"A report in The Hindu<br /><br />U.S. facing ‘worst drought’ in 25 years <br /><br />The United States is facing its “worst drought” in 25 years that could fuel food price inflation as crop yields are hit, a top Obama Administration official has warned. <br /><br />As many as 61 per cent of the land mass of the United States is currently being characterised as being impacted by this drought, the Agriculture Secretary, Tom Vilsack, told reporters on Wednesday at a White House news conference, noting that this drought is having an impact in crops. <br /><br />“78 per cent of the corn crop is now in an area designated as drought impacted; 77 per cent of the soybeans that are being grown in this country also impacted. .....potey.<br />Thanks all for updating and keeping Vagaries abreast with the latest !Rajeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-40472613460679667582012-07-20T11:51:09.646+05:302012-07-20T11:51:09.646+05:30Rajeshbhai, out of gloom over interior maharashtra...Rajeshbhai, out of gloom over interior maharashtra & karnataka, there is afterall some cheer for central india i.e. Vidarbha & adjoining MP...........poteyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-35429449669616551492012-07-20T11:34:54.590+05:302012-07-20T11:34:54.590+05:30Everybody here is concerned about BANGALORE,nobody...Everybody here is concerned about BANGALORE,nobody is talking about DELHI which is really facing drought like conditions. BANGALORE can get rain in october,november too but for DELHI its only july,august and half september.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-3528740139395232552012-07-20T11:08:14.626+05:302012-07-20T11:08:14.626+05:30Bangalore if same continues next few years -city m...Bangalore if same continues next few years -city may show towards desertification and mass evacuation of companies and people elsewhere!!!<br />From sset<br /><br />From 1901 to 2000 IMD stats:<br />Bangalore [93 cms] , Pune [70 cms] , and Hyderabd [83 cms]<br />Frankly Bangalore is performing better that other non coastal cities <br />along deccan plateau. As far as recent years performance for bangalore is concerned, I have already shared the data. Infact the average is over 100 cms.Every city has its strength and weakness. Lets be fair in our assessment.Vijayanandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04706324999400934992noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-66590913351332987102012-07-20T10:33:45.888+05:302012-07-20T10:33:45.888+05:30Not sure how we can decide rains are decreasing ov...Not sure how we can decide rains are decreasing over southern peninsula and increasing over Konkan. I yesterday shared Bangalore rains for the last 7 years from 2004. It shows average rains increasing from 97 cms to 114 cms. Last year as we all know the rains in bangalore reached 118 cms. This appears to be a freak year. Guess every city faces it from time to time. <br />Hope IMD comes up with rainfall average for every decade. If we have rainfall data from 2001 to 2010, it would help.Vijayanandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04706324999400934992noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-85311773105962759042012-07-20T10:24:05.292+05:302012-07-20T10:24:05.292+05:30Rajesh,
Excellent analysis. Hope rain increases ov...Rajesh,<br />Excellent analysis. Hope rain increases over karnatka in the coming week.Vijayanandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04706324999400934992noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-39172476319120581892012-07-20T08:46:43.524+05:302012-07-20T08:46:43.524+05:30Rajesh Sir,
Thanks for reading my yesterday's ...Rajesh Sir,<br />Thanks for reading my yesterday's comments and adding Hyderabad to list of forecast.<br />Thank you very much Sir. I will put comments back during weekend with actuals.Joshinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-5169717066574360042012-07-20T08:20:22.610+05:302012-07-20T08:20:22.610+05:30@ Rajesh Sir. Thank you very much for guiding and ...@ Rajesh Sir. Thank you very much for guiding and providing scientific way to observe weather conditions. Last 48hrs we saw heavy rains over Interior North Konkan and also on Western ghats belt. So now Barvi dam must have crossed 1000mm rainfall mark till today 8.30am and may also 40% full now. So please update latest data of Barvi dam too.Abhijit Modakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08373516043657476859noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-86717800726700331892012-07-20T08:14:03.880+05:302012-07-20T08:14:03.880+05:30Rajesh - SW Monsoon was very vigourous over Konkan...Rajesh - SW Monsoon was very vigourous over Konkan on thursday. As per IMD reports all places got rains 150-200mm range. But was very weak over coastal karanataka/kerala.<br /><br />Bangalore if same continues next few years -city may show towards desertification and mass evacuation of companies and people elsewhere!!!<br /><br /><br />Correct GSB - as per previous years aanalysis rains are decreasing over south ppeninsular India but Konkan rains show an increasing trend.<br />(this year okay - some exceptions)ssethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06630570720915417629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-60598399553537590302012-07-19T23:27:43.242+05:302012-07-19T23:27:43.242+05:30Thanks Rajan: Getting a word of praise from Rajan ...Thanks Rajan: Getting a word of praise from Rajan is like achieving a degree in meteorology ! <br /><br />Abhijit: Firstly, have you seen the pressure falling today (on Vagaries'Readings Page). While observing the winds, you must observe all the parameters which could cause the changes..shows the trough deepening, and winds rushing from the west below the axis..see in my forecast i have put more winds in Gujarat..Rajeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-23254610685946346292012-07-19T23:19:27.511+05:302012-07-19T23:19:27.511+05:30Rajesh. Your forecasting skill is getting better a...Rajesh. Your forecasting skill is getting better and better like old wine.<br /><br />Wish IMD could produce such details in the near layman style understanding. <br /><br />I suppose it is because they don't, that people turn to you as an alternative.<br /><br />Keep at itRajan Alexanderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07496301416048254072noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-81090990714833065552012-07-19T22:54:18.378+05:302012-07-19T22:54:18.378+05:30@ Rajesh Sir. I want to know what conditions produ...@ Rajesh Sir. I want to know what conditions produces such strong gusty winds ! Because today full days winds speed are more than normal. Many times only before rains arrival winds blow gusty at times then windy conditions reduces after rain is steady or settled! But today winds are gusty through out day in North Konkan region.Abhijit Modakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08373516043657476859noreply@blogger.com