Monday, January 31, 2011

Approaching W.D. will precipitate rains in Dubai from Tuesday evening thru Thursday. Cooler temperatures in Dubai on 2/3 Feb due to overcast conditions and rains.
Rain/snow spreading to Western Pakistan (Balochistan) and Central regions on Wednesday/ Thursday. Effective rainfall could be possible in Central Sindh. UTH maps indicate scattered rainshowers also possible along Sindh coast on Thursday.
W.D. will be in force in to N.India from Thursday 3rd. Feb.
Flash Snippet:
Severe cyclone Yasi closing in on NE Australia:
Cat: 3 cyclonic srorm Yasi at present 13.4S and 160.6E. Core Pressure at 963 hpa and radius of outermost closed isobar 180 nm [335 km] and outer radius pressure is 1000 hpa. Core winds 150 kmph and Gusts already attained 205 kmph.(Intensifying).

Sunday, January 30, 2011

New Current Weather Page added

Detailed Talk on U.S. Weather by Mark updated on International Page today..

Readers, we are privileged to be in partnership with Mark. Sharing such mature and in depth discussions on U.S. and U.K. meteorology is to our advantage.

W.D. passes away to the East (and weakens).

Sunday (30th. Jan) Precipitation details Gulmarg received 3" of snowfall while Qazigund received 25 mms of snow. Pahalgam and Kokernag had mild snow flakes.

'Due to fresh snowfall and slippery road conditions in Patnitop and Bannihal areas of the highway, the Srinagar-Jammu road has been closed this morning (Sunday),'

Srinagar recorded a low of 1.2c while Gulmarg was the coldest place in the Valley with mercury still settling at -6.3c.

Jammu city recieved 4 mms of rain

Meanwhile, Ladakh region also witnessed some respite from cold with Leh town recording -10c, and Kargil registering -8.8c.

In Delhi, people woke up to a chilly morning with drizzles but a bright sunshine followed in the afternoon.

However, the maximum was 22.4c, a notch below to yesterday''s reading.The city also received 0.5mm of rainfall.

Strong icy wind with sleet lashed higher reaches of H.P., with Kalpa receiving 10 cm of snow. Lahaul and Spiti headquarter Keylong was at -8.9c.

In neighbouring Uttarakhand, the weather was cloudy and cold wind brought down the temperatures. State capital Dehra Dun recorded a low of 7c.

In Pakistan, various parts of Balochistan and Karachi received rain between Friday and Saturday night.In Balochistan, it rained at Quetta, Mastung, Kalat, Khuzdar and other cities.

The rain caused extreme cold weather in some regions.

Saturday, January 29, 2011

Pleasant January Weather: Mumbai Page Update tomorrow nite by 10 p.m.

Space News Page Updated today.

The current W.D. has precipitated scattered in all the regions of Pakistan. Though the rainfall did begin from Friday night, it was generally cloudy and light to medium rains were reported from there. Though Vagaries had anticipated rains in Sindh, Karachi far down in the South had good showers, as reported by Tyrone from there. 9 mms of rain was seen in Karachi today. Various places in Balochistan, Punjab (Pakistan) and the Northern regions had between 2 - 10 mms of rain/snow.

Now, as per the schedule, the system will move into India, and hopefully stick to the rainy schedule "prepared " by Vagaries.-:)

And on the 31st, we see precipitation in Western and Central Nepal. Kathmandu will get more cloudy (low clouds) from tomorrow with upto 5 mms of rain on Monday. High will drop below 20c. Low will be around 3c and then drop from the 1st. to around 1c.

As mentioned earlier, expect a fresh W.D. from the 2nd.(Pakistan) moving into India.

In the South, the Easterly Wave is now active over Sri Lanka. The wave will have to make do with an embedded UAc, now E of Sri Lanka , for further enhancement of rains. Expect some "spill over" from this into South T.N. next 2 days.

For India, the Vagaries forecast map of yesterday should suffice as a valid forecast.

Night temperatures, already having risen marginally, will rise 2/3c in the North and Central regions next 2 nights. Days will be getting cloudy and cool.
Nights will again get cooler, albiet for 2 nights, by 2/3c in the region.

Sandstorm Hits UAE Dubai - 28th Jan 2011

Sandstorm Hits UAE Dubai - 28th Jan 2011

Gulf News

Friday, January 28, 2011

Bianca sat. Image on International Page

NYC Record snowstorm and a rare Thundersnow on Video.

The storm came in two rounds, an initial burst on Wednesday morning and then a heavier round late Wednesday through early Thursday. Unlike previous storms this season, heavy snow also fell in Washington, D.C., and Baltimore in addition to Philadelphia, New York City and southern New England.

As snow began in the D.C. and Baltimore areas late Wednesday, thunder and lightning were common. Snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour made for a nightmare evening commute.

THUNDERSNOW in NYC Snowstorm on 01.26.11


Flash Snippet !

Violent Sandstorm in Dubai on Friday evening. Strong Northerly winds gusted at 87 kmph and sands reduced visibility to 0.2 km. Metal dustbins seen flying around and traffic signals broke down at a few places.Reduced temperature from 26c to 18c in 25 minutes.

Thursday, January 27, 2011

The current W.D. now over Pakistan, and fast approaching NW India.Precipitation will be in pockets over Pakistan's Northern and Sindh regions on Friday, and will move into NW India via the Kashmir/H.P./Punjab route and bring snow in Kashmir and hills of H.P.
Rains in Punjab and Northern Rajasthan will start from 29th. This system is not likely to effect the states east of U.P.

The precipitation will spread into Western and Central regions of Nepal on 30th./31st. Kathmandu can expect some rain on 30th/31st.

Day temperatures will drop by 3/4c in the Northern regions, while the nights w
ill only drop after the passing of the system and the skies clearing.
Drop in day and night temperatures could be expected in Rajasthan, Gujarat, Mah. and M.P. regions from 30th. as the N winds take control.

After 2nd. February, the greens and the blues seen in today's max temperature map will slide Southwards. Nights will slip by 2/3c in the North and by 4/5 c in the central regions i.e. Gujarat, Mah,M.P. This will apply to most cities in Mah. which are seeing minimums of 15
c/16c today.

Rains in Pakistan on Friday will bring light cold conditions in the Northern plains and Sindh. In the Sindh regions, we can expect the nights to drop by 2/3c from today's level. Karachi could drop below 10c again.

Meanwhile, IMD sees a well marked low forming in the Easterly wave in the SE Bay by the 2nd of Februaury. I feel the Easterly wave parameters like SST and depth are not so conducive so as to form a system. Heavy rains, upto 70 mms /day may strike Sri Lanka on the 1st/2nd/3rd , while lesser amounting rains will start along the eastern Coast of Sri Lanka from 27th./28th. of Feb. These rains were also anticipated in vagaries' reports of 23rd.Jan.

Another W.D. is on its way, and will preicipitate in Pakistan's Balochistan, Sindh, Punjab and Northern hills from 3rd. February again. Could be stronger than the current W.D.

So, overall, for the Sub-Continent, wet for the NW till the 5th.and cold weather prevailing into the 1st. week of next month.

Flash Snippet !
1. W.D. approaches N.India, likely to precipitate moderate rain/snow in Kashmir, H.P.and Punjab on 28th.

2. Medium rains/snow over Pakistan, including Sindh, on 27th./ 28th.

3. Back to back another W.D. on stream.

4. Possibility of Well Marked Low, 1006 mb at the lowest, embedded in Easterly Wave to form in SE Bay, around 6N by 1st/2nd Feb, as per IMD.

Detailed precipitation forecast and write up tonite by 10 pm.

Wednesday, January 26, 2011

Snow in Upper Simla:

Simla hills woke up to fresh snow and sleet on republic morning. The town was covered with a thick layer of frost in the morning, as the low dipped to -0.1c, following mild snowfall and sleet last night.
Kufri,Fagu and Narkanda also witnessed mild snowfall.
The entire belt in Kinnaur, Lahaul and Spiti, Shimla and Chamba districts witnessed mild to moderate snowfall on Tuesday night. Keylong town experienced 4cms of fresh snowfall, where as 10 to 15 cms snow was reported in the Rohtang Pass (13050 ft).

Keylong in Lahaul and Spiti district was the coldest in the state with the minimum temperature at -13.7c, while it was -5.5c in Kalpa in Kinnaur district.

Canada Cold Wave dangerous !

Low temperatures of -30c is making eastern Canada shiver.
Temperatures have fallen so low that authorities are warning that condition
s may be life threatening.
When the wind-chill factor is added into the equation, temperatures felt as low as -40c, according to the Meteorological Service in Fredericton, New Brunswick. As little as 10 minutes out in the open could lead to lethal freezing, forecasters warned.

From Mark's Blog, a very interesting (and informative) video. or, if unable to open, see from Mark's Blog.

Cold pushes life to the extremes (Boston Globe):A balloon stuck with a sharp object does not pop; it deflates slowly. Hot water tossed in the air turns to steam; if any of it lands, it immediately turns to ice. Need a tack hammer? A banana will do the job.
Things change when it is minus -29c,. That was clear early yesterday in this Central Massachusetts town 35 miles northwest of Worcester.

With an overnight low of -30c, Athol was at ground-less-than-zero of the boreal blast that blew in from Canada. Cars left in the cold overnight sputtered. Exposed extremities started to freeze in seconds flat. Battery-operated cameras and global positioning systems died

By Mark Vogan

Thunderstorms Make Antimatter: Very Interesting reading linking Space and Meteorology.Check Space News Page .

Brad Lyon gives a rundown of the current La Niña and how it has affected precipitation and temperature.

You can watch it here:

Discussion of the 2010-2011 La Niña

Discussion of the 2010-2011 La Niña

About this video:
"IRI's Brad Lyon discusses the 2010-2011 La Niña and how it has affected precipitation and temperature patterns around the world.

The Earth Institute's International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) presents its monthly Climate, Forecast and Impacts Briefing. The monthly briefing provides regular updates on the current state of the climate system (with emphasis on seasonal to interannual variability), the latest seasonal forecasts, and recent climate-related impacts."


Snowfall in Nagaland !
After Kashmir, H.P, Utteranchal, Sikkim, West Bengal and Arunachal, Nagaland becomes the 7th. Indian State to receive snow this winter.

A cold wave has been sweeping Nagaland for the past two weeks, bringing the mercury down to 1c.Nagaland was experiencing such a cold wave and snow across the state after a long time.
Kohima, the State Capital was at 3c on Tuesday, which is 6c below normal.
Mount Saramati, the highest peak in Nagaland, on the Indo-Myanmar border and Mount Japfu, just 20km from Kohima, are covered with snow.

The Dzukou valley, which is tucked behind the Japfu range and is located about 30km south of Kohima, is also swathed in snow.Sources from Aghunato town in Zunheboto district said the tap water was frozen because of the extreme cold and there has been snowfall in and around the town.

Snowfall was also reported from Atoizu town and its surrounding areas under Zunheboto district and Pfutsero subdivision under Phek district.

Monday, January 24, 2011

Vagaries Forecast Page Updated

Winter is all but over, and very much persisting.Today's lowest temperatures in the N.Hemisphere say it all !And of-course we have read about the severe cold in Canada.

Lows as on Monday (24th. Jan) morning.

Lowest in India: Shyok: -36c.
Kashmir:Leh: -20c, Kargil: -19c, Gulmarg: -10.4c, Pahalgam: -10.3c and Srinagar: -4.2c.
H.P: Keylong: -16.7c.
Lowest in the Northern Plains: Adampur (Punjab): 2.3c

Lowest in Nepal: Jomsom: -8c

Lowest in Pakistan: Kalam (NWFP): -13c.

Lowest in Asia:
Ojmjakon (Russia): -50c
Ilirnej (Russia): -48c
Sejmcan (Russia): -47c
Gandan Huryee (Mongolia): -47c

Lowest in North America:
Thomsen River (Northwest Territories): -47c
Noatak ( Alaska): -45°
Hall Beach (AP) (Nunavut): -45c
Pond Inlet (AP) (Nunavut): -44c
Nuiqsut (Alaska): -44c

Lowest in Europe:
Velsk (Russia): -33c
Tihvin (Russia): -31c
Thule/Qanaq (Greenland): -28c

Lowest in U.K.:Cairngorm: -4c.
South Bay SST at 28c. Winds along Eastern Coast of Sri Lanka gathering speed, and currently at 25 knots/hour. Projected Easterly Wave set to precipitate heavy rains there from 26th. Jan.


Sunday, January 23, 2011

Muscat had some light to medium rainfall today, Saturday. It was occasional drizzles in the afternoon thru evening, keeping the max restricted to 22c on Saturday.

The entire Sub-Continent will have an absolute dry weather spell from 23rd. till the 27th.

No W.D. in the Northern regions, and the Easterly wave may initially precipitate rains in Sri Lanka, and maybe the South T.N. coast, but after the 28th.

Hence, it would not be out of place to expect the days to be a little above normal in the region, or in some regions, as shown in the vagaries forecast map updated today.
Kathmandu's day temperature could climb back to 21/22c next 3/4 days.

Nights, in the entire region, will be in the normal range during this period, (including the northern hills).

Saturday, January 22, 2011

Deserves Home Page Publishing !!

Mark, when you announce
International Falls, Minnesota hits 46 below zero this morning, coldest since January 1968!"-

You've got me frozen and Numb !

Must read our Partner's report on the Freeze, if that's enough to describe the cold, and get a first hand experience of the current N.American Artic Weather !

This explains it all...and I like this comparison.. !.
"-46F is 78 degrees below freezing

-46F is 123 degrees colder than the current temperature in Ventura, California (77F at 2PM CST)

-46F is 136 degrees colder than 90F"

Must read on..doesn't come often..thankfully !!

Friday, January 21, 2011

Check Vagaries Forecast Page– Updated with Comparison on Friday.

Latest Snippet:
Secondary low (to W.D.) formed on the Rajasthan/Pakistan border, larger portion into Sindh. Possibility of cloudy weather in South Rajasthan and light rain in some areas on 21/22.
An Easterly wave may get some momentum in the Bay and move towards Sri Lanka. Possibility of precipitation nearing Eastern Sri Lanka by Monday,24th.

Thursday, January 20, 2011

Precipitation recorded in NW Pakistan on Thursday, 20th. Quetta measured 5 mms and Dal Bandin 1.4 mms.
As per the prediction, rain has also been reported from the coastal regions west of Karachi.Due to the partly cloudy skies today, Karachi temperatures varied between 28c and 11c today, 4c higher than what we saw on the 17th.

Next 2 days, though the W.D. will move away, rainfall will be restricted to the coastal regions, west of Karachi.
Adjoining coastal regions of Oman, including Muscat, can get precipitation.

Cold..Colder...Extreme cold ..N.Hemisphere Freezing all Over ! For details and Our Partner's blog, go to International Page updated now !

Prof Slingo claimed that this was merely a local event, “very much confined to the UK and Western Europe”. Do these Met Office experts ever look beyond those computer models which tell them that 2010 was the second hottest year in history? Only a few days after she made this remark, the east coast of the USA suffered one of the worst snowstorms ever recorded. There have been similar freezing disasters in south China, Japan, central Russia and right round the northern hemisphere.

The only evidence the Met Office and its warmist allies can adduce to support their belief in the warmth of 2010 is that in certain parts of the world, such as Greenland, Baffin Island and the southern half of Hudson Bay, it was warmer than average. Yet even there temperatures are currently plummeting: Hudson Bay and Baffin Island are rapidly freezing, at well below zero.

"The desperate attempt to establish 2010 as an outstandingly warm year alsorelies on increasingly questionable official data records, such as that run by Dr James Hansen, partly based on large areas of the world which have no weather stations (more than 60 per cent of these have been lost since 1990). The gaps are filled in by the guesswork of computer models, designed by people who prefer the angle in showing that the Earth is continuing to warm".

Reproduced from Rajan's blog to help you vote on the Vagaries current Poll.

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Check Partner’s Latest Update on Europe


By Mark Vogan

The Lows In India as on Wednesday, 19th. Jan.

Kashmir: Shyok: -30c, Kargil: -22c, Leh: -19c, Pahalgam:-14.6c, Gulmarg: -13.6c. Srinagar: -5.2c.

H.P.: Darcha: -18.5c, Keylong: -11c ( -4.4c as the, and Manali: -5.8c.

It seems that snow is going to break its previous all records. Lahaul-Spiti and Manali is receiving mild snow but Rohtang Pass has already received more than 18 feet snow. In fact, people in Manali and Lahaul-Spiti are fed up of snowfall. They are longing for some sunny days.

Lowest in Punjab: Adampur:-0.6c.

Musoorie froze today at 0.2c, while Nainital recorded 1.7c as the lowest.

Meanwhile, in Arunachal,, heavy snowfall disrupted normal life in Tawang and several other districts.Several feet of snow covered the entire Tawang township.

Several tourists were stranded at Tawang and Dirang inWest Kameng district following heavy snowfall at Jung andSella Pass respectively.

Snowfall was also reported from West Siang, Lower DibangValley and Bomdila districts.

Awaiting the arrival of a fresh W.D. by 21st. into India, and tomorrow, 20th, over Pakistan.

Check the 3 hrs accumulated rain image (as a link on this page) for eastward movement of latest actual current rainfall

W.D. is today precipitating light rain in Dubai. The city is having light rain since 6 pm local time Wednesday. Rains are likely tomorrow in Dubai and Oman.

Not expected to penetrate much beyond extreme west Nepal. Kathmandu had a pleasant day temperature at 17.4c.

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Check Vagaries Forecast Page for Summary. Mumbai Page Updated.

A W.D. is expected in Northern India by the 21st of Jan. Precipitation in Kashmir, H.P and hills of Utterakhand on 21st/22nd.

Prior to that, on the 20th, Pakistan could get rain/snow in the regions above 30N.Light rain along the Coast west of Karachi on the 21st. Partly cloudy for Karachi next 3 days, meaning temperatures going up.

Rain/snow in extreme western Nepal on 21st.

Central India, will see a rise in temperatures on the 19/20 as the winds turn Eastwards.

After the 22nd, when the winds revert back to the NW directions, these regions can expect a fall in temperatures

Sunday, January 16, 2011

Latest Feedback on snowfall in Nepal received from Neeraj here.

Sunday, 16th. Jan, sees Severe Temperatures in North India:

Kashmir: Shyok: -31c, Drass: -23c, Pahalgam: -16.1c, Gulmarg:-14.2c, Kargil: -13.4c and Leh:-8c.

Today, Sunday, it was the Valley which shivered, and Ladakh region was a bit “better”. The sudden plunge in the minimum temperature across the Valley was due to the heavy snowfall on Friday,

In H.P. Keylong was coldest in the state at -12.7c. Kalpa was at -9c, and snowfall on Saturday was heavy in some areas.

Shimla experiencing its coldest night of the season on Saturday. The capital saw 5 cm of snow too on Saturday. Water in taps in residential areas located in Shimla's US Club and Jakhu hills remained frozen throughout the day.

On Saturday, Uttarakhand with the higher reaches received heavy snowfall. There was heavy snowfall in Garhwal and Kumaon Himalayas including Badrinath, Kedarnath, Gangotri, Yamunotri, Auli, Nandadevi. Rainfall coupled with hailstorm in lower hills and plain areas intensified the cold conditions in the state. The state capital Dehra Dun, which also received a hailstorm followed by rainfall, recorded a maximum temperature of 14c, four notches below normal.

South India:

Cold wave conditions in interior Karnataka and A.P. prevailed on Saturday/Sunday.Temperatures could drop in Bangalore next 2 nights.

Agumbe was 7c on Saturday, while Rentachintala, Belgaum Airport and Haveri recorded the lowest minimum temperature of 9c.

The Nilgiris are witnessing low temperatures, with Ooty touching 4c on Sunday. With more clear nights in the next few days, frost has been forecast for the Nilgiri hills region.

With the upper winds set to change from the prevailing North- Easterly direction, I see the NE monsoon winds retreating from the region in a couple of days.

Nepal: As forecasted, hilly areas of Kathmandu witnessed snowfall on Saturday night/Sunday owing to the western disturbance.

This is the second time this year that the hilly areas around Kathmandu have witnessed mild snowfall, the first one being in late December considered normal.

However, Neeraj from Khatmandu mentions of very light snow in the city.

Quote Neeraj: There was light rainfall in kathmandu today. It had drizzled a little early in the morning, the day was mostly cloudy and it started to rain at around 3:45 this afternoon. There are reports of widespread snow in most of the mountains surrounding the Kathmandu valley, and interestingly enough there was slight snow flurry in the valley floor too..It was not there in the city center but many locations in the outskirts reported seeing dusting of little bit of snow. I was lucky enough to have just two flakes land on my jacket..Just two flakes, and then it was all rain".

Snowfall in Manang and Lamjung since Saturday evening has grounded flights in Manang and stranded trekkers along the Annapurna circuit. Snowfall has also affected normal life in Lumle of Kaski district.

The W.D. has moved as a very feeble current into the NE states of India, and should fizzle out in a day.


Yesterday’s projection of -1c in Islamabad proved correct. The capital was below freezing (-1c) on Sunday morning, and Karachi was at a low of 7c on Sunday.The Lowest in the plains was again at Nokkundi, which froze at -3.9c.

The below normal temperatures will rise to normal levels, as a W.D. approaches the Sub-Continent.

Saturday, January 15, 2011

U.S: All but 1 State has snow !Report on International Page just put up.

Mumbai Forecast Updated. International Page covers Mark on U.K. Weather.

Covering the Kashmir Valley with copious snowfall on Friday,(Banihal 5 cms, Srinagar 4cms).

Trikuta hills, which houses the cave shrine of Mata Vaishnodevi in Jammu and Kashmir’s Reasi district, has received fresh snowfall.

There was fresh snowfall in Trikuta hills – abode of the Shrine. A thick blanket of snow has come up around the Shrine

The W.D. precipitation was today concentrated in H.P.

Shimla was lashed by rains, sleet, and snowfall today, while Mcleod Ganj near Dharamsala, recorded 20 cm of snow.

Theog and Kufri in Shimla district recorded over 60 cm of snow, while Narkanda received over 130 cm of snow.

Bangana was wettest in the region with 50 mm of rains while Hamirpur and Mehre recorded 46 and 41 mm of rains.

On Friday, the W.D. has moved east into India and is now moving away eastwards again, creeping into Nepal from Saturday/Sunday.

Another W.D could be knocking on thedoors from the 19th. of January.

Meanwhile, rainfall amounts were good in Pakistan, with the prominent figures for Friday/Saturday being:

Dir 34mm , Balakot 28mm, MalamJaba 24mm, Garidupatta 19mm, Saidu sharif 17mm, Chitral 12mm, Islamabad (Saidpur) 10mm, Rawalpindi, Peshawar 08mm. Snowfall recorded: Kalam 20 cms, Murree 06 inch.

Cold wave conditions have commenced in the Balochistan and Sindh regions. Night temperatures have generally fallen by 2-7c in the region.

These were 6-9c below normal in Balochistan and by 2-5c so, elsewhere in the region.

With Nokundi in the plains dropping to -4.5c on Saturday, nights are expected to drop further with Islamabad possibly going down to -1c and Karachi could see 5/6c in the next 2 nights.

Again, misty/foggy conditions in Karachi on 17th. night/18th. morning could be expected.

"The solid record of La Niña strength only goes back about 50 years and this latest event appears to be one of the strongest ones over this time period,” said Climatologist Bill Patzert of JPL. “It is already impacting weather and climate all around the planet.”

“Although exacerbated by precipitation from a tropical cyclone, rainfalls of historic proportion in eastern Queensland, Australia have led to levels of flooding usually only seen once in a century,” said David Adamec, Oceanographer at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md. “The copious rainfall is a direct result of La Niña’s effect."

Friday, January 14, 2011

Day Long Snow keeps Srinagar day’s high at 2.6c on Friday. and Banihal freezes at 0c with full day snowfall. ( Vagaries blog of 10th. Jan).

Gulmarg, the coldest place in the region last night at -8c, received maximum snowfall. Light snowfall was also recorded at Pahalgam.

Rain/snow in H.P. Keylong at a high of -3c with snow, and Kufri 2c. Dalhousie sees 3c as the high.

The Rohtang Pass recorded 100 cm of snow till this evening while Solang Nallah received 25 cm of snow. Lahaul and Spiti valley got covered by 80 to 100 cm of snowfall

The tourist resorts of Manali, Narkanda, Chail and Kufri experienced 10 to 15 cm of fresh snow and snowfall was continuing.

Shimla also had a mild snowfall in the morning and theJakoo peak, highest point in the town, recorded 15 cm of snow while Ridge and other places had 4 to 5 cm of snow. Shimla town recorded 2 cm snow since 7.30 am this morning.

Isolated rainfall in Haryana and Punjab.

Check Mark’s Blog: La-Nina effect of flooding in Sri Lanka and Australia.

Thursday, January 13, 2011

Vagaries Forecast Page Updated.

Fluctuation at its Extreme !

Day Temperatures in the Northern Sub Continent shoot up to above Normal levels from very much below Normal !

Just a few days ago Vagaries was raving about the days being 12-14c below the normal range in Northern regions of the Sub Continent. Lows, like 7c and 8c, some records of an all time coldest Day, were mentioned here, and Delhi was shivering at 10c, in our last write up.

Now, suddenly, the days have shot up to26.4c in the capital (Palam) and 4c above the normal range in most of the region.

It is one thing of things going back to normalcy, to comfortable levels. But this is a straight jump to above normal levels. This is what vagaries is all about !!

Thursday’s map of the day temperatures and the anomaly shows it all.

I would call it the Pre W.D. Heat.

W.D. will start precipitating rain/snow in the Kashmir region, H.P. hills and West utterakhand from Friday. Plains of Punjab, Haryana, Utterakhand and Delhi will start getting the rains from Friday, maybe by evening. That will keep this sudden spurt in the day temperatures short lived. Fog expected to reappear in Delhi after 16th. Jan.

By Saturday, I expect the W.D. effect to spread to Nepal. The depth of the W.D. will make it penetrate upto Central regions of Nepal. Katmandu, cloudy from Friday, with some rain on Saturday.

The abrupt spurt in the days is not restricted to the North. The effect is felt far down thru Mah. into the Southern States.

The highest day temperature in India today, 13th. Jan. was at Mangalore. Goa and Ratnagiri, at 34c, followed by Solapur reaching 33c. Cochin and Hyderabad topped 32c.

Incidentally, Pattaya, , alongwith the Indian Cities, also at 34c was the highest in Asia today.

The hottest day in Pakistan on Thursday was 29c at Lasbella and Turbat.

Mentioning of Maximum temperatures on the Vagaries is meant only to indicate a very sharp “overnite” jump in the days, and should normalize by Friday/Saturday.

Please Excuse for a short unannounced break. A sudden trip to Mahableshwar -:))
Update of Home page and Forecast will be up today by 10.45 pm. 

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Pre W.D. rise in temperature in NW India on Wednesdsay.
W.D. will precipitate rain/snow in North and NW India from thursday evening.
90B will move SW, after pouring heavy rains over Sri Lanka. May skip T.N.


Monday, January 10, 2011

Spotlight on Cold Days Trend griping NW and Central India:

OMG! The days are getting really cold..yes…days temperatures in the NW plains and Northern regions of the sub-continent are lower than the day temperatures in the Kashmir Valley and Hills of Simla !

The humid N winds sweeping the Northern plains, and forming of ground fog due to a stagnant high pressure ridge sitting in the region (1016 mb), but evading the hills, are responsible for the cold biting days.

I have seen cold days in these regions before, but this spell is longer than the previous ones.

Unfortunately, this spell has taken its toll with almost 100 dead in India due to the cold.

On Sunday, 9th. Jan,:

In Punjab, Gurdaspur (AWS) measured only 6.5c as the highest in the day, Patiala 7.4c,

Kaithal (AWS) in Haryana recorded a high of 6.5c and Karnal’s high was 7.4c on Sunday !!

The maximum and Minimum temperatures on Sunday:

Amritsar:8.0c (-11c) -2.2c, Chandigarh: 8.1c -0.6c, Ambala:8.3c (-12c) – 4.5c,

New Delhi S’Jung: 11c (-10c) – 5.0c. The AWS station at Delhi (Mungeshpur) reached a high of 8.8c on Sunday, and Delhi (Narela) could manage 8.9c as the high today.

The NCMRWF station at Noida recorded a max of 10.3c today (Sunday).

However, as mentioned, the hilly regions are in the “normal” range.

The lower Himalayas hill stations (all over 6000 ft ASL) were not much lower than the plains, in fact, higher in some cases in the day on Sunday

In H.P., Solan was coldest in the lower hills with minimum temperature of -1.0c C while Sundernagar, Bhuntar, Dharamsala, Mandi and Una recorded a low of 2.c, 3..0c C, 3.3c, 3.5c and 4.7crespectively

Srinagar: Maximum 9.5c, Dalhousie was 6.5c.

In the Utterakhand hills, Nainital was high at 11.6c and Mussoorie at 9.5c.

The nights are bitterly cold too;

On the 9th. of Jan, the lowest temperatures in the plains were: :

Nal and Suratgarh : ­0.6c, Agra 0.6c, Sidhi 0.8c, Phalodi 1.0c.

Panna (AWS) in M.P. was the cold at 0.4c,

Ferozpur in Punjab froze at 1c and Faridkot touched 1.3c..

Across in the plains of Pakistan too, the day temperatures have taken a dip.

Sialkot touched a high of 8c and Multan was at 10c

Similar trend is seen in Pakistan, with Muree, a hill station at 6000 ft ASL also reaching a high of 10c.

The lowest in the plains of Pakistan, was in Sindh, with Sibbi again, freezing at -2.5c !!

Well, like I mentioned in yesterday’s blog, I surely see this easing up from the 13th. In India and Pakistan.

With the pressure ridge dropping to 1010 mb initially, and thence to 1008 mb in the region, A fairly good W.D. is on the anvil, and is expected to precipitate rain/snow in Northern and NW regions of the Sub-Continent from the 13th. of Jan. It would be peaking in precipitation on the 14th.and 15th.

The current easterly wave is very active over Sri Lanka and extreme south of India.

It will penetrate into the Southern tip of India from Monday, but weaken subsequently.

I expect rains in southern T.N. and Kerala for a couple of days.

Sunday, January 09, 2011

Snow Closes Scotland airport.

Read more on Mark's Blog on the updated International page.

Mumbai page updated.

The Day temperatures continue to remain abnormally below normal in U.P, Punjab,haryana and Northern M.P.

Today, it is Agra's turn to set a new low !Agra sets a new record for a cold day, with the maximum temperature on saturday not pushing above 7.7c.This could well be the coldest day temperature ever in Agra. I have yet to verify this,but could well be a record.And this is 14c below normal !

Most stations in Punjab, Haryana and U.P. are 10/12c below normal in their Saturday temperature recordings.Bikaner saw 12.5c in the day, 10c below normal.The extent can be viewed in this IMD chart.

However, for the night readings, the coldest in the country on saturday was Shyok at -27c,followed by Leh at -13.6c. A weak W.D.has eased the cold wave conditions in the Kashmir valley, where the upper reaches also experienced light to moderate snowfall.Leh is experiancing partially cloudy weather.

In Rajasthan, Bikaner airport froze at -2.3c,Mt. abu also saw -2c, while Pilani was 0.5c.
In U.P, Sultanpur was the lowest at 1.4c.

Surely, temperatures and severe conditions are seen easing, specially in the day, in NW India , including Delhi, after /around 11th. Jan. Emergence of clouds will result in temperatures rising, and foggy conditions easing out.

In Pakistan, Extremely thick fog has caused massive disturbance to traffic flow on roads and flight schedule in the capital besides upper parts of the country and interior Sindh.

The twin cities of Islamabad and Rawalpindi were enveloped by thick fog, and air traffic suspended.

In the Punjab province,the worst hit areas are Multan, Bhawalpure, Bhawalnagar, Kahniwal, Chhiccha Watni, Jhang and others. Lahore had a high of 8c today.

In the interior of Sindh including Hyderabad, Sukkur, Larkana,and surrounding areas are in grip of severe cold and mist.Routine life has been badly affected by this.On saturday, Sibbi with -0.6c was the coldest at night and the high was at 13c..Karachi continued with a low of 8c, though it was expected to rise to 10c by Saturday.Quetta in Balochistan freezes at -7.5c on Saturday.
Temperatures will rise after 11th. Jan as clouds appear in the Northern regions.

Friday, January 07, 2011

Cold ! Cold Wave creeps into Maharashtra.Reported readings of 7th. Jan 2011
New record for Ahmadnagar.
The Minimum temperatures of Friday, 7th. Jan :
Ahmadnagar: 1.7c, lowest ever. previous record, 2.2c on 7th. Jan 1945.

In H.P. the Surajtal and Chandratal lakes and 70-km stretch of Chandrabhaga river, a tributary of Spiti, have completely frozen.
Lowest was at kelong: -15c

Haryana; Narnaul: 0.5c,

Rajasthan; Mt. Abu: -3c, Jaisalmer: 1.1c,Bikaner airport; -2.9c, Bikaner; 0c -lowest ever record retouched,
M.P.: Rewa -1.2c, Pachmarhi -0.9c, Umaria -0.2c,

Orissa: In Daringbadi, Kandhamal district, minimum temperature was recorded -1c with thin ice forming on roof-tops and foliages
Daltongunj ;3.8c

Kashmir: Leh: -16.2c.
However, parts of the Dal Lake, nallahs, taps and other water bodies remained frozen.
Ignoring the warning of the administration not to walk on frozen surface, people, including children and tourists, could be seen posing for photographs on the frozen surface.
And the days ? Check the day temperatures on the 7th. jan here. Especially the many 7c's in Punjab recorded as the day's high !

In Pakistan, the Sindh region remains in a cold grip. Coldest in Sindh was at Nokundi which froze at -3.3c on Friday.Sibbi at -1c remains cold, with Islamabad at 0c.Karachi was at 7c on friday.In the Baloch hills, it was -9c at Kalat.

Some rain/snow expected in extreme west of Nepal on Saturday. The temperatures could fall marginally by a degree in the west and central regions and Terai. Khatmandu was at a minimum of 2c on Friday.
Cold Hits Maharashtra
Overnight sharp drop in night temperatures, by as much as 7/8c in some cities.
Prominent Readings of Minimum on Friday Morning: Ahamadnagar: 1.7c, Pune 5.3c, Nagpur/Akola: 5.7c Aurangabad: 6.9c.
Mumbai S'Cruz: 13.6c.


Thursday, January 06, 2011

This current cold wave in Northern/NW and Central India is unprecedented, and its intensity has, I must admit, taken me by surprise !

-1.3c at Bikaner airport on Thursday, 1c at Jaipur and Jaisalmer and a temperature range between 7c in the day and 4c in the night at Kanpur on thursday, 6th. Jan !

0.6c at Agra and 0c at Daringbadi, Orrisa !
-4c recorded at Mt. Abu on the 4th, and 3.7c at Delhi on that night.

And of-course, Leh was -23c with Kargil freezing at -18c a few days back, and people walking across the frozen Dal Lake in Srinagar, where it was -5c om wednesday, as the shikaras were stuck.

In Pakistan, Sindh, adjoining Rajasthan, was the hard hit region. Sibbi slipped to -0.5c and Karachi port city measured 8c.Northern pakistan Punjab region is fog hit, with days as cold as 9/10c. Islamabad froze at -1c on Thursday morning.

I think, this cold wave will slip out of sindh and central Pakistan by Friday, and move eastwards, and Rajasthan and NW India will have a day more to face the brunt.

By the weekend, things will ease out by 2/3c in the NW and Central and Northern Indian areas.The core cold wave region will have shifted out of this regions by saturday.High clouds (cirrus and alto-cirrus) will cover the NW areas of India and adjoining pakistan this weekend.

Gujarat and the Konkan coast may see temperatures dipping on the weekend by 2/3c due to strong Northerlies.

Mumbai, which is seeing expected rise in temperatures since the last 3 days, will get some relief this weekend.
A fall in temperatures by 2/3 c is on the cards this weekend, with refreshing Northerly winds.
Highs will drop from the present 32c to 29/30c and lows from the present 22c to 18/19c.
Severe Cold Wave has on Thursday, 6th. Jan, spread towards SE.
The IMD minimum temperature map shows the regions gripped in less than 2c and less than 4c, the extreme regions.

Much against Vagaries' predictions,The severe cold wave anomaly "tongue " has moved into more regions towards the SE direction, and eventually covered up the whole of Rajasthan.Now engulfing new areas in Vidharbha and M.P.

In Vidharbha, the low recorded in Wardha was 5.8c, Akola today morning dropped to 6.0c and Nagpur saw 6.3c.
In M.P. Gwalior dipped to 1.6c.
In adjoining U.P. Agra slide doen to 0.6c on Thursday morning.
In Rajasthan the cold intensified further, with Jaipur recording 1.4c, 7c below normal, Jaisalmer 1.2c and Bikaner saw 1.4c.

Detailed analysis tonite after more readings pour in.

Wednesday, January 05, 2011

Vagaries weekend forecast updated.

Cold Wave in Northern and Central India.

Nights were in for severe cold in the Northern and central regions of India.

Night temperatures in large areas in the North and

central India are 4/6 c below normal (cold wave ) and severely affected areas in the more than 6c below the normal.

Anything more than 6c below normal is taken as “severe Cold wave” as per IMD norms

Very low Minimums on Wednesday morning:

Kashmir: Leh: -23c, Kargil: -18c, Pahalgam: -11.6c,

Quazigund: -10.6c, Gulmarg: -9.5c.

M.P.: Umaria 0c, Bhopal 2.3 (-8)

Rajasthan: Mt. Abu: -4c, Bikaner 1.2c (-4c), Pilani; 1.5c, Jaipur 2.3c (-6),

U.P.: Churk ; 0.6c

Jharkhand: Kanke: 0.5c, Hazaribagh: 2.8c and Ranchi: 4.2c.

On Wednesday, 5th.Jan, even the day temperatures were abnormally below normal in the regions of NW India and stretching into the central parts. Severe effects were felt in U.P, Punjab, Delhi and North M.P.

Max temp anomaly

Very Low Day maximums on Wednesday, 5th. jan: Chandigarh recorded its coldest day ever today, making it colder than Srinagar and Shimla,

Jammu: 7c (-12), Chandigarh: 7.4c, Amritsar 8.3 (-11), Ambala 8.4c (-12), Kanpur 9.4c, Bareilly; 9.6c (-12c), New Delhi (PLM) 12.1c, Gwalior 12.6c (-10).

To show the extent of the day’s cold, Srinagar was at a high of 7c and Shimla 14.9c today.

Here we have days as much as 12c below normal.

In Pakistan, the Sindh region is under a severe cold spell. Sibbi was 13c at the high and 0c as the low.(It was 51c in Sibbi on 26th. May 2010).

Faisalabad’s range was between 10c and 5c.